1. The Weather Forum has been re-arranged

    Find all the Day to Day threads in Daily & Chat - - There are now four main 'food groups' with no geo-based criteria. Please take note of the descriptions for clarification.

    This notice may be closed | Discussion about these changes
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Coronavirus #StayHome

    Official Advice

    - People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
    - If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
    - If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.

    Information Resources Mental Health Note: This announcement may be closed & This announcement will be reset every few days.
    Dismiss Notice

Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,443
    Likes Received:
    12,275
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I’d certainly use caution when using RMM indexes, they have been pretty wild in the past few months.

    But certainly a Phase 5-6-7 signal can be seen in mid-January:

    Certainly should see things start to improve on the tropical front in the next few weeks.

    EC Deterministic is dialling everything down for the moment:
     
  2. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Excellent chart animation @stormkite2000 and welcome to the forum. What is your location?
    IVT is a combination of wind and water vapour content that I find very interesting yet so hard to find.
    Span of chart going to and just beyond equator is useful as well to get a greater context.
     
    comet and stormkite2000 like this.
  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    FXXT01 EGRR 020408



    MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND



    SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS


    FXXT01 EGRR 020408



    MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND



    SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



    GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.01.2020



    NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

    FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.0S 120.3E



    VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

    -------------- -------- -------- --------

    00UTC 06.01.2020 17.2S 119.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

    12UTC 06.01.2020 18.2S 119.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 07.01.2020 19.2S 118.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 07.01.2020 20.5S 117.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 08.01.2020 21.4S 117.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE



    Selection_499.png

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/warnings

    So far they are onto one.

    UKMET 17 km Australia & NZ MSLP.gif







     
    #103 stormkite2000, Jan 2, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
    DDstorm, Orebound, comet and 2 others like this.
  4. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Models continue to converge with this WA development with most now bringing a large monsoon LOW or minimal TC onto the central Pilbara coast towards the middle of next week and likely delivering some very large rainfall amounts, particularly to points east of the circulations centre in moist onshore flow. GFS remains the exception with it continuing to portray a much deeper cyclone feeling mid-level steering flow for longer and subsequently ending up further down towards the NW Cape.

    I would suggest the West Kimberley coast in particular will see some extreme rainfall accumulations as it usually does in these set-ups.

    Access R



    In the long term EC and Access continue to suggest an increased likelihood of monsoon incursion on the Top End coast with both depicting a deep tropical LOW or TC sliding south near the NW coast dragging moderate monsoonal westerlies above it.

    Ensembles have a chook raffle as one would expect at this sort of lead time LOL

    Access R



    EC.

     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    00z GFS the model is consistent with it's runs.

    0-132hours




    132hr+ posted this back-end long range because i like the funky looping tc.
     
    Flowin, DDstorm and Orebound like this.
  7. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    UKMET and Access R currently sniffing around that general Dampier area during Wednesday and early Thursday, both have trended westward in the most recent run.

    All models are resolving the timing and amplitude of the passing shortwave just a little bit differently which will likely have some fairly significant affects on whether or not this system makes landfall. The GFS for instance continues to build in an extension that allows it to continue on its WSW trajectory but only subtle changes will allow it to track towards the weakness in the STR and get itself onto the coast too, conversely small changes could well cause the others to remain offshore......

    A weaker or undeveloped system will most likely drag itself over coast in my opinion which would be the best outcome from a rainfall perspective as I'm sure most would agree.



    Access.

     
  8. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    So if I go by post #6 page 1 of this thread next Ozzie tc may get the name Blake.
    Is he the sister of OMA from 2019, in relation to a landfall uncertainty or battle between EC and GFS?
     
    MegaMatch likes this.
  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    EC as usual should be given the most weight.



    EC thinks the ridge is weakened @84hrs on the run.

     
    Flowin and Orebound like this.
  10. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Yeah any of the members in the EC ensemble that develop the system in any way send it much further west too. Weaker members of course getting shoved ashore sooner by the prevailing monsoon flow steering a shallower vortex.

     
    MegaMatch, DDstorm and Flowin like this.
  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Just to capture an image in time before whatever happens in next two weeks happens.
    Near real time TPW estimate about 2 hrs old.
     
    MegaMatch, DDstorm, StormyLee and 2 others like this.
  12. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    GFS is now slotting into that ridge weakness I was mentioning earlier to fall in line with UKMET and Co. and coming ashore on Wednesday.

    Intensity is questionable obviously.

     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    Yeah the ceiling will be interesting, GFS atm thinks excellent upper-level conditions with no shear. It's depicting a organised tc upto 250mb. SST's are very warm. If the system does form and can stay away from land interaction it should get a shot @ RI with the wwb forsure. ATM its the ec and your opinion that carries the weight mr harris.

     
  14. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Yeah it will be interesting to see how the whole thing evolves. Agree that it certainly has a chance of being a significant system with a few days over open ocean however.

    As far as EC goes I suppose if it can isolate one of those vortices it should completely change it's solution, GFS was initially struggling with several vort maxes itself.

    It also appears the GFS have a hate on for the west Pilbara LOLLOLLOL

    Yes long term shenanigans of course.

     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    Yeah wow 06z run. Peak 120kts /10min windspeed. That's a violent nuclear grade system that would be pressing sub 900mb. Spectacular run.





    landfall 100kts/10min ws. High end cat5. Crazy storm on that run in any basin. Be this watching carefully.
     
