Predictions 19th-24th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 14, 2018.

  1. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Looks like my Friday night travel up Alpine Way will be ok. Might just take the longer bar chainey and heavy winch cable just to be on the safe side. Looking forward to my first 2 week stint up the hill for the year.
    Prediction - fresh 10 cm for me in the morning and I am going to damn well enjoy the next 2 weeks.
     
  2. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'd just gone home.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC buller fall rates for Friday AM
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raise you for sustained.

     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane sticking to 20-30.
    [​IMG]

    The next cold front arrives late Thursday/early Friday. This front is strong, so expect larger snow totals than we saw on Tuesday.

    It doesn't begin in Victoria until late afternoon or in the evening, and around midnight in NSW. We're dry and quite sunny ahead of that. The snow persists on Friday, easing in the evening. In total, expect 20 to 30 cm of snow at the major resorts. Snow falls down to 800 metres on Friday.
     
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  6. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Wasn't Jane saying 25-40 only just yesterday or the day before?
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That included last night though. It was always ~20-30 for Thursday night/Friday.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:28 am Wednesday, 18 July 2018.

    Weather Situation: North to northwesterly winds are expected to increase ahead of a cold front which will cross the State on Thursday.

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop over western parts of the warning area tonight, then extend eastwards early Thursday.

    Over Alpine areas, peak gusts of 110 km/h are possible.

    Winds are expected to ease over most of the warning area by Thursday afternoon, although Alpine areas not expected to ease until late Thursday evening.

    Locations which may be affected include Ararat, Kyneton, Ballarat, Daylesford, Bacchus Marsh and Falls Creek.
     
  9. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Your point being...?
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I thought that she had downgraded her forecast for the end of the week
     
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  11. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of Snowy Mountains Forecast District.

    Issued at 12:08 pm Wednesday, 18 July 2018.

    BLUSTERING WESTERLY WINDS FOR ELEVATED PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW SOUTH WALES.

    Weather Situation: West to northwesterly winds are expected to increase ahead of a cold front which will cross the state between Thursday and Friday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 125 km/h are possible for elevated areas above 1900 metres from early Thursday morning.

    Winds are expected to ease with the passage of the front early on Friday morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

     
  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM 4 Dayer



    Yeah Nah (Thredbo)



    BoM (Thredbo)



    BoM (Perisher)



    Yep, @Kletterer has planned this nicely. Upgrades all round. More snow chain fitting amusement coming up ;)
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isn’t that this morning’s Yr.no?
     
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  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is current as of 4:30pm today off their website. Yes I know about the app.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So like I said, it’s this morning’s run.
     
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  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off the phone app...

     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s the same, this morning’s run. Update coming at 5pm.
     
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  18. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    It says when it was updated in the top right corner. @DidSurfNowSki
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Somewhere between 5 and 6pm usually. Occasionally a little later.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correction, 6pm
     
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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah app says next update at 6pm. Misread.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It can quite often update before that. I've found that different locations update at different times though, it can be 30m different!
     
  23. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Predicting a thing of beauty that will continue to grow on the satellite images from the South west until it delivers much goodness to the alpine areas in time for this weekend. :cheers:
     
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  24. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forecast or hopecast?
     
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  25. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nomageddon
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slight upgrade for the Bo on Yr No
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As @Donzah pointed at last night the NW loves this system to elbow around Hotham/Falls. Vic will be the real winners here I'd expect, with Buller sucking up anything out of the SW Friday mid-morning.
    Falls rates through the roof for Vic on EC tonight (00z run)
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    See that light pivot in the front around Baw Baw on BoM's 4dayer (Thurs 10pm). It's very evident on EC's Vort plots.
    That'll slow things up just a frac for VIC IMO.
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was just coming here to post this.
    Purely from AXS R.
    Mind you... The pre-Cip numbers are pretty nice for NSW.
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow factