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Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potentialy sustained period.
     
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  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Can't find a recent pass. But many hours ago ascat bulls-eyed and sampled a decent vector of 40kt winds.
    Given the low bias of ascat @ this intensity range. 45 kts be fine with me now.







    UW - CIMSS
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    ADT-Version 9.0
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 06 JAN 2020 Time : 001000 UTC
    Lat : 16:40:48 S Lon : 121:36:36 E


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    3.0 / 994.3mb/ 45.0kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    3.0 3.3 3.7


    The raw @ 3.7 is interesting. A t4 is the threshold for a 64kt system.
     
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  4. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little surprising TBH. JTWC was not expecting it to get much above 45 kts and not even hit that for another 12 hrs (it is currently 01:00Z 06/01/2020)
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally I have little doubt this system gets to atleast minimal hurricane strength assuming a track just offshore of the Dampier Peninsula. I also believe there will be some westerly shifts closer to Port Hedland in the longer term.... see how it goes.
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Orange gradients = 850 hPa Vort..... Yellow = Upper Divergence.
     
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  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Tend to think as so long as the embedded centre can stay off terra- firma we will see some more deepening.
     
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  8. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of shear around Blake to the West and SOuth which will significantly hamper deepening. [​IMG]
     
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  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BTW BoM have now officially named it Tropical Cyclone Blake
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    850 Temp Advection Anoms 24- 48 hours. Thoughts ?
     
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  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Shear is relaxing traps on the fresh plot. So long as it don't affect the centre the towers will keep going up with anvils.








    Current sat data suggests there is steady strengthening of this system atm.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good height in those towers atm
     
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  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just saying its getting that look now of a system that may RI the coming hours.!!! The cdo is v/cold and expanding. Maybe see a pin-eye develop within the next 6-8 hours.

    sat_20200106_0220_animation.gif
     
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  14. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree.
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Good luck trying to guesstimate current intensity,can see what looks like a tiny off white developing pin eye.
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    A more resent partial pass sampled 50kts flags. The limit noaa ascat it can display.

     
  17. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Some model divergence beyond about 72 hrs.
     
  18. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    On the second one invest 92S HWRF has an aggressive outlook.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Blake is now up on the EC Cyclone tracker.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep 92S is likely to be nastier.
     
  21. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I cant see anything resembling an eye on the current IR nor Vis loops. Latest MW shows somthing which may be an eye feature but it is almost over land now!

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    0700 UTC TPW also appears to show heavier PW close to land
     
  23. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Around 0920 UTC water vapour and lightning image (source WZ)
     
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  24. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESSG +144 for 92S
     
  25. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bugger the semantics.

    Pissing down in the west Kimberley!! Cygnet Bay clocked up another lazy 180mm + until 0900 today.

    I can feel the spear grass growing from 2500km away.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    eye spied with my tiny eye @landfall.
    Seems jtwc went with the 50kts as per the ascat.
     
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  28. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I could say yes to that as an eye
     
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  29. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    If that happens one could ask how often in history do you see a two TC strength systems affect the same area within 7 days?
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might have to can our IR data collection flights we planned for Broome :(
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    CIMMS Wind Radii -----
    SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
    WTXS31 PGTW 060900
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    060600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 122.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 122.2E
     
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  33. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Broome accumulating well already - a lazy 141mm, mostly since midday.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  35. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m starting to watch these as they draw in moisture over the continent. Bodes well for the SE at the end of Jan. I see signs of the monsoon kicking off in FNQ too.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO the systems that cross the NW coast, or come down the west coast have negligible impact on the SE.
    The system that come down through the NT or the Gulf, on the other-hand seem to be better for us, at least from my memory.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less stacking in the U Divergence- L Convergence gradients this morning.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC deterministic certainly liking the 2nd cyclone too. It's track is a bit further out to sea than GFS.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just flicking between models at meteologix. Big variations at 10 days, including a cyclone in the coral sea. I’m not sure about support for the 2nd cyclone now.
     
  40. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We often /occasionally get a huge, slow moving system from the NW to Vic They meander across the continent watering everything if passes. I reckon (anecdotally) they're becoming more frequent.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Both GFS and EC are all in for the 2nd cyclone in the NW on this morning's models.
    The Coral Sea cyclone that was showing up yesterday, is not today. Suspect it may return in the near future.
     
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  42. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

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    BOM has issued Forecast Track Map for NT Low:

     
  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS see's a storm over west. Low confidence with the NT system.
     
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  44. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    So it appears he is now officially Ex TC Blake.
    According to the past track map on BoM Met-eye, he did officially cross land but only for a short while.

    [​IMG]

    The other 92S is forecast to become TC Claudia around tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    RIP Blake, you did well giving plenty of places a nice little drink. It's a shame we didn't have anyone in Broome for this one, takes the fun out of it a bit, not having someone to report in on the conditions etc or send through photo's.

    Some good rainfall across the stations as well, with more to come today. Morning radar for Hedland looks healthy.

     
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  46. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was a bit of a lame ass storm TBH. In most other basins it would never have made it above tropical storm strength. Highest recorded sustained winds I found were ta Broome port at 40kts (10 min) and that lasted a total of about 30 min only!

    For context SS cat 1 is >64 kt (3 min sustained). Still don’t understand why we have to be different to the rest of the world, makes cross basin comparisons difficult... pet gripe #394
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Number 3?

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possible. Certainly some activity in the models in GoC but at +282, I’d put about as much faith in that scenario as in donald trumps claim his skin colour is natural.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, take it with a grain of salt. The system disappears and reappears from run to run, but certainly pointing to a fertile environment for a cyclone to develop.
     
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  50. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Nothing wrong with a weak but wet storm these days my friend. It's only early days yet for this season, I'm sure we'll see a monster by the time it's done. Doesn't look like Claudia will be it though, since midday yesterday all the models are showing a rocket launcher out to sea lol.