  16. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Yeah but it’s GFS, in even in the new guise of FV3 GFS operationalised this year, I haven’t seen enough yet to say new GFS is any different to old GFS ‘habits’
     
    MegaMatch and StormyLee like this.
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    91S.INVEST 04 JAN 2020 0642Z


    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 113.5E, APPROXIMATELY 673 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF FLARING CONVECTION. A 031338Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS OF BROAD TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG, POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
     
    Flowin and DDstorm like this.
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    The Madden–Julian oscillation is on cue.



     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    xx_sat-en-304-0_2020_01_04_00_10_1291_279.png xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2020010318_7_10_200.png

    18Z euro nailed the rotation.
     
    Flowin likes this.
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574



    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 11.0S 113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
    422 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
    LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
    SHALLOW BANDING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WELL-ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL
    ROTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
    (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
    AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
    24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARDS TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
     
    Flowin likes this.
  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,048
    Likes Received:
    1,092
    The really good news is that there's been some great rains in inland WA already. Of note, Giles has had 58mm since yesterday and it's still raining...
     
    MegaMatch and Flowin like this.
  22. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
  23. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
  24. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    BoM are now issuing track maps
     
    stormkite2000 likes this.
  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    hwrf ooz run hwrf_nest_uv850_63.png
    Winds mix and filter down. run is alot tamer. landfalls kts weaker.
     
    Flowin and POW_hungry like this.
  26. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    708
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    GFS going for the most extreme of scenarios as usual in deepening this one to sub-980 hpa levels prior to landfall while others are a lot more steady on intensification. I seriously doubt even the new GFS has improved much here in the SH on its convective feedback issues its older brother always had, but we'll soon find out.

    edit: Just noticed GFS originally had it crossing as a 942hpa TC in its run 24 hours ago lol...so yeah, clearly it still struggles with convective feedback which is a shame. Even if it did stay offshore for longer I doubt it would bomb like GFS originally suggested it would.
     
    #126 MegaMatch, Jan 5, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2020
    WarrandyteWX and Flowin like this.
  27. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
  28. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Most models in Saturday’s 12z run going for landfall around Tuesday night, but Access G quite a bit later around Thursday morning.
     
  29. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    713
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    UKMET is low 970s



    EC low 980s

     
    Flowin, MegaMatch and stormkite2000 like this.
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    Yeah depending on land interaction. 12Z EPS EC was thinking along the same lines as the GFS as a maximum potential earlier solutions.

    xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2020010412_81_10_730.png


    .
     
    Flowin, MegaMatch and Orebound like this.
  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    Not a convective feedback issue. There is a official designated low. The convective feedback issue was the reason the GFS spun up phantom vorts in the extended periods. This is not the case here.
     
    Flowin and Orebound like this.
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    Been tagged by JTWC. 92S
     
    Flowin likes this.
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    RE: BOM Tropical low

    ABIO10 PGTW 050400
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
    /OCEAN REISSUED/050400Z-051800ZJAN2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050251ZJAN2019//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 13.7S 120.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY
    145 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT AGENCIES ARE
    NOW FIXING ON. A 042225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
    CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER, AND A 050051Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS TO THE
    EAST SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS STRETCHING OVER 100NM
    TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS REPORT
    WINDS FROM 25-30 KTS AND PRESSURE FALLS TO 1002MB. THE ENVIRONMENT
    IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A
    SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
    AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
    12-24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA
    . MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050300) FOR
    FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
    HIGH.//
    NNNN
     
    Flowin and Kletterer like this.
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,260
    Likes Received:
    19,148
    Location:
    Canberra
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,260
    Likes Received:
    19,148
    Location:
    Canberra
  37. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    708
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    Wow, well there ya go. GFS not so off its rocker after all.
     
    Flowin and Kletterer like this.
  38. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    4,745
    Likes Received:
    4,540
    Some decent falls in the far west Kimberley already (164mm at Cygnet Bay) as she forms up. Would rather see this stay as a broad, slow moving low & cruise down through the interior bringing a wide rainband.
     
  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    708
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    Thanks for the clarification, though I wonder, was there a term used for when GFS would still notoriously over-deepen already existing vortexes (weak low pressure centres etc), not pre-existing ones as you're referring to? It used to do that a lot as well.
     
    Flowin likes this.
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,403
    Likes Received:
    56,995
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    On the 4 day charts too.

     
    WarrandyteWX and Flowin like this.
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,403
    Likes Received:
    56,995
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  42. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    I wonder if BOM are running the Access TC model?, because Access G is still going for a Thursday landfall.
     
  43. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2020
    Messages:
    8
    Likes Received:
    15
    JTWC has issued a second area to watch:

    (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S
    134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED,
    VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP CENTRAL
    CONVECTION. A 050451Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD,
    DISORGANIZED LLC FLANKED BY FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
    WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. 92S IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY
    EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AND A POCKET OF LOWER SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
    MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE ARNHEM LAND COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
     
    Flowin and Kletterer like this.
  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574




    Nice lengthy looking moist, madden Julian oscillation forecast.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,883
    Likes Received:
    24,137
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Well, it’s got some kick in it’s first major pass this Monsoon Season!
     
    Flowin and Kletterer like this.
  46. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    91S / SH06 looking more organised.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  47. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    4,193
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    PW at various layers as at 2100 UTC 5 Jan.
     
    stormkite2000 and Claude Cat like this.
  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574
    looking pretty good atm with very cold tops. Just eyeballing thinking its roughly a 40-45kt tropical storm atm.
    sat_20200105_2310_animation.gif
     
    POW_hungry and Flowin like this.
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,403
    Likes Received:
    56,995
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS is suggesting bigger system in the NW around the middle of the month.
    and some activity starting to brew in the Coral Sea.

    [​IMG]
     
  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    237
    Likes Received:
    574


    If the current system finds the sweet spot.
     
    POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.