1982 Revisited

Tree Breaker Bob

One of Us
Jul 19, 2006
356
306
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Dalmeny South Coast NSW
Looks like a rerun of 1982. Highs to strong and way to low in latitude causing the snow fronts to slide underneath us (nicknamed the year of the "rock hopper"). I can't remember what happened in NZ that year. Hope frogs right and snow does come because I'm booked in for August
 

cactus jack

First Runs
Apr 7, 2006
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move this to snow talk before sandy cracks her whip. But yeah it looks that way, i asked for one of the weather commentators to commenton what is required to push the highs more northerly but never got a response.
 

Bugski

A Local
Jul 15, 2003
18,937
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sandy cracks her whip.
Yeah, that Sandy is a mean tart. :p

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Croweater

First Runs
Jul 24, 2000
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Started a thread 15/6 by the same name TTB.
Interesting comments from the professionals to be seen. But be prepared to be hammered about comparing seasons. :out:
 

cactus jack

First Runs
Apr 7, 2006
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sandy, i have a question. What is the significance of the spensers creek levels? ie. why is that the benchmark for our snow levels?
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
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They are natural snow depths, taken weekly, over the last 53 years. This represents the only quantitative record of snow statistics over that period, so in that sense, it's rather valuable.
 

Alex.C

One of Us
Oct 14, 2003
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cactus jack said:
also do the above graphs represent snowmaking aswell or are they purely representative of natural snowdepth?
Purely natural depth, noone makes any snow at Spencers Creek. :p
 
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cactus jack

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Is it a good representation for both NSW and VIC resorts, or is it mainly focused on NSW being that its near charlottes pass? Is it actual snow depth on the ground right now, or is it an accumulation of how much snow has fallen?
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
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cactus jack said:
Is it a good representation for both NSW and VIC resorts, or is it mainly focused on NSW being that its near charlottes pass? Is it actual snow depth on the ground right now, or is it an accumulation of how much snow has fallen?
The depths are taken weekly, so it only indicates the depth when taken, snow how much snow has fallen.

The problem with taking depths weekly is obvious.... if it's taken on a thursday, and it rains on Sun/Mon and loses 20cm, then it snows 30cm on Tue/Wed, then settles 10cm by Thursday, you wouldn't see that ANY snow has fallen on the charts.

It's actually used as THE depth for Thredbo & PB, which I think is not tthe best...

Not a good indicator for snow in Victoria, as it's too far away, BUT it gives a reasonable indicator for the season snowfall in general for Australian seasons.
 
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IAB

A Local
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Jun 20, 2005
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When you have a look at the comparison charts for the same years Sandy has posted but for Deep Creek which is at 1620m and so more relevant for most of our resorts (the lower parts anyway), the picture looks a little different:

Deep_Creek_1974.gif


Deep_Creek_1984.gif


Deep_Creek_1991.gif
 
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adminvb

First Runs
Nov 11, 2013
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vermillion,
If you call the end of the month soon then let's hope you're right and those graphs are a good guide to what may be ahead. Just don't look at 1982's or 93's.
 

adminvb

First Runs
Nov 11, 2013
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IAB,
May look a little different but still looks bloody good compared to what we have now.
 
cactus jack said:
move this to snow talk before sandy cracks her whip. But yeah it looks that way, i asked for one of the weather commentators to commenton what is required to push the highs more northerly but never got a response.
Hey cactus jack,

I don't read every post here (I'm a moderator on two other forums, four part-time jobs, etc) but I have added my thoughts on surface high pressure numerous times but maybe you haven't seen it. Its not so much the highs pushing north that is the issue but rather the need for the sub polar jet stream to push north over south east Oz. It hasn't really done that this year. I've also mentioned a number of times about the Long Wave Trough and how a strongly amplifying LWT has been relatively absent this year over Oz but if you look on this BoM chart below, you can see the LWT really amplifying SW of WA. Hopefully this will peak near the SE of Oz soon to give us stronger outbreaks. I'd be very surprised if it didn't sometime in August.

