Predictions 19th-21st July Glancing Blow

POW Hungry

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WA peaker (16th/17th) is a big system for the Sou-West, but EC and GFS moderately aligned to suggest we'll see the offcuts and remnants, aka Clipper through the SE on the 19th/20th.
Ridge influence sees to a mere top up at the moment.

EC 12z
upload_2020-7-12_18-6-47.png


GFS
gfs_z500a_aus_31.png


GFS:
upload_2020-7-12_18-15-12.png


At this stage there doesn't appear much in it and if it happened as it fell today we'd likely see 5, maybe 10 cents on the table IMO.
 

Jellybeans

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-32 temps at 500mb, quite the bullseye on EC.
9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 500 hPa Temperature.gif


Small little front to clear the way on the 19th.
Main ULL coming up towards the Alps on the 20th and 21st.
Clearing on the 22nd.

EPS is definitely coming around to it as well.
Unknown-2.png
 
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stormkite2000

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GFS 18z was holding serve with its solution.

gfs-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-5192400.png

gfs-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-5257200.png

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................



That clears then the next system 25th. Its thinking another wandering cutoff low.

gfs-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-5678400.png



gfs-deterministic-aus-theta_2pvu-1594663200-1595721600-1595872800-10.gif


18z crazy hr run.
 

POW Hungry

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Looking a little more ridgey on this arvo's global model runs. Still there, but looking quicker.
But such is the choppy-nature of run to run analysis @ 130hrs.

Still 6 days out.
 

stormkite2000

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00Z EC @19/20 Still hanging in there.
ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-5160000.png

.........................................................................................................................................................







RE 18z GFS post above

Moisture @25th looking ok on EC ens/c.
 
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stormkite2000

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Above post is in regards to GFS18z shifting back it's 25th solution to the 20th.

zXRcblX.gif







I think everyone should get the drift now with the current uncertainty with the global models run to run atm.




 
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POW Hungry

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Hopefully that pressure drops - centre of the low is still above 1000mb and it looks like it doesn't pass directly over the alps.
Without taking much away from your point, last weekend's MSLP of circa-1016hPa delivered +70mm to South Coast in 24 hours is where it's all relative to synoptic set-up. As unique as it was there's plenty of wriggle room in this one, yet.

1012hPa 'aint a bad base to build from, for now.

IDG00074.gif
 

jonathanc

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Without taking much away from your point, last weekend's MSLP of circa-1016hPa delivered +70mm to South Coast in 24 hours is where it's all relative to synoptic set-up. As unique as it was there's plenty of wriggle room in this one, yet.

1012hPa 'aint a bad base to build from, for now.

IDG00074.gif
Agreed, but it wasn't exactly dry powder!
 

Stephen Allen

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EC and Ms. Bunn have slightly upgraded this system on the present run. However BOM are quite downbeat at present about it bringing anything above average in snow falls.
There is still no sign of a mega snow fall coming to VIC. like they have had in NSW this week .
NEXT 7 DAYS
Mt Buller: 15cm
Mt Hotham: 16cm
Falls Creek: 12cm
Mt Baw Baw: 15cm
Perisher: 14cm
Thredbo: 12cm
Charlotte Pass: 21cm
Selwyn: 10cm
Lake Mountain: 13cm
Mt Stirling: 18cm
Ben Lomond: 6cm
Mt Mawson: 6cm
But a substantial downgrade on Monday run.
 

stormkite2000

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Canuck on its run, there looked a ally for some flakes on its back as it pass's. Obviously a tight one atm. That will likely keep nudging heights about on the models for better or worse. There's bugger all interest in this one on the tread atm. So last post on it for me on it.
gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-5181600.png upload_2020-7-16_17-52-3.png upload_2020-7-16_17-53-32.png upload_2020-7-16_17-59-40.png

upload_2020-7-16_17-53-32.png



upload_2020-7-16_17-59-40.png


gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-5181600.png



upload_2020-7-16_17-52-3.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Canuck on its run, there looked a ally for some flakes on its back as it pass's. Obviously a tight one atm. That will likely keep nudging heights about on the models for better or worse. There's bugger all interest in this one on the tread atm. So last post on it for me on it.
gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-5181600.png upload_2020-7-16_17-52-3.png upload_2020-7-16_17-53-32.png upload_2020-7-16_17-59-40.png

upload_2020-7-16_17-53-32.png



upload_2020-7-16_17-59-40.png


gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-5181600.png



upload_2020-7-16_17-52-3.png
Thanks for your input @stormkite2000
It’s highly valued.

EC staying steady with this one IMO. I think it’s got a bit more precip than EC gives it credit for.
E72D9A84-EF1C-4E99-92CF-F2C8DE3E01DF.png
 
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