Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Myself and my WestPac chase partner James were poking around and knocked off a few shots but as @trappers has mentioned I wouldn't hold my breath for anything jaw dropping in terms of wind when I get around to throwing together a YouTube video, was very much just a rain event which I'm sure was very well received by everyone in the region.

     
  2. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lol u and James are in Aus, and I’m on a plane in KL to Japan having flown over the remnants of Blake last night!
     
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  3. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    No, but the stock standard pics of china town and paspaley plaza flooding are always worth seeing LOL that and the north of the rocks washouts anyway.
     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Hey traps 64kts cat1 ssh is 1 minute sustained.
    To be classified as a hurricane, a tropical cyclone must have one-minute maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (33 m/s; 64 kn; 119 km/h) (Category 1).

    But yeah i agree with every thing else in your post.
     
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  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    R supported


     
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  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah sorry, was going By memory, thought it was 3 min not 1. But pretty sure bom is 10 isn’t it?
     
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  7. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha yeah there is certainly no shortage of puddles to splash in when Broome gets a good drink that's for sure :emoji_cloud_rain:

    Quick video...

    Tropical Cyclone Blake

    Back up in Darwin now and looks like we have 92S to our east and looking like making its way over here in some shape or form. Models still fairly cool on it doing anything silly until west of Darwin but should bring some decent weather with it on the way past.

     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    9-km ECMWF International Surface Northern Territory MSLP 78.png 13-km ICON Australia MSLP 75.png bom--bom__day__3__9am_drw_t09_00-072-2020010800z.png bom--bom__day__3__9am_drw_t09_00-072-2020010800z(1).png

    A few models to ponder over 00z's.
     
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  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    FKAU02 ADRM 080715
    TC ADVISORY
    DTG: 20200108/0600Z
    TCAC: DARWIN
    TC: DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
    ADVISORY NR: 2020/1
    OBS PSN: 08/0600Z S1118 E13518
    CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
    MOV: W 08KT
    C: 1000HPA
    MAX WIND: 35KT
    FCST PSN +6HR: 08/1200 S1130 E13506
    FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
    FCST PSN +12HR: 08/1800 S1130 E13448
    FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
    FCST PSN +18HR: 09/0000 S1130 E13424
    FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
    FCST PSN +24HR: 09/0600 S1136 E13354
    FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
    RMK: NIL
    NXT MSG: 20200108/1330Z


    https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fk/fkau02.adrm..txt

    https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fk/
     
  10. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Love it! Just big kids still jumping in puddles really haha

    Yes fingers crossed for 92S, still early days
     
  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I may be mistaken but 92s seems to disappear on 06z GFS
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06Z GFS develops 92s as strong cyclone north of the Pilbara Coast next week. Nice loop back if it verifys.
     
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  13. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A few ensemble members going for a southerly recurve, but the mean is ots down to about 22-23S.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    It appears that the transfer of data from BoM to NOAA for forecast MJO is finally fixed. It had not been updating since about Feb/March last year.
    Anyway BoM forecast MJO now appears.
    One notable difference is much less spread compared to previous BoM ensemble MJO (I assume this improvement is due to ACCESS S replacing POAMA).

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Can someone explain what is going on with the upper level winds? This is EC 200hp for Mon 4pm:



    Why are the winds to the north of the system at this level northerly instead of southerly? How does the system hold itself together with this amount of shear? Why does this like the uppers for a hybrid system rather than tropical system, but this far north and upside down and back to front?
     
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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The R 18Z was still thinking in the ball park of 986/987 mb across the top.
    precip--mslp,__precip_drw_t06_00-051-2020010818z.png
     
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  17. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some decent falls going on down through the interior from remnants of Blake, maybe not as widespread as was hoping, but plenty of triple figures.

    Ground cooling.
     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not thinking there will be much development until the central cold cover abates.


     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Very cool vid Orebound.
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Click image to enlarge.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Squally monsoon weather.
     
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  22. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes and there appears to be some fairly big tides corresponding with the transition to NW flow as the system transits the Darwin area later tomorrow, this usually sees some coastal inundation events and at the very least some wave action at Nightcliff for the surfers :emoji_surfer:

    Thanks mate.
     
