Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Anyone else getting TC Clare flashbacks? Damo wants us bad.
     
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  3. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha yeah it might get pretty close to Clare in terms of landfall point. HWRF thinks so.

    Brutal for Karratha on a trajectory like that.

     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Access-r 00z

    precip--mslp,__precip_Indian_t11_00-027-2020020700z.png precip--mslp,__precip_Indian_t14_00-030-2020020700z.png








     
    #355 stormkite2000, Feb 7, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  6. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z HWRF
    hwrf_nest_uv850_30.png hwrf_nest_radar_30.png





    00Z EC
    9-km ECMWF International Surface NW Australia MSLP 30.png
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a transition of Invest 91P to TC in the next 3-4 days, for the Coral Sea.
     
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  9. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah models appear to be converging nicely in that area just to the west of the peninsula.

    Taking on the structure of a system that will present with a very small RMW but I'm fairly certain it will be quite unpleasant for those that experience the maximum winds, should be humming by the time it crosses.
     
  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah its very likely too bomb out over night as the the atmosphere starts cooling.
     
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  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Have not looked east. Eyes have been peeled to the west.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Esther if it forms in Aus (Coral Sea) waters.
     
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  13. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Oh excellent :thumbs:o_O
     
  14. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it has that outflow configuration that you like to see in an intensifying system. Transverse banding features show it's venting very effectively.

    Zoomed look at Euro members.

     
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    eye clearly visible on PH radar loop now, still covered by CDO though
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    TC Francisco in the IO heading towards Madagascar.
     
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  17. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah bit of work to do to pretty itself up but it'll get there I think. Cleared out eye should be achievable.

    Blue dot my current location, not decided if it's final yet obviously.

     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet
    SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



    GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.02.2020



    TROPICAL STORM DAMIEN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8S 117.2E



    VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

    -------------- -------- -------- --------

    00UTC 07.02.2020 17.8S 117.2E MODERATE

    12UTC 07.02.2020 19.1S 117.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 08.02.2020 20.6S 117.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




    Plots to here.


    Selection_007.png
    20.6S 117.0E
     
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  19. Greysrigging

    Greysrigging One of Us

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    Similar to the one new years eve 2013...
    Let me say...one of the worst activities in the life of a construction worker is Çyclone Tie Down.... its full on just the absolute pits.... universally loathed by employees.
    We came back to work in early 2014, cleaned up and untied everything ( Cape Lambert ) then bugger me we had another Warning and had to tie everything down again.... FFS !
    WA takes things waaay more seriously than the NT..... fair dinkum, we had Cyclone warnings at Yandi 400klm from the coast and had to tie shit down.... its like saying there's a bit of a blow in Darwin, but we need to 'tie down' in Mataranka....
    Way over the top, but then again, a couple of people were killed at Whim Creek some years ago because warnings weren't taken seriously.....
     
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  20. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No MW images that I know how to access :( :(
     
  21. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Eye is starting to clear out on the sat pic
     
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  22. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM are catching on ;)

     
  23. princessweather

    princessweather First Runs

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    So anyone think it will make cat 4 on crossing? If your map is correct, its prety much ground zero for them. So as much info as you wish to add, would be awsome!

    Few names on here I have missed seeing on an old forum site, glad to know there will be credible info!

    as have a freind at ground zero.
     
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  24. StormyLee

    StormyLee One of Us

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    Oh geez here we go. I reckon it'll get pretty hairy from 10am or so till 4pm. Here's to monopoly and radars lol
     
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  25. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep

     
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  26. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is a really interesting line from the BoM technical bulliten.

    "ADT CI estimates are between 3.6 and 4.0 [NESDIS/CIMSS] with the difference explained by the MW contribution on the CIMSS estimate."

    ADT should be fine as that relies on IR, but the latest MW image I can find (including on the CIMSS website) is from 22:21 6/2/2020 or 16 hours ago!! Surely the BoM are not taking automated estimates calculated by CIMSS using 16 hour old data? Anyone got the later MW image they are referring to?
     
