Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Yeah not sure how that will play out. EC deterministic PW forecast next 10 days 21-31 January after demise of MJO and maybe a last hurrah.

     
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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    TC Season don't usually peak until aleast march.
     
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  3. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

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    The end of this run certainly looks very captivating that moisture is quite literally sitting there to be taken by a trough or front. Although it all depends which way that low goes.
     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Landphoon.







    Decent culmination forecast
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you mentioned it the other day but looks increasingly influenced by the kelvin wave more than anything else.
    00Z run looks even more supportive. West mover.
    Hope that interior gets a good drink.
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z GFS with the moisture plume. Running down the spine of the interior.


    Some EPS members run with the spine plume GFS forecast.




    Lagged ens climate modelling going with the west shove.



    The good thing atm is 51 EPS members have a system.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should name it The Ghan.
    As damaging and sudden as it could be the interior needs it. We can only hope it spin cycles through as much landscape as possible.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z GFS gets a cool tropics to mid-lats atmospheric river going on.
     
  10. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

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    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    IDD10610
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
    Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 26 January 2020
    for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 29 January 2020.

    Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
    Nil.
    Potential Cyclones:
    A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa is located over land over the northeast Barkly District, near 17.9S 137.4E, about 180 kilometres east northeast of Brunette Downs at 2.00pm CST on 26 January. This tropical low is slowly moving towards the northeast and is expected to be near the Gulf of Carpentaria southern coast on Monday or Monday night. The tropical low may briefly move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Tuesday, before moving back over land on Wednesday.

    In the longer term, the tropical low is expected move southwest across the central or southern districts of the Northern Territory.

    Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
    Monday: Very Low.
    Tuesday: Very Low.
    Wednesday: Low.
     
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  11. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Two week ahead ensemble MJO forecasts look promising for a reasonably strong pulse to push through our region, week starting Feb 10 could be nice and wet, MJO pulse should increase chance of a windy event too.
     
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  12. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting little period coming up for the overall Eyre basin.

    Rain falling in unusual places.
     
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  13. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I would agree with an atmospheric river like moisture feed apparent in that IVT forecast map, but I am also not familiar with atmospheric rivers being described for summer tropics latitudes compared to a lot of scientific docs on winter mid latitude rain events. I find the IVT maps very interesting.
     
  14. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Windy event? No thanks.
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thingamajig. A mass of fragmented bands still clearly visible on sat.





    3/Day precip
     
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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Those watching the models likely already know EC is hinting a solid major maybe on the table for the NW.
    download (1).png download (2).png 9-km ECMWF International Surface NW Australia MSLP.gif



     
  17. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Something stirring....

    Quietly impressed with January so far, despite no official monsoon. Kunst of a September to December period but land coming alive in many places now.
     
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  18. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same, not keen on a windy one. Just want some rain. A good catchment soak for Tinaroo and Lake Morris would be great, top them up and a follow up solid soak at the end of the wet is what we need.
     
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  19. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah we've been watching mate ;)

    Euro still appears to be the most bullish with this, though others are starting to follow it westward in the most recent runs. UKMET and GFS are somewhat slower than EC and ACCESS with the westward track allowing for the next approaching UT to break down ridging late next week and thus keeping the system over land. Either way it's likely to be a big rain producer for parts of either the Kimberley or Pilbara, or both.

    EC Operational.



    EC Ensemble.



    ACCESS G.



    UKMET.



    GFS.



    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
    IDW10800

    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
    Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 30 January 2020
    for the period until midnight WST Sunday 2 February 2020.

    Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones:

    A weak tropical low may form in the monsoon trough around 10S 101E during Thursday, and drift slowly southwards during Friday and the weekend. The system has a slight chance of strengthening to tropical cyclone intensity over the weekend.


    Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
    Friday:
    Very Low
    Saturday:
    Low
    Sunday:
    Low

    Early next week a tropical low may develop in the Kimberley or over waters adjacent to the Kimberley and move westwards. The risk of this low becoming a tropical cyclone increases next week.
     
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  20. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Westerly trend has continued this afternoon with the EC deterministic in particular depicting a slightly slower upper system promoting the recurve a little later. GFS ensemble also has a few more more members further west down the Pilbara coast by next weekend.

    Interesting week ahead.



    UKMET has also fallen more in line with EC regarding timing.



    EC ensemble half and half with a recurve v OTS solution.

     
  21. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deterministic models starting to converge with some extraordinary agreement regarding the timing of a recurve onto the Pilbara coast next weekend.

    EC



    GFS



    CMC



    ICON



    Still a bit of a bifurcation in the EC ensemble.

     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's agreement, if ever I saw it (@144 hours)
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    14-km EPS Global Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom.gif CMC 24 km Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom.gif GEFS Ensembles Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom.gif
    ens eps /cmc/ gefs. All agree atm the the trough will erode the ridge and bring what- ever weather system is offshore onshore.
     
  24. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Ec00z TPW for next ten days is rather busy.
     
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  25. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some further trends towards an OTS solution this afternoon with both the EC deterministic and a large percentage of its ensemble members depicting a much weaker cyclone missing the upper system and continuing on a westward track. Of interest is the fact that the UKMET has been depicting this solution for several runs now. Alternatively the ACCESS G was up until the 00z run showing the same OTS solution but now has the system being captured and dragged onto the coast, albeit much later than others are suggesting.

    I would suggest that a couple of these models are perhaps being a little conservative with development potential, time will tell of course.

    As shown in the below ensemble, a deeper system would be more inclined to recurve and threaten the Pilbara coast next weekend though it's far from a done deal.



    UKMET



    ACCESS

     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    All the models seem to like it.
     
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  27. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Euro looking much better this latest run with a much deeper system tracking south towards the west Pilbara coast late in the weekend in line with most of the other models.

    Could be a reasonable system this one, though there could be a bit of shear closer to the coast with ridging building at the surface undercutting the upper flow.



    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
    IDW10800

    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
    Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Monday 3 February 2020
    for the period until midnight WST Thursday 6 February 2020.

    Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones:


    A tropical low has formed over the western parts of the Northern Territory and will move west over the Kimberley (but east of the region) during Tuesday and remain over land. By Wednesday the system is likely to be in the Western Region over waters west of the Kimberley in a generally favourable environment for development. There is a Moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength during Wednesday, increasing to High on Thursday as the system moves into a more favourable environment and spends more time over water.



    There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


    Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
    Tuesday:
    Very Low
    Wednesday:
    Moderate
    Thursday:
    High
     
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  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC run. A sheared storm finding a better environment @120hrs. Landfall Exmouth 958MB.
    9-km ECMWF Global Pressure Australia Simulated IR Satellite.gif
     
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  29. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS is further back towards Karratha in its latest run.



    Still a fair spread in the EC ensemble.

     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A quick uppercut from the MJO looks to flare thing up quite swiftly over the next week - as indicated by global models (will update):
    [​IMG]
     
  31. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah nice signal there, what I wouldn't give for those sort of pulses when we're targeting the Westpac storms each year!

    Anyway, 12z model cycle is in extremely tight agreement regarding the future of this upcoming WA system with all depicting a hard turn to the south around +96hrs. Along-track speeds vary slightly as is to be expected but most bring the system ashore somewhere between about Karratha and Onslow sometime over the weekend or very early next week as is the case with the UKMET.

    The system does appear to have plenty of time over open water so assuming it consolidates in a reasonable time frame after stepping off the Kimberley coast and develops at a steady rate it should be coming ashore at a decent intensity so certainly worth keeping an eye on.

    EC



    GFS



    ACCESS



    ICON



    UKMET



    On the other side of the continent it seems EC has been listening to @MegaMatch with the upper system over QLD playing ball and dragging the gulf development out into the Coral Sea, what it does from there is anyones guess. Obviously way out there in model land but an interesting development none the less.

     
    #281 Orebound, Feb 4, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I do like the STR to the South of the Coral Sea depression. A good chance at bringing it back towards the QLD.
    Light years away yet though.
     
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  33. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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  34. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    POW yeeeehaaaaa

     
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  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12Z EC shifted back in the vicinity of onslow landfall. Feeling the shortwave earlier
    on the run.

    9-km ECMWF Global Pressure Australia 850 hPa Rel Vorticity.gif
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A more stationary, meandering drift of that Coral Sea depression on the 12Z run too.
     
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  37. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensemble tending towards drifting it into the far southern Coral Sea by day 10. Obviously lots to be resolved yet with that one.

     
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  38. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    In regards to the WA thing, here's BoMs first thoughts...

    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
    Issued at 9:07 am WST on Tuesday 4 February 2020
    BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

    A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 16.2S 128.0E,
    that is 90 km west southwest of Kununurra and 640 km east northeast of Broome
    and moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

    The low is expected to track to the west and move offshore on Wednesday and
    develop into a cyclone. The cyclone is then forecast to turn towards the
    Pilbara coast on Friday and intensify further before reaching the coast on the
    weekend. At this stage a severe cyclone impact is possible for the Pilbara
    coast between Exmouth and Port Hedland on the weekend.

    Scattered heavy rainfall is expected over the Kimberley today and over the
    northwest Kimberley tomorrow.

    The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm AWST.



     
  39. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Nice Mardie crossing there OB - perfect for plenty of rain for us here in Karratha which we desperately need - currently on Millstream aquifer water which is even worse than the Harding dam. Hopefully he stays there, but I'm feeling like he'll push further south at time of crossing closer to Onslow. Time will tell but here comes the fun part!
     
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  40. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    That said, BOM have been fairly on the money for the last two seasons now.
     
  41. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it's certainly dry around the whole Pilbara @StormyLee

    As I've been posting the past couple days, I'd take this one seriously though as I'm seeing some very nice potential for significant intensification. BoM initial estimate may well turn out conservative in my opinion. These poleward tracking systems on the Pilbara can do some whacky stuff. This is a well worn track that has produced some big storms over the years as you well know.
     
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  42. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Good point OB - you spurred me into action and I started driving around site looking for sh*t to tie down the one rogue donga that hasn't been done yet.... bar really expensive lab equipment inside. LOL

    Growing up here, we always had it drilled into us by dad that the ones that go out and then in (the hookers) are the ones to watch.

    Today's wind shear map:
     
  43. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    I notice CMC is going with a similar type solution and bringing a large (hybrid???) system close to the east coast next week. Big gradient squeeze there.

     
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  44. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Black nor easter (ECL)?

    Very large system. Could be most welcome.
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z UKMET run onslow/exmouth.
    UKMET 17 km Australia & NZ MSLP.gif

    Humm
     
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  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Agree looks a subtropical cyclone on that plot.
     
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  47. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z Euro coming in hot.



    ACCESS

     
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  48. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it's an interesting feature that's for sure (though not my cuppa tea ;))

    I see EC has it too as the ensemble was suggesting, albeit a bit further offshore at this stage.

     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC wave height metres.
    Peek 2020-02-04 19-07.gif
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big 'ole warm eddy is almost cyc-supportive off the mid-Nor Coast.;)
    CMC is like a confident student prefect with that run.
     
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