Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    FXXT01 EGRR 040407

    MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND
    SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



    GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.02.2020



    NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

    FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.7S 124.3E



    VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

    -------------- -------- -------- --------

    00UTC 05.02.2020 16.7S 124.3E WEAK

    12UTC 05.02.2020 17.1S 122.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 06.02.2020 16.7S 120.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 06.02.2020 17.0S 118.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 07.02.2020 17.2S 117.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 07.02.2020 17.8S 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 08.02.2020 18.3S 116.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 08.02.2020 19.0S 116.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

    00UTC 09.02.2020 19.7S 116.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 09.02.2020 20.6S 115.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 10.02.2020 22.0S 115.1E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY



     
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  2. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
    Issued at 8:54 am WST on Wednesday 5 February 2020
    BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

    A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 16.5S 124.0E,
    that is 100 km north northeast of Derby and 245 km northeast of Broome and
    moving west at 15 kilometres per hour.

    The low is expected to track towards the west and move offshore from the
    northwest Kimberley coast today and develop into a tropical cyclone on
    Thursday. During Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn towards the Pilbara
    coast and intensify before reaching the coast on Saturday.

    Scattered heavy rainfall is likely over the northwest Kimberley today.
    Lombadina has recorded 146mm since 9am yesterday. A Flood Watch is current
    [please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details].
    Squally weather is expected over the Dampier Peninsula north of Broome today
    and early Thursday.
    Gales are forecast along the Pilbara coast later on Friday ahead of a possible
    severe cyclone impact on Saturday.



    Extended track currently over Dampier and K-Town in around +72hrs.



    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
    Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 0134 UTC 05/02/2020
    Name: Tropical Low
    Identifier: 05U
    Data At: 0000 UTC
    Latitude: 16.5S
    Longitude: 124.0E
    Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
    Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds:
    Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 05/0600: 16.6S 123.2E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 999
    +12: 05/1200: 16.5S 122.3E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 998
    +18: 05/1800: 16.5S 121.4E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 997
    +24: 06/0000: 16.6S 120.5E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 994
    +36: 06/1200: 17.0S 118.9E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 988
    +48: 07/0000: 17.8S 117.4E: 130 [240]: 060 [110]: 980
    +60: 07/1200: 18.7S 116.8E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 969
    +72: 08/0000: 19.8S 116.7E: 185 [345]: 085 [155]: 956
    +96: 09/0000: 22.0S 117.1E: 245 [455]: 050 [095]: 983
    +120: 10/0000: 24.2S 117.1E: 330 [610]: 035 [065]: 993
    REMARKS:
    The low will move over open waters later today where sea surface temperatures
    exceed 30C. Although the current surface wind circulation is weak over land,
    pressure falls of 3-4hPa and evidence of a circulation in depth would suggest
    that development into tropical cyclone will occur quickly and TC intensity is
    forecast within 24h.

    What may work against this development is moderate easterly shear combining with
    drier air entrainment and some model guidance only has modest development.
    However the shear should reduce within 48h and allow development to occur
    through to landfall which is expected within 72-96h. A category three intensity
    [85kn] system is forecast at landfall which is above most model guidance and
    there is considerable range on this estimate including variations in track
    timing.

    Steady westward movement is likely in the next 24h under the influence of a
    steering ridge. The approach of an upper trough from the west is likely to shift
    the track to the south during Friday for a Pilbara coast landfall on Saturday.
    However, some ensemble guidance shows a weaker trough capture situation causing
    the circulation to linger longer off the west Pilbara coast, in some cases for
    several days.

    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
     
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  3. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    How's that swing to Karratha :eek: on the ground reports here if it comes off folks
     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    precip--mslp,__precip_Indian_t08_00-072-2020020500z (1).png Selection_004.png

    Access-R 72hrs one frame short. The motion on the model running 66 -69-72hr is se-ish on the run.
     
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  5. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah UKMET is similar. Trends are definitely towards an earlier recurve and a more easterly landfall.

     
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  6. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC a little slower and still around the general Karratha area.

     
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  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS run. Roebourne maybe?
    precip--forecast__radar_Indian_t06_00-070-2020020500z.png precip--forecast__radar_Indian_t08_00-072-2020020500z.png

     

    Attached Files:

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  8. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Glad you're posting @stormkite2000 Bugger all interest in this event otherwise.

    Yeah looks around Roebourne, TC Christine area a few years back. That was a cracking storm.

    I tend to think the American may be leaning a bit hard to the left myself. I'm still thinking a little further west - Cape Preston type thing, time will tell obviously. All about the recurve timing ;)



    Yeah we'll be poking around the joint ourselves as we do @StormyLee
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    It will be interesting too see JT'S track and intensity. Co-amps was thinking a major over 1/min SSHWS.
     