LWT chart for Australia:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_D.pl?IDCODE=IDX0517

That node peaking towards WA is the best I've seen all winter near Oz. Its not a guarantee of snow but it really helps strengthen any surface systems. When you have a Long Wave Ridge, it tends to strenghten upper level ridging and even surface high pressure systems.

Upper level patterns are the engine room for cold outbreaks. Work on learning about them, they are a much better guide to predicting cold fronts.
 
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cactus jack

First Runs
Apr 7, 2006
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You had to spoil the optimism didnt you r&c!
laugh.gif
:p

Thanks BH that has helped alot, and i do apologise for sounding like i was having a stab at those that know more than me! I just read my post and when i wrote i didn't realise it sounded so nasty. I am sorry.

For everyones sake, fingers crossed its not another 1982. PPPPPPLLLLLLEEEEEEEAAAAAAAASSSSSSSEEEEEEE dont be another 1982!
 
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Taipan

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2001
33,213
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Well lets just wait and see.

When ever we get a slow start, we have all these long faces.

Sometimes we get the late dumps. Those with the long faces are never seen again till the next season starts again.
 

keefy

First Runs
Jan 28, 2003
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Here is a good question (or two...), we have Snow Depth stats from Snowy Hydro, do we have Rainful stats or graphs for the same periods, e.g. 82, 84 etc....

I wonder whether lack in Snowfall meant increase in Rainfall, or just 'dry' years for similar years.

The Snowy precipitation has seemed to be much lower this season (thus far), not sure of the Temps though, quotes in other/previous threads have indicated perhaps slightly above temps through June, but colder elsewhere.

Obviously the LWT and more southerly aspected surface highs have been a problem, but we have also seen (by accounts) abnormal continental LP systems forming, but with less rain (on the whole) than predicted.

It would be kinda interesting if others have aligned all these events this season to those of others? BTW not asking anyone to do this, but if there are links to the raw data or old forecasts, or, just memories it would be interesting.

Thanks for reading my bumbling's.
smile.gif


BTW I'm down next week and was sort of panicking, not a worry now though... the PUB at PB is a good place to spend very wet day(s). Hoping mid August turns up better prospects, else my Season Ticket really was a gamble
eek.gif
 
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Jun 15, 2005
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Canberra
There's no way that this is another 1982 (climatically speaking). 1982 was an el nino year with widespread drought across most of eastern Australia. yes, I know, its been dry this year, but really they aren't comparable. Winter SOI values in 1982 were in the -20 range, and got lower as the year wore on.

That said, the current low SOI and the dry conditions prevalent across much of southern Australia suggest that there's a reasonable chance at least of a poor snow year.

The charts posted above indicate that predicting snowfall based on past comparisons with years with similar snowfall up to that point is pretty meaningless.
 
cactus jack said:

Thanks BH that has helped alot, and i do apologise for sounding like i was having a stab at those that know more than me! I just read my post and when i wrote i didn't realise it sounded so nasty. I am sorry.

Yeah no worries at all, its all cool. The best of us around here (I'm not one of them) only knows a fraction of what there is to know anyway.
smile.gif


I'm still hopeful of a good August. I'm not suggesting it will be good but I am hopeful and I think that its a pretty good bet that patterns will strengthen into August.
 
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KL.

One of Us
Aug 4, 2005
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It would appear that the season will be more like 1989 rather than 1982.
Maybe, even a combination of the two. So, it would appear ...
 

BrumbyJack

First Runs
May 10, 2000
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Jindabyne :-)
The sad thing when you check 2006 against 1982, 1982 had MORE snow at the other two stations... which currently are registering 0 for this year
cry.gif
 
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skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
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Season is OVER, not that it even started.

Maybe some snow in mid August, but who cares at that stage.

:out:
 

The Loose Binding

First Runs
Jun 6, 2003
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You're an absolute pain in the butt Andee.

If things are so grim how about not troubling us with your mad ramblings until next year.