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  27. Wandera

    Wandera First Runs

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    Looks like a daylight crossing, luxury! Hopefully it will cross east of Wickham so as not to cause as much flood damage.
    Interesting times ahead.
    I agree with princessweather, good to see some familiar names.
    Stay safe all.
     
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  28. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some really nice intensification ongoing at the moment with Satcon estimates at 95 knots and rising. Not the prettiest storm I've ever seen however.



    Track has persisted to the SSW as we were expecting and with that storm is looking set to cross to the west of Karratha, this would possibly spare them the more intense inner eyewall but no doubt it will still be a fairly rough day there.

    Heavy rain for most of the night here in Dampier, winds still pretty tame but picking up with squalls.



    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
    Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1926 UTC 07/02/2020
    Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien
    Identifier: 05U
    Data At: 1800 UTC
    Latitude: 19.2S
    Longitude: 116.5E
    Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
    Movement Towards: south southwest [205 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 963 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 08/0000: 19.9S 116.5E: 030 [060]: 085 [155]: 950
    +12: 08/0600: 20.7S 116.6E: 045 [080]: 090 [165]: 954
    +18: 08/1200: 21.4S 116.8E: 055 [105]: 065 [120]: 968
    +24: 08/1800: 22.0S 117.1E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 982
    +36: 09/0600: 23.1S 117.5E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 990
    +48: 09/1800: 24.0S 117.4E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 991
    +60: 10/0600: 25.1S 117.2E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 994
    +72: 10/1800: 26.6S 117.4E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 996
    +96: 11/1800: 29.9S 119.6E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 997
    +120: 12/1800: : : :
    REMARKS:
    Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien [05U] was located using microwave and radar
    imagery. Dampier radar is providing good confidence in centre location.

    The eye has become ragged and almost indiscernible in EIR satellite imagery by
    1800 UTC, however tightly wrapped deep convection persists around the LLC.
    Recent microwave imagery [1709UTC] continues to show a eye with convection
    around the centre.

    Dvorak: Eye pattern with surrounding grey shade of LG yields a DT of 5.0 with an
    Eye Adj [MG/WLG] of -0.5. Trend is D+ with MET of 5.0, which is adjusted to a
    PAT of 4.5, with no clearly defined eye. FT/CI set to 4.5 based on PAT. ADT CI
    estimates are around 3.5 when no eye pattern is used [NESDIS] and 4.7 when an
    eye pattern is used [CIMSS]. Latest SATCON intensity at 1710 UTC was 97 knots
    [1-minute]. Final intensity estimate is set at 75 knots 10-minute.

    Damien should continue to develop in favourable conditions with high ocean heat
    content. Poleward outflow was evident, but equatorward outflow has reduced over
    the 6 hours. Shear was estimated at NNE 17 knots at 12 UTC. The timing of
    landfall varies from Saturday morning by 00UTC to later Saturday night depending
    upon the steering influences of the ridge to the east and the weakening upper
    mid-latitude trough. Landfall intensity is forecast at 90 knots [category 4].
    There remains a slight risk that further intensification into a category 5
    system may occur prior to landfall. This is particularly the case if it takes a
    more westward track and has a later crossing. Very heavy rainfall is forecast
    and there is potential for a very dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre
    crosses the coast.

    Once inland, Damien should weaken and is forecast to be below tropical cyclone
    intensity by Sunday evening. Gales may persist in southern quadrants into Monday
    morning.

    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
     
    #378 Orebound, Feb 8, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2020
  29. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eye is clearing out nicely now

    Conditions deteriorating very quickly

     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM outlining forecast of 91P
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damn, Damo's eye cleared out quick this morning.
    Latest BoM track staying conservative with a Cat 3 @ landfall:
     
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  32. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's just the spatial parameters of the graphic. It's likely already cat 4

    From above tech bulletin .....