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  11. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    According to BOM industry / commercial forecasts, cat 4 is not out of the question...

    This is from 15:00 WST today 05/02. I haven't imaged as these aren't supposed to be for the public.


    'Forecast Commentary
    A tropical low continues to move west and is currently near Cape Leveque. There is the potential for the system to intensify and reach tropical cyclone intensity by midnight, however, it is more likely during Thursday once it is well away from the west Kimberley coast. During Thursday and Friday the system is likely to be over waters north of the Pilbara moving towards the west southwest. Environmental conditions gradually improve through Thursday and particularly on Friday and Saturday, so development is likely over this period, and becomes very favourable by Friday night.

    Rapid development on Friday night into Saturday is possible as the system begins to slow down and shear decreases. Due to the potential for the system to develop significantly through this time, intensification into a category 4 system is possible on Saturday and Sunday.

    There is a high level of uncertainty in the track from Saturday. Some guidance slowly brings the system towards the central or west Pilbara coast, to the west of Port Hedland, though more likely west of Whim Creek. Under this scenario, coastal crossing time varies considerably - as early as Saturday, but potentially not until Sunday or Monday. Latest guidance has the system moving faster, so the most likely scenario is a coastal crossing on Saturday. Another scenario is that the system becomes slow moving north of the Pilbara, and gradually tracks to the west, remaining over water to the northwest of the Pilbara.
    Upper bounds represents the risk of rapid development as the system moves off the coast during the remainder of today, reaching tropical cyclone intensity this evening. The system may develop faster than the standard rate, particularly on Friday and Saturday, reaching category 4 by Friday afternoon or evening. Sunday and Monday represents the potential for the system to remain offshore and maintain category 3 or 4 intensity. The risk of a category 5 system is currently assessed to be less than 5%.'

    The location forecast for 14:00 Saturday 08/02 (+72hrs) is within 5 nautical miles of Karratha. Winds - Forecast knots 85-120, upper bounds are 110-155kn. Lets hope that doesn't happen, that's some serious damage.
     
  12. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    I certainly agree Cat 4 is possible, in fact I'm expecting as much. Needs everything to go right but environment appears very supportive for RI.
     
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  13. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting

    I notice GFS has corrected west a bit on latest run in line with what I was suggesting earlier. Icon is still to the west of Karratha.

     
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  14. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    HWRF is wandering off to the east, it's fairly eratic at the best of times so not one I take too seriously.

     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z's

    9-km ECMWF International Surface NW Australia 10-m Wind Gust.gif GFS International undefined undefined 63.png










    Co-amps upped the intensity to a cat4 sshws
     
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  16. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Rainfall forecasts for the records @ 06:00 WST 06/02.



    Windshear for the records.



     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Considering one of the top four cyclone/typhoon/hurricane chasers in the world Orebound, thinks Cape Preston that carry's alot of weight.
     
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  18. Locke

    Locke Hard Yards

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    18Z GFS run is a shocker for the Eastern Seaboard.


    A Cat 2/3 cyclone coming ashore between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie in about 8 days time and tracking down the coast exiting around Sydney.
     
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  19. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Can anyone find the Invest for the forming WA cyclone? I've been looking since yesterday and nada.
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Wickham for me atm.
     
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  22. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    BOM are maintaining their more eastern crossing track.

    Port Hedland to Mardie now on Blue Alert.



     
  23. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    It'll be those last few wobbles that do it :thumbs:
     
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  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    http://weather.gmdss.org/X.html
    METAREA X



    WTAU05 APRF 060100
    IDW23100
    40:2:2:24:17S121E400:11:00
    SECURITE

    OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
    AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
    AT 0100UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2020

    STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

    Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
    averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

    SITUATION
    At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
    latitude sixteen decimal nine south (16.9S)
    longitude one hundred and twenty decimal seven east (120.7E)
    Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
    Maximum winds : 30 knots
    Central pressure: 996 hPa
    The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

    AREA AFFECTED
    Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
    and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
    and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
    and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

    FORECAST
    Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0000 UTC 07
    February.

    From 1800 UTC 6 February winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of
    centre with very rough seas and moderate swell.

    From 0000 UTC 6 February winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE
    quadrant
    and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
    and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
    and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and low swell.

    Forecast positions
    At 1200 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.3 south 119.1 east
    Central pressure 992 hPa.
    Winds to 40 knots near centre.
    At 0000 UTC 07 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.7 south 117.8 east
    Central pressure 982 hPa.
    Winds to 55 knots near centre.

    REMARKS
    All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
    Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
    Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
    or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
    appropriate] via Perth.

    Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 06 February 2020.

    WEATHER PERTH
     
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  25. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    The timing of that slowing and the poleward turn have big repercussions regarding landfall possibilities, I still tend to think it might be on the right side of the ensemble but time will tell.

    Karratha certainly in the thick of it in my opinion but a long way to go yet.

    HWFR is all over Wickham @stormkite2000 ;) You might be onto something.

     
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  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Sub 940 on the hwrf sometimes the best model for intensity.
     
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  27. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    JTWC have numbered it 14S ... just waiting for BoM to come to party with Damien
     
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  28. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    The first white fluffy things have started cropping up in the last hour or so.

    Karratha @ 13:00 06/02/20
     
  29. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That highlevel cirrus you can see is the is the outflow, and the cloud on the left is the one just below center in this pic ;)
     
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  30. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Very cool - it all starts getting good from here

    Just started sprinkling - big drops.
     
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  31. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cyclone Damien is born
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Revised track map has a Cat 4 crossing near Karratha
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting note in the BoM Tech Guidance

    A category four intensity [90kn] cyclone is forecast at landfall which is above most model guidance though there is considerable range on this estimate including variations in track timing.

    ACCESS is cat 3 and GFS/EC cat 2, but I guess that all depends how long it spends over water. With low shear and RI expected a small stall or slow down could increase intensity significantly. Dont have access currently to ensembles but would be interesting to see the spag plot!
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  35. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

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    Meanwhile, on the other side of Oz....
    This from JTWC regarding Low (Invest 91P):

    ABPW10 PGTW 060600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 060600Z-070600ZFEB2020//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
    91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060311Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
    BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL
    CONDITIONS WITH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
    (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
    CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU
    72.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN
     
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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Interesting plot that traps. Maintains intensity as it begins moving inland.
     
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  37. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Industry BOM update issued at 15:23WST 06/02

    Forecast Commentary
    Tropical Cyclone Damien is now a category 1 system and continues to intensify whilst moving west southwest over open waters away from the Dampier Peninsula. The system was located with satelite imagery with moderate confidence. Although there is some shear near the system, the system is overcoming this shear and continuing to show signs of development.
    The system is expected to continue to develop during the remainder of today with more rapid development possible overnight and during Friday as conditions become more favourable with shear decreasing and the system slowing down before turning south. Due to the potential for the system to develop significantly through this time, intensification into a category 4 system is probable by Saturday. Steady west-southwest movement is likely to continue over the next 18-24 hours, gradually slowing down overnight. Later on Friday there is good confidence that the system will begin to track slowly south towards the central or west Pilbara coast. There remains uncertainty in the timing of the system crossing the Pilbara coast, it could be as early as Saturday morning, but potentially not until Sunday though this is becoming less likely.

    Upper bounds represent the risk of rapid development of the system, with upper bounds reaching category 4 by Friday evening and category 5 prior to landfall on Saturday. Upper bounds on Sunday represent the potential for the system to either maintain stronger winds as it moves inland, or if it is slightly slower reaching the coast and doesn't make landfall until later on Saturday or early Sunday morning.


     
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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    xx_model-en-303-0_modez_2020020600_60_1537_93.png


    Screamer.
     
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  39. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS, it's ensemble and the nested stuff is still fairly clustered around the Karratha area. HWFR has been trending slower and further west and is now coming ashore west of Karratha, watch for the trends....

     
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  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Warm sst's with cold troposphere 270k -33c. With relaxing shear makes sense how it can blowup.

    GFS Pressure Lev Australia Tropopause Theta.gif
     
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  41. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    This mob is starting to get their intensity up now.

     
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  42. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the uptick now, looks set to push some big numbers over the next 24hrs

    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    4.3 / 976.8mb/ 72.2kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    4.3 4.3 3.7

    Center Temp : -60.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

    Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

    Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

    Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

    Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

    Ocean Basin : INDIAN
    Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

    Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
    Weakening Flag : OFF
    Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

    C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
    - Average 34 knot radii : 70nmi
    - Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

    Satellite Name : HIM-8

     
    #342 Orebound, Feb 7, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
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  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ACCESS-R 18Z .
     
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  44. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest track for the archives.



    And JTWC going west of Karratha

     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Western Australia
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

    Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
    Issued at 5:44 am WST on Friday 7 February 2020

    Headline:
    Tropical Cyclone Damien is forecast to intensify and turn towards the Pilbara coast during today. Gales are expected on the Pilbara coast this afternoon or evening, ahead of a severe cyclone impact on Saturday.

    Areas Affected:
    Warning Zone
    Wallal Downs to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier and Barrow Island.

