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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.
As did the Yank (ensembles & deterministic) but it’s since gone cold on it as of a coupla days ago.
GFS deterministic had signs of it back in the 18z run this morning but very weak like most of the EC ensemble.
Landfall at this point is most likely in the Pilbura.
Euro ensemble showing large spread in initialization position which obviously will have repercussions on end track. Overall theme is a fairly simple steer if/when a system does initialize. A track over land is also entirely possible.
Overall not a lot of enthusiasm from this model or others in what looks to be a fairly marginal environment for development.
Deterministic models still developing this system perhaps a little bit more aggressively than their respective ensembles. Might be seeing enhanced ventilation channel courtesy of approaching upper trough that will likely also impart some hefty shear on the cyclone. I have seen these poleward tracking TC's in the Pilbara intensify quite rapidly however so worth watching obviously.
If we see an overland track of this system it would firmly shift our countries heat engine from WA to a more central location I don't know what impact that may have on us though.
GFS is aggressively developing this system early next week and recurving it onto the Pilbara coast by Friday. Ensemble solutions are still widely spread from the western Pilbara back to Kimberley with intensity outcomes very much determined by differing times over water.
Euro operational and its ensemble have moderated considerably in its latest run.
Up in Broome atm for the chrissie break, have been enjoying almost daily thunderstorms and the occasional rain. Very hot and humid and has that pre-cyclone feel.
Driving back to Karratha around new years so will be back for all the action. Can't do images etc atm, but EC, GFS and BOM are all in pretty good agreeance today on a Karratha crossing, Friday 3rd Jan. Interesting times!
Both GFS and EC liking this for early in the new year.
Nice to see you back on the forum @StormyLee
We'll likely be poking around down there ourselves as we do. It's been a busy year covering northern hemisphere storms but it will be nice to get back down to the "backyard" so to speak.
00z Euro back to being relatively bullish with development right up until landfall.
Looking like a green light for now.
The Canuck also favours it. Good Polar Longwave inducement/involvement.
Euro ensemble, much more moderate intensities.
One can hope, need something to 'let off some steam' so to speak, in the filthy heat low that is central northern & central Australia at present.
Talking about Marble Bar yesterday, as my old man said "Faarrrkkk, the bloody rocks were cooked when I was up there three months ago...."
Brother is based in Darwin, talking about how much last season & the endless build this season has taken out of the spirit of the town. One major factor in him considering uprooting his young family & heading for more temperate climates.
Hi Rabid, you really have expressed it so well there when you say "how much last season and the endless build this season has taken out of the spirit of the town".
Even here in Brisbane I feel somewhat like that. We had no winter in Brisbane and now we are coming into summer without any distinction at all.
To me it is like every meal is just rice...with nothing to inspire or look forward to.
It really does drain the life and spirit out of you.
Let's hope this terrible weather is soon behind us for the next 200 years or so
I know this is not in the Australian TC AOR, but as we don't have a more general SH thread will post here.
Cyclone Sarai named overnight by Fiji Met. May go to Cat 2.
HWRF still has it labelled as FOURP. Forecast peak intensity around 29 Dec 1200 UTC.
The GFS is fairly uninterested in this WA thing keeping it relatively weak and thus influenced less by the upper level flow, leaving it to track towards the upper westerlies. Increasing VWS in the vicinity would take care of it very quickly if this solution were to verify.
Much will depend on the initial sharpening of vorticity as the wave pushes away from the Top End coast early on Sunday. Most models agree in a large MSC tracking offshore during Saturday night, its evolution offshore may have a bit to do with the initial development or otherwise of this system.
12z Euro ensemble.
Some of these pressures being depicted by the deterministic seem far too low in my opinion. We noticed similar biases in the EC with several of the northern hemisphere storms we chased this year.
Decent potential for a rather epic mid-January of this happens:
MJO is one reactive model a couple of days ago it had such a weak pulse, now it's all guns blazing. Expected though given the relentless Heat Low over AUS. Hopefully things can go Queensland's way with the next burst of tropical activity.
Euro has dropped any significant development now leaving just an open wave to wash out further west.
Develops just a dirty big monsoon low now a few days later. Nice rain maker.
When I checked 12z runs a few hours ago EC, Access, and CMC were aligned and GFS an outlier. CMC and Access still on it with the 00z run, so it’ll be interesting to see next 12z run.
Yeah personally I don't give this much chance at all to be honest. The cross-equatorial component is arriving far too late to interact with the Rossby and the upper trough amplifies a little early introducing heavy shear and bucket loads of dry air further west down the Pilbara even IF a closed circulation was able to stack up. The window that the Euro was developing this system in always appeared quite small before conditions turned fairly hostile.
Time will tell obviously.
A damn good assessment of the models fragility in our current climate.
Dirty big monsoon lows & their incumbent wide spread of moisture is what our continent is crying for at the moment, not some tightly wound up, glorified willy willy....