    Landfall intensity is forecast at 90 knots [category 4].
    There remains a slight risk that further intensification into a category 5
    system may occur prior to landfall. This is particularly the case if it takes a
    more westward track and has a later crossing
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Makes sense. I admit I didn't read the bulletin - serves me right!
    Cheers.
     
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  34. princessweather

    princessweather First Runs

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    Eyewall is substantial, wouldnt surprise me if it went EWP and decided to reposition, make knowing landfall tricky.

    Regardless think cat 4 is looking about right, unless it tightens up.... might be a rough night for the locals. So close but still a few options to throw the curve ball.

    Hoping K-town works its magic for a suden avoidance or weakening on land fall looking less likely..
     
  35. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EWP? Do you mean EWR? no signs of that and with the speed it approaching the coast probably not enough time either.
     
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  36. _Yossarian_

    _Yossarian_ One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The long range forecasts of Damian weren't that flash, because the low first formed over land.

    Forecasts for what is spinning up new New Caledonia on the other hand, were pretty strong from 3-weeks out.
     
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  37. princessweather

    princessweather First Runs

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    Yep EWR, sorry multitasking badly, its a bit messy looking, a wobble, was why I was wondering, Have seen one do this on crossing the coast, at Hedland had it happen about 5+ years ago, but might be that sheer slightly impacting it.

    Good luck to all locals, going off grid for a few hours so hope its not to much of a wild ride!

    ="trappers, post: 4174789, member: 1503"]EWP? Do you mean EWR? no signs of that and with the speed it approaching the coast probably not enough time either.[/QUOTE]
     
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  38. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    NAh its not is it. A few more hours before landfall though - could improve before then. Was a nasty dry slot in the southern eyewall which seems to have filled in a bit now.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom TBA nailed it. Did look rough on sat-pic cinnamon roll. But micro's and radar suggested a robust storm.
    Selection_008.png 20200207.2106.f18.91pct91h91v.14S.DAMIEN.85kts.969mb.19.1S.116.6E.100pc.jpg 20200207.2213.coriolis.37pct37h37v.14S.DAMIEN.85kts.969mb.19.1S.116.6E.090pc.jpg



    Was likely slightly underestimated by jt with intensity.
     
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  40. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those composite low freq MW shots were from 21:00 / 22:00 (5/6:00 am WST) or ~4 hrs ago. It deteriorated slightly after that (The Sat image I posted is from 23:40 - 7:40am WST).

    Dont get me wrong, still a strong scary storm and will intensify before landfall, but not the prettiest.
     
  41. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is unti 8am WST (1 hr ago)
     
  42. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TBH the low frequency MW images (37 GHz one you posted) often hides anomolies as they dont prpoerly highlight the most intense convection and dont have the same spatial resolution. Here is the same MW image but in the higherfrequency (91 GHz horizontal polarisation) band from the same satelitte pass. You can clearly see the slot in the NE quadrant of the eye
    [​IMG]
     
  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    You may not agree traps. But i think the system is still intensifying now ...RI.
     
  44. princessweather

    princessweather First Runs

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    Thanks heaps, and yes looking a little more organised! Much apreceate learning more every TC!
     
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  45. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No I do agree, it is intensifying! eye structure has improved and the dry slot is gone. should see some consolidation and tightening in the next few hours. Still 7 hrs till landfall but the Burrup peninsular may start hampering development before then
     
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  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking the system is closing in on the 100kts 1/min.
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    At the point now all that really matter's is everybody who could be affected are seeking safe shelter's.

    Every wobble now really matter's who will be in the eye. And who gets the surge.The more the system drifts to the west the worse the surge could be for Karratha.

    Peek 2020-02-08 13-42.gif





    xx_sat-en-303-0_2020_02_08_02_10_1537_280.png


    .
     
  48. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also Legendre island up to 50 kt sustained
     
  49. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are you thinking @Orebound where are you gonna station yourself?
     
  50. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dampier mate. Big hit for Karratha on this trajectory though.
     
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