    Watch Zone
    Mardie to Onslow, and the inland central Pilbara including Tom Price, Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine.

    Cancelled Zone
    None.

    Details of Tropical Cyclone Damien at 5:00 am AWST:
    Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

    Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 117.6 degrees East, estimated to be 310 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 345 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

    Movement: southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

    Tropical Cyclone Damien has started to track to the southwest and should continue to intenisify as it turns south towards the Pibara coast today. A severe tropical cyclone impact is forecast for the Pilbara coast during Saturday.

    Hazards:
    Gales are forecast to develop along the Pilbara coast between Pardoo Roadhouse and Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier from Friday afternoon or evening. DESTRUCTIVE winds with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop overnight Friday night as the cyclone approaches the coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour are expected near the cyclone centre on Saturday. If the cyclone tracks further to the west then gales may develop Saturday morning between Mardie and Onslow. If the cyclone tracks further to the east then gales may develop Saturday morning between Pardoo Roadhouse and Wallal Downs.

    Residents between Dampier and Pardoo Roadhouse, including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland, are warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

    Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in the Pilbara and Gascoyne as the cyclone moves inland over the weekend. Refer to Flood Watch at: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

    Recommended Action:
    DFES advises of the following community alerts:

    BLUE ALERT effective as of 05:30am AWST 7th Feb 2020: People in or near Wallal Downs to Port Hedland and Mardie to Onslow but not including Onslow, (including the towns of Pannawonica, Tom Price, Paraburdoo, Nullagine and Marble Bar) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

    YELLOW ALERT effective as of 9:00am AWST 7th Feb 2020: People in or near Port Hedland to Mardie and south to Millstream (including the Town of Port Hedland, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and move to shelter.

    People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au

    Next Advice:
    The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Friday 07 February.

    Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

    A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
     
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  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Check out the upper-level divergence plot. It don't get much better for mass air movement in a intensifying tc.

    tccapture.gif
     
  47. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest. Same same. A bit more westerly track in the past hour or so perhaps, persistence will see track altered westward throughout the day in my opinion.



    Cool sky yesterday evening south of Karratha.

    [​IMG]
    Pilbara Colours - GoPro
    by OREBOUND IMAGES, on Flickr
     
  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    TXXS26 KNES 070009
    TCSSIO

    A. 14S (DAMIEN)

    B. 06/2330Z

    C. 18.0S

    D. 117.2E

    E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

    F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

    G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

    H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
    DATA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW
    LEVELS. 16/10 BANDING SUGGESTED BY THE 2221Z GMI IMAGE YIELDS A DT OF
    4.5. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT
    IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER TO 2.0
    OVER 18 HOURS AND 2.5 OVER 24 HOURS.

    I. ADDL POSITIONS

    06/2221Z 17.8S 117.5E GMI
     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  50. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    Very close to hurricane strength now.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
    Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 0127 UTC 07/02/2020
    Name: Tropical Cyclone Damien
    Identifier: 05U
    Data At: 0000 UTC
    Latitude: 17.9S
    Longitude: 117.3E
    Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
    Movement Towards: west southwest [238 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 978 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/12HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 07/0600: 18.3S 117.1E: 040 [080]: 065 [120]: 972
    +12: 07/1200: 18.9S 117.0E: 055 [100]: 075 [140]: 963
    +18: 07/1800: 19.5S 116.9E: 065 [125]: 085 [155]: 954
    +24: 08/0000: 20.2S 117.0E: 080 [145]: 090 [165]: 950
    +36: 08/1200: 21.4S 117.3E: 100 [185]: 060 [110]: 968
    +48: 09/0000: 22.5S 117.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 987
    +60: 09/1200: 23.6S 117.7E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 992
    +72: 10/0000: 24.8S 117.5E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 995
    +96: 11/0000: 28.5S 117.8E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 998
    +120: 12/0000: : : :
    REMARKS:
    TC Damien was located with moderate confidence by animated IR imagery and radar,
    with the core region just coming into radar range.

    The environment is favourable with low shear and high ocean heat content for the
    reaminder of the track as it approaches the coast. The system continued to
    develop overnight and is expected to continue that trend during today. A period
    of rapid intensification is considered likely.

    ADT CI estimates are between 3.7 and 4.5 [NESDIS/CIMSS] and the most recent
    SATCON estimate is around 70 knots 10-min mean. Subjective DVK estimates are low
    confidence due to banding features not being as clear cut in IR/VIS as they are
    in microwave passes. . Final intensity estimate is set at 60 knots 10-minute
    mean, though it could be as high as 70 knots.

    The timing of landfall varies from early Saturday to overnight into Sunday
    depending upon the steering influences of the ridge to the east and the
    weakening upper mid-latitude trough.