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Predictions 19th-21st July Glancing Blow

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 12, 2020.

  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Keep pumping the info in stormk it’s much appreciated!
    This system only needs a small upgrade and it could be quite cold and fruitful for probably mainly southern vic imo
     
  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tassey cops the full brunt of this one again imo
    Those highs are just flattening the systems enough to take the edge off imo
     
  3. big_onion

    big_onion Hard Yards

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    Thanks stormkite (and all the regulars too), I really appreciate the model runs and insight you post on here! Just because there isn't a lot of posts on the thread doesn't mean there isn't there isn't interest for people like me that watch from the sidelines!

    Definately looks like system that favours the southern resorts open for regional vic's and I'm hopeful for 10-15cm for Buller/Baw Baw but it may need a little upgrade to see that.
     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    And GFS isn't entirely uninterested either.
     
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  5. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC aligned with GFS. 10cm of white stuff for Vic IMO.
     
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  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Plenty of sideline interest here. Cant really post much as you blokes cover off on most things so well it doesnt leave much unsaid. We are just about to enter the 4 day period so now interest will increase even more although with things are as they are in Melbourne and this looking predominantly a Vic event ...................
    I think a lot are still in awe of the last little accumulation ;) and are probably out there enjoying it.
     
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  7. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  8. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Outside of dates and only an obs ,damn chilly this morning at the high perch ( -2.5c) no wind and clear skies.
    I am not seeing a lot of the white stuff in this upcoming little clipper and less for NSW ,5 -10 if we are lucky.
     
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  9. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come on you lot. Ignore those covid threads. Chance of a few flakes still from the "glancing blow".


     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup, as expected EC upgrades moisture. Here 5-10cm from Sunday Night IMO.
    Down as low as 800m for Southern Vic.
    Baw Baw should do orright Monday out of the SW.
     
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Would it be silly to still feel like there might be a bit more of an upgrade yet before this one comes through??
    Just feels like day by day it’s slowly getting colder and may produce more snow than expected. IMO
    Some good cold air building nicely to the south that’s going to push up west of tassey imo
     
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  12. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ll take 10 cents onto what’s there now outside of the resort.
     
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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Needs wind
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Meh factor from above.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Extraordinary sub-tropical Jet incursion into the tropics there.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Would be nice to see the polar behaving the same in coming weeks.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC vertical moisture profile looks lacklustre on this one.
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    BOM update for Thredbo
    Sunday 19 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h increasing to 50 to 70 km/h in the afternoon, then tending westerly in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Monday 20 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the morning then turning southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.
     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Above
    Pretty much forecasting what Global models have been indicating mostly within the runs. There has always been a small window for flakes.







     
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  20. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little wind and some high cloud wandering through Crackenback.
     
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  21. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Only a little high cloud ,mostly sunny and no wind at all on the western side. Quite warm as well at 11c.
     
  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a slight downgrade (for NSW) by the BOM for Sunday and a slight upgrade for Monday.
     
  23. Val Desire

    Val Desire Addicted

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    Bluebird morning. Wind picked up p.m. and light flattened Perisher today.
     

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  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC thinks it will get a bit gusty when it starts moving over.
     
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  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Severe weather warnings only , no graziers warning so its not a serious thing yet
     
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  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  27. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Snow to 800m in gippsland tonight, mt tassey might be a sneaky chance for a flurry or two imo
     
  29. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Any chance of the westerly component of the wind ruining the party for Buller?
     
  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Baw Baw might get some well needed snow. Last year in August 2019 the whole BB Plateau had at least a metre of snow on it. Mt.St. Phillack's rock cairn was buried!!