TC Sarai near Fiji expected to peak in next day or two, and may still deliver some decent rain over there pic 1 forecast rain swath, and pic 2 last 24hrs rain swath.
I would sure like to get a 20 inch (500mm) rain event here some time soon, but anyway for now it is Fiji’s time.
Anything tau180+ I’m not even looking at right now. Just too much uncertainty and gets ones hopes up unfairly!
God there is some crap being thrown around the interwebs right now. Just saw a GFS image for Tau336+ being shown with no relevant disclaimers nor even time being displayed as scaremongering crap. Grrrr.
Yeah it seems to be the new thing these days where all these FB wx pages throw a bunch of darts around the internet in the hope that one day they will hit something and be able to give themselves a very public pat on the back for correctly forecasting something that is climatologically likely to occur anyway.
There does appear to be some signs of an increase in cross-equatorial flow beyond day 10 but as you say, way too many variables at that kind of lead time even consider what consequence, if any this may have on tropical weather in our part of the world.
One of the usual suspects on Facebook posted an EC chart @ 240hrs which showed a 936hpa TC on the WA coast with the label, "This could change."
No, this *will* change.
Yeah as I mentioned above there has been a very clear low pressure bias with the EC deterministic all season from what I have noticed. These low pressures being depicted by the operational runs are clearly moderated by referring to the ensemble products.
We have Sarai in the south Pacific!
What are the odds of Sarai reaching NZ North Island, even as a depression? Reason I'm asking is oldest telejoey is at day 1 of NZ scout Jamboree. Due home 08 Jan.
Hard to say.
Hard to say. It wouldn't surprise me if the low ended up drifting over warm blob of water East of NZ and intensified there again.
Re: nw WA system. Thinking any R/W seeded system lurking around the 10th will have E/conditions.
Almost nil. Strengthening ridge under it will make this a near impossible outcome.
7 day nasa GPM satellite rain accumulation
Tc Sarai delivered some solid totals, probably mostly over oceans, near Fiji.
A fair way away from the Australian area of reporting but still nice to see some Southern Hemisphere tropical disturbances continue
Anyone else eyeing off the burst of stronger trade winds over the equator? It gives the monsoon a push lower into the SH, and both EC and GFS even spawn a depression on the edge of this flow next weekend:
Yeah we're watching it mate. Nice to see some agreement regarding timing of this surge anyway. Some of the models doing some silly things but the general theme is that something is expected to wrap up on the eastern extent of the surge as early as next weekend. Solutions varying significantly after that as they should at this sort of lead time.
Appears the GFS wants to ring in the new year with all the bells and whistles
Jokes aside, EC ensemble is seeing a second system developing up near Darwin later in the forecast. The deterministic does manage to exploit a weakness in the STR and get this first system to the coast during the middle of next week which may have an affect on steering synoptics for any potential second development. Ensemble guidance does appear to be trending west though so a landfall of any LOW/TC in the medium term is certainly not a done deal with a track offshore as depicted by the GFS also a very real possibility.
Tau +120hr is my target for weather system chances. I will look at Tau+168hr for development potential, and beyond just for entertainment (sort of like models ‘playing computer games’)
Below forecast TPW around TAU+168 hrs. GFS and EC
Tropical equatorial rossby-wave cell.coupled with a mjo is the trigger for NW tc's.
equatoral r/w move east to west. Along the equator
East coast needs a fiji express howler to roll down the coast .Put those fires out.
Good signal on EC tonight. Circa 8-10th Jan starting to show something on major models.
GFS / Navgem hinting a NT storm,maybe also on atm.
NT development is also quite well represented in the EC ensemble, along with fairly solid agreement within the ensemble regarding the WA LOW/TC
Access has also been depicting a depression close to the NT before deepening it and tracking it out into the Timor Sea.
Now here's a rather promising MJO forecast:
Looks like enhanced convection in the right zones for an extended period of time:
GFS 18Z, looks like bringing the second TC/TS around 10 Jan just across land near Dampier Peninsula - Broome (edit sorry further North East than that location), then back out sea again, then back across land near Onslow - Karratha around 16 Jan with a 930 min pressure.
It is way too far out in lead time to take seriously at present (model gaming IMO). But I do wonder if such a scenario happened would it count as one or two TC landfall crossings for the season ?
GFS 18z had croker island under the pump.
Yeah I notice 00z is continuing with a similar theme putting a system near Darwin next week before tracking it off down to the north Kimberley, very similar to the Access solutions which are decidedly more conservative with development in the short to medium term and probably more believable.
Seems a little bit too aggressive with development in my opinion. Time will tell.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 2 January 2020
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 5 January 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak monsoon trough is expected to develop across the Arafura and Timor Seas during the weekend. A tropical low may form within the monsoon trough over the northern Timor Sea or Arafura Sea late in the weekend or early next week.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Although the movement and intensification of the tropical low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a tropical cyclone developing is expected to remain low during the first half of next week.