Predictions 19th-21st July Glancing Blow

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 12, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    WA peaker (16th/17th) is a big system for the Sou-West, but EC and GFS moderately aligned to suggest we'll see the offcuts and remnants, aka Clipper through the SE on the 19th/20th.
    Ridge influence sees to a mere top up at the moment.

    EC 12z


    GFS
    [​IMG]

    GFS:


    At this stage there doesn't appear much in it and if it happened as it fell today we'd likely see 5, maybe 10 cents on the table IMO.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Glancing blow @ 700mb
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Both GFS and EC looking much better this morning. Rolling back on that high.
    EC 12z
     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That 12z run was a bullseye.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Right on the kisser.
     
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  6. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long way out but YR (EC) looks nice for next Monday.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    -32 temps at 500mb, quite the bullseye on EC.


    Small little front to clear the way on the 19th.
    Main ULL coming up towards the Alps on the 20th and 21st.
    Clearing on the 22nd.

    EPS is definitely coming around to it as well.
     
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  8. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks cold
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, resort temps not expected to be an issue in the current set-up.
    There's cold air reinforcement, but was looking a little more dicey on the Western Aus system trans-continental set-up in previous runs though.
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The pretty "30-50cm type" textbook cold system for the Alps.
     
  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC showing some more robustness to the depth of the frontal pattern.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Trough over the spot.








    Juicy looking polar front imo.
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    If Mt. Stirling does get 30 cm It will be very hard to take seeing TBJ coated with snow . This fascination with snow forecasts and love of snow and XC skiing is becoming a rare form of torture . SDS does not describe it well enough.
     
  15. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Comparing this to the 12z run from yesterday and the high is placed slightly better so there's more SW rather than the almost straight S on the last run. I like the trend.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to build positively run to run now.
    Good hook, ridge trending Westwards. Still got a SE slip to it but starting to come around.

    EC with that classic trailing High taking the back seat.


    GFS
     
    #16 POW_hungry, Jul 14, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2020
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 18z was holding serve with its solution.



    ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................



    That clears then the next system 25th. Its thinking another wandering cutoff low.






    18z crazy hr run.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking a little more ridgey on this arvo's global model runs. Still there, but looking quicker.
    But such is the choppy-nature of run to run analysis @ 130hrs.

    Still 6 days out.
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC @19/20 Still hanging in there.

    .........................................................................................................................................................








    RE 18z GFS post above

    Moisture @25th looking ok on EC ens/c.
     
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  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    20cm and lots of wind IMO
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    If the GFS solution atm was to verify. Could be a few cents more.





     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Short, sharp hit on GFS's 06z.
    Plenty cold. Shows great promise for Tassie too.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s better! EC’s 12z this morning:
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice little handy system on EC, watching it's full progression:


    Looking at 10-20cm of snow on that run IMO.
     
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  26. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like a more traditional front 15-20cm IMO
    When those winds pick up a fair few branches will come down. Plenty snapped sitting precariously on the way up to Perisher.
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I agree.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Concur
     
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  29. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    We will see how it unfolds I guess. That last system was being touted about as yuck and type of system from the get-go that don't deliver on cm's. And look what happened in nsw.
     
    #30 stormkite2000, Jul 15, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2020
  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Above post is in regards to GFS18z shifting back it's 25th solution to the 20th.

    [​IMG]







    I think everyone should get the drift now with the current uncertainty with the global models run to run atm.




     
    #31 stormkite2000, Jul 15, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2020
  32. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    Is that what you’d call an upper cut, jab, jab across next week?
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    What i call it there's much uncertainty with the upper jet placement re: cutting off again.
     
  34. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hopefully that pressure drops - centre of the low is still above 1000mb and it looks like it doesn't pass directly over the alps.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without taking much away from your point, last weekend's MSLP of circa-1016hPa delivered +70mm to South Coast in 24 hours is where it's all relative to synoptic set-up. As unique as it was there's plenty of wriggle room in this one, yet.

    1012hPa 'aint a bad base to build from, for now.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Agreed, but it wasn't exactly dry powder!
     
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  37. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    I’ll gladly take the MSLP chart. But get the L centred a touch further N over the strait pls
     
  38. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    But a substantial downgrade on Monday run.
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 00Z 700 hPa temps ( 3 Hourly plots )
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    This needs to change . Wickedly invasive uppers.
     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    This what you want to see, but its outta the thread title range.





     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ICON and Canada doesn't mind this system, both have reasonable trend but at odds with GFS & EC at the moment.
    Still some swing in it IMO.
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty lacklustre on EC 12z:


    Heading towards a 5-10cm sort of range IMO.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A glancing blow.
     
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  45. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Pressures arent very low so Frog and I are not impressed.
    Aptly named Glancing Blow .
     
  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    5-10 was about were the 12z ec snow forecast was @. But more for tassie.
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Prob's come down to what the humidity setup in the uppers is on the day. And of course low level in convergence the bass.







     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z Icon thinking plot1,and the Bom's atm plot2.


     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck on its run, there looked a ally for some flakes on its back as it pass's. Obviously a tight one atm. That will likely keep nudging heights about on the models for better or worse. There's bugger all interest in this one on the tread atm. So last post on it for me on it.
    gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-5181600.png upload_2020-7-16_17-52-3.png upload_2020-7-16_17-53-32.png upload_2020-7-16_17-59-40.png









     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for your input @stormkite2000
    It’s highly valued.

    EC staying steady with this one IMO. I think it’s got a bit more precip than EC gives it credit for.
     
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