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  23. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    BoM thinks not TC until Saturday. Quite a change from yesterday’s forecast.
    And judging by that map TC Claudia, if she does form, may not ne an Australian landfall TC.
     
  24. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING, LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in Tiwi and parts of Daly and Arnhem districts.

    Issued at 5:11 pm Thursday, 9 January 2020.

    TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TOP END BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS


    Weather Situation: At 3:30 pm a tropical low was located over the northwest Arnhem District, about 60 km southwest of Maningrida and 75 km east of Gunbalanya and moving west southwest. The low will move slowly west and into the northern Daly District on Friday, then into the Timor Sea by Saturday.

    HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is expected across the northwest Arnhem and northern Daly Districts this evening and overnight tonight and will continue into Saturday.

    Rainfall totals of 75-100 mm in an hour are possible in parts of the warning area, with 100-200 mm possible in the next 24 hours.

    Latest radar and satellite imagery shows the heaviest rain occurring along across the northwest Arnhem District to the west of Warruwi. Heavy rain will begin to ease over the northwest Arnhem District during Saturday as the tropical low moves west.

    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 120 km/h may develop across parts of the warning area with thunderstorms throughout this evening and continuing during Saturday. Locally DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS with wind gusts in excess of 130 km/h may occur with thunderstorms this evening.

    Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Palmerston, Jabiru, Wurrumiyanga, Batchelor, Milikapiti, Pirlangimpi, Gunbalanya and Dundee Beach.

    Rainfall observations between 9am and 5pm Thursday include:

    - 111.0 mm at Oenpelli.

    - 100.0 mm at Jabiru.

    - 88.0 mm at Warruwi.

    - 65.0 mm at Murganella.

    The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
    * pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears
    * avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current
    * create your own sandbags if there is flooding, by using pillow cases or shopping bags filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home
    * stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways
    * ensure pets and animals are safe
    * be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
    * for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Northern Territory Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

    Looks OTS in the longer term.

     
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  25. youcantbecirrus

    youcantbecirrus First Runs

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    No/weak STR to steer along so it gets slingshot out to sea?
     
  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Worth watching the trends for any changes in track.






    download (1).png hwrf_nest_uv10m_90.png
     
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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  28. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    92S to Claudia more likely now that she has nice open warm waters to traverse
     
  29. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We'll take the recurve thanks - remnants crossing about Cape Nat would be just fine.

    Anyone notice the 270mm registered at Carneggie yesterday from dregs of Marcus? Very impressive for the Central Desert country.
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    looked ok on 36h micro with a established but still a lil ragged core.





    May look like Fay 2003-2004 tomorrow morning WA time.
     
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    FXXT01 ADRM 120300

    IDY26500



    Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC



    ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20200112 0000 UTC



    Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)