What negative nonsense.
frown.gif
 
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Brindabella

Hard Yards
Aug 31, 2000
460
0
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Canberra ACT
No like 1982. 1982 was as real classic el nino. No pecipitation at all. only rain event of any worth was in late August. Some snow from fronts in mid July and again in September. They had no snow making back then which was a pitty as they had some very cold temps and would have made lots of snow. Minus 10 in Canberra in mid July!!
 

BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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Hey AnDee that stuff falling out of the sky all day at Thredbo and Perisher its called SNOW. So when it has snowed all day how can you possibly say the season is over?
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
1,502
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The Loose Binding:
Facts: Buller has 0cm NATURAL SNOW - How does that relate ?
This week the forecast is for initial snow up high turning to HEAVY RAIN
I have a season pass not even picked up yet from Buller.
Conditions have been so crap I haven't wasted my time and $ to head up.
Looks very unlikely the season pass will get used once.
No decent snow until Mid August MAYBE, the current models show systems either peaking over WA or simply being non-existant due to High pressure sytems.

I don't care about PB or any NSW Resort, so as far as I am concerned this is season over for me and many other people too. If you wish to believe otherwise then not my problem

Finally please explain what part of what I have just said is nonsense. Negative yes, but truthful at the same time.

Oh and were you one of the people saying in June to wait for July for great conditions :p
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
1,502
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BH said:
Hey AnDee that stuff falling out of the sky all day at Thredbo and Perisher its called SNOW. So when it has snowed all day how can you possibly say the season is over?
Today and tomorrow is snow, maybe 5-10 cms if your lucky.

Wait until Friday and see how much rain we get
frown.gif


Thredbo and PB are doing OK, but for Mt Buller any more rain will cause lots of damage

Hotham/Falls are doing OK as well but relying pretty much on man-made only!

I really wish we would get a few solid dumps so I could head up, as for being negative, there is no way to talk up Buller at the moment. It's rubbish
 
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Stratus

A Local
Apr 22, 2005
8,168
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AndDee said:

This week the forecast is for initial snow up high turning to HEAVY RAIN
Better check again pal. Buller may get little or no rain this week, and they are also likley to get snow on the weekend 'or so the forecast' says
smile.gif
.
 
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skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
1,502
1,063
Buller will get showers/rain on Wed I think
NSW could get hit heavier
 

BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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Today and tomorrow is snow, maybe 5-10 cms if your lucky[QUOTE/]

Well considering I have heard reports from people up the mountain of 10-20cm this afternoon and I assume it still snowing now as the rain hasnt let off here in Berridale and the weather is heading that way. More snow tommorow and a lovely rain band just crossing the coast now heading towards the mountains 30cm-40cm by Tuesday afternoon wont be out of the question.

PS that HEAVY RAIN you are talking about is no longer on most charts and I think you will find the BOM'S forecast will follow the same line in tommorows run.
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
1,502
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10-20cms today ? 30-40cms by tomorrow afternoon ??

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BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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Laugh it up. I love it when a mexican tells me about the weather in NSW good one champ!!!

ps-real smart buying a season ticket before even getting to the snow. Who does that :goose:
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,433
1,502
1,063
As your clearly baiting now and this topic might as well be closed let me finish with the following.

Lets see what the snow report says tomororw, funnily enough at the moment the weather station is showing about 3.8mm all day. I guess that could be 20cm.... More like 3-5cms.

Several people buy a season ticket well before the snow season. If you go 9 times you break even, any more than than you save money over single day tickets. A season like this, well you lose money based on the 1 year purchase. However, I saved hundreds last year and about 500 the year before, so I have broke even. For someone that would go to the snow for about 20-30 days a season I guess I should have been prepared to pay around $1800 for tickets instead of my $900? So yeh real smart I guess.. :rolleyes:

Finally some images, hopefully they make sense (will not update)

Example_1.jpg
Example_6.sized.jpg
Example_5.jpg
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Benn0

Old n' Crusty
Sep 7, 2005
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Interesting thread (well it was until AndDee went fishing and got some bites), I think it's the first weather thread I've read that I could actually understand what everyone was saying. :p
 
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