Event 19-26 Nov 2021 Trough & Widespread Rain/Storms

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
130,114
89,083
3,563
woonona
Gee, another drenching for inland NSW this coming weekend.

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Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,206
14,610
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I noticed EC forecasts had some notable 24hr precipitation for coast south of Sydney when I scanned forecasts this morning. Didn’t look more into it - but did note that’ll be something to keep an eye on cos EC nwp was recently upgraded with what I understand to be fairly substantial rework of its physics approximations for rain/ convection.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,790
39,092
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
EC protracting the low further Eastwards on 12Z this morning, concentrating the focus of falls on more of Eastern Vic; Gippsland and the Alpine.
GFS's trend holding steady (broadly over Vic) run to run.

But for a balanced opinion here's EC 00Z (yesterday).
Screen Shot 2021-11-17 at 7.09.06 am.png
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
130,114
89,083
3,563
woonona
AXS ..hmmm.
Flooding rains from the Sou east anywhere south of the Illawarra.
Has a stronger low and less of a inland trough influence.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,790
39,092
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
AXS ..hmmm.
Flooding rains from the Sou east anywhere south of the Illawarra.
Has a stronger low and less of a inland trough influence.
EC trending that way too, albeit further South.
All reliant on the longwave through SW WA as it shunts the trough offshore into the Tasman.

AXS in particular is strengthening that longwave.
Screen Shot 2021-11-17 at 8.11.37 am.png
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
130,114
89,083
3,563
woonona
EC trending that way too, albeit further South.
All reliant on the longwave through SW WA as it shunts the trough offshore into the Tasman.

AXS in particular is strengthening that longwave.
Screen Shot 2021-11-17 at 8.11.37 am.png
EC still has that trough laying along the GDR. Pumping moisture down from the Norwest train.
AXS opens up the bellows of a tight tasman low.
 

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
840
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Wollongong, NSW
The event has kind of started here. It must've rained last night at some point, roads are wet.

That low certainly looks like it will pack a punch and unusual to see one sitting over northern Vic like that.
 
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