    CLAUDIA 20200112 0000 -14.0 123.8 992.2 49.6

    CLAUDIA 20200112 0600 -14.4 122.4 988.8 49.0

    CLAUDIA 20200112 1200 -14.9 121.1 990.2 48.5

    CLAUDIA 20200112 1800 -15.3 119.3 986.5 53.8

    CLAUDIA 20200113 0000 -15.6 118.0 985.1 53.1

    CLAUDIA 20200113 0600 -16.2 116.7 984.1 52.5

    CLAUDIA 20200113 1200 -16.7 115.6 986.3 48.9

    CLAUDIA 20200113 1800 -17.0 114.4 987.0 48.7

    CLAUDIA 20200114 0000 -17.4 113.4 987.6 55.1

    CLAUDIA 20200114 0600 -18.3 112.4 988.7 44.1

    CLAUDIA 20200114 1200 -19.3 111.5 990.3 42.1

    CLAUDIA 20200114 1800 -20.0 110.1 990.4 46.8

    CLAUDIA 20200115 0000 -20.5 108.9 990.6 49.2







    Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts



    For information on ACCESS_TC:
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    FKAU03 ADRM 120701
    TC ADVISORY
    DTG: 20200112/0600Z
    TCAC: DARWIN
    TC: CLAUDIA
    ADVISORY NR: 2020/5
    OBS PSN: 12/0600Z S1406 E12224
    CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL550
    MOV: WSW 14KT
    C: 983HPA
    MAX WIND: 55KT
    FCST PSN +6HR: 12/1200 S1436 E12100
    FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 55KT
    FCST PSN +12HR: 12/1800 S1506 E11930
    FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 60KT
    FCST PSN +18HR: 13/0000 S1542 E11800
    FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 60KT
    FCST PSN +24HR: 13/0600 S1612 E11630
    FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
    RMK: NIL
    NXT MSG: 20200112/1300Z
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    See new Tweets
    Tweet
    [​IMG]
    severe-weather.EU
    @severeweatherEU

    ·
    2h
    *tropics UPDATE* #Claudia is now a solid Category 3 tropical system - officially a Severe Tropical Cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots / 80 mph / 130 km/h and central pressure below 970 mbar. It continues strengthening northwest of Australia
    [​IMG]
    #CLAUDIA has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Cyclone - a Category 3 cyclone with 70 knots / 80...
    -spread the word- Tropical Cyclone #Claudia is now a solid Category 3 tropical system, officially a Severe Tropical Cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots / 80 mph / 130 km/h and central...
    severe-weather.eu
     
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    SATCOM intensity is getting there. Atm its 85kts 1/min. When the eye shows on visible and then clears out. Claudia should be a major on sshs.

    2020 SH 07 12.757 2020JAN12 181000 -15.57 -119.08 2 974 76
    2020 SH 07 12.965 2020JAN12 231000 -16.19 -117.29 2 971 81
    2020 SH 07 12.986 2020JAN12 234000 -16.23 -117.15 2 971 81
    2020 SH 07 13.007 2020JAN13 001000 -16.22 -117.30 2 970 82
    2020 SH 07 13.028 2020JAN13 004000 -16.28 -117.29 2 970 85

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/archive/2020/satconhist_202007S.txt
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's going pretty much as expected.

     
  37. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wasteful mongrel.
     
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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Poorest looking aussie cat3 i have seen in quite awhile. Cat3's usually have cleared out eyes with nice sat-pic presentation.
     
    #238 stormkite2000, Jan 14, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  39. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Now getting towards latter part of this MJO cycle in our region.
    I expect the BoM forecast update be will closer to the centre.
    [​IMG][​IMG]
     
  40. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Flowin, I've never understood how to read these properly. How do I work out the dates on the lines?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Another cyclone in the south pacific.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s been working out the other way around so far. The ACCESS forecast is likely to hold pretty well IMO.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has a hint of something at 240 in the NW. Timing would be bad for our test flights.
     
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  44. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rough interpretation, Red line is where it has been, yellow scribbles are forecast model runs, green is median of forecast. Circle in centre of plot is MJO MIA.
    The further out from the centre the stronger the signal/ influence. The octants represent different sectors on the equator .Depending what you are looking for, you focus on different octants.
     
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  45. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Legend! That's about all I needed to lock it in :thumbs: the 'Start' was what was throwing me.

    Like a kid that can only read books with pretty pictures - this is what I've been using in the meantime:

    http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

     
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  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EPS sniffing in the GOC. About 7-8 day's out.
    14-km EPS Trop Cycl Probability Australia Trop Depression [20-knots] 192.png index.png
     
    #246 stormkite2000, Jan 20, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That plot is atm verifying in the swio.
    94S INVEST 200120 1800 13.4S 65.4E SHEM 30 1003
    95S INVEST 200120 1800 19.5S 42.0E SHEM 20 1002
     
    #247 stormkite2000, Jan 20, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's theme song for the MJO this month...
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The revisit of the MJO also coincides with a significant Rossby Wave through Eastern Indian Ocean (WA).
    It's got all the hallmarks of a dodgy time in the Arafura/IO Tropics.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still liking action at 216-240 hours in the Kimberlies and perhaps even in the Coral Sea.
    Neither GFS or Canucks verifying it though, so nothing to get too excited about at this stage.
     
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