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Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.
Potentialy sustained period.
Can't find a recent pass. But many hours ago ascat bulls-eyed and sampled a decent vector of 40kt winds.
Given the low bias of ascat @ this intensity range. 45 kts be fine with me now.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JAN 2020 Time : 001000 UTC
Lat : 16:40:48 S Lon : 121:36:36 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 994.3mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.7
The raw @ 3.7 is interesting. A t4 is the threshold for a 64kt system.
A little surprising TBH. JTWC was not expecting it to get much above 45 kts and not even hit that for another 12 hrs (it is currently 01:00Z 06/01/2020)
Personally I have little doubt this system gets to atleast minimal hurricane strength assuming a track just offshore of the Dampier Peninsula. I also believe there will be some westerly shifts closer to Port Hedland in the longer term.... see how it goes.
Orange gradients = 850 hPa Vort..... Yellow = Upper Divergence.
Tend to think as so long as the embedded centre can stay off terra- firma we will see some more deepening.
Lots of shear around Blake to the West and SOuth which will significantly hamper deepening.
BTW BoM have now officially named it Tropical Cyclone Blake
850 Temp Advection Anoms 24- 48 hours. Thoughts ?
Shear is relaxing traps on the fresh plot. So long as it don't affect the centre the towers will keep going up with anvils.
Current sat data suggests there is steady strengthening of this system atm.
Some good height in those towers atm
Just saying its getting that look now of a system that may RI the coming hours.!!! The cdo is v/cold and expanding. Maybe see a pin-eye develop within the next 6-8 hours.
Good luck trying to guesstimate current intensity,can see what looks like a tiny off white developing pin eye.
A more resent partial pass sampled 50kts flags. The limit noaa ascat it can display.
Some model divergence beyond about 72 hrs.
On the second one invest 92S HWRF has an aggressive outlook.
Blake is now up on the EC Cyclone tracker.
Yep 92S is likely to be nastier.
I cant see anything resembling an eye on the current IR nor Vis loops. Latest MW shows somthing which may be an eye feature but it is almost over land now!
0700 UTC TPW also appears to show heavier PW close to land
Around 0920 UTC water vapour and lightning image (source WZ)
ACCESSG +144 for 92S
Bugger the semantics.
Pissing down in the west Kimberley!! Cygnet Bay clocked up another lazy 180mm + until 0900 today.
I can feel the spear grass growing from 2500km away.
eye spied with my tiny eye @landfall.
Seems jtwc went with the 50kts as per the ascat.
I could say yes to that as an eye
If that happens one could ask how often in history do you see a two TC strength systems affect the same area within 7 days?
Might have to can our IR data collection flights we planned for Broome
CIMMS Wind Radii -----
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
060600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 122.2E
If as models suggest Blake can gets back over water. Chips thinks its got a chance @100kts.
Broome accumulating well already - a lazy 141mm, mostly since midday.
Subjective intensity estimates for Blake
ADT: 987 hPa 55 knots Scene: CDO Date: JAN061940
CIMSS AMSU: 991 hPa 50 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 01051240
ATMS: 980.8 hPa 62.2 knots Date: 01061709
SSMIS: 980.8 hPa 62.2 knots Date: 01061709
CIRA ATMS: 974 hPa 68 knots Date: 01060510
I’m starting to watch these as they draw in moisture over the continent. Bodes well for the SE at the end of Jan. I see signs of the monsoon kicking off in FNQ too.
IMO the systems that cross the NW coast, or come down the west coast have negligible impact on the SE.
The system that come down through the NT or the Gulf, on the other-hand seem to be better for us, at least from my memory.
Less stacking in the U Divergence- L Convergence gradients this morning.
EC deterministic certainly liking the 2nd cyclone too. It's track is a bit further out to sea than GFS.
Was just flicking between models at meteologix. Big variations at 10 days, including a cyclone in the coral sea. I’m not sure about support for the 2nd cyclone now.
We often /occasionally get a huge, slow moving system from the NW to Vic They meander across the continent watering everything if passes. I reckon (anecdotally) they're becoming more frequent.
Both GFS and EC are all in for the 2nd cyclone in the NW on this morning's models.
The Coral Sea cyclone that was showing up yesterday, is not today. Suspect it may return in the near future.
BOM has issued Forecast Track Map for NT Low:
00z GFS see's a storm over west. Low confidence with the NT system.
So it appears he is now officially Ex TC Blake.
According to the past track map on BoM Met-eye, he did officially cross land but only for a short while.
The other 92S is forecast to become TC Claudia around tomorrow.
RIP Blake, you did well giving plenty of places a nice little drink. It's a shame we didn't have anyone in Broome for this one, takes the fun out of it a bit, not having someone to report in on the conditions etc or send through photo's.
Some good rainfall across the stations as well, with more to come today. Morning radar for Hedland looks healthy.
It was a bit of a lame ass storm TBH. In most other basins it would never have made it above tropical storm strength. Highest recorded sustained winds I found were ta Broome port at 40kts (10 min) and that lasted a total of about 30 min only!
For context SS cat 1 is >64 kt (3 min sustained). Still don’t understand why we have to be different to the rest of the world, makes cross basin comparisons difficult... pet gripe #394
Possible. Certainly some activity in the models in GoC but at +282, I’d put about as much faith in that scenario as in donald trumps claim his skin colour is natural.
Yeh, take it with a grain of salt. The system disappears and reappears from run to run, but certainly pointing to a fertile environment for a cyclone to develop.
Nothing wrong with a weak but wet storm these days my friend. It's only early days yet for this season, I'm sure we'll see a monster by the time it's done. Doesn't look like Claudia will be it though, since midday yesterday all the models are showing a rocket launcher out to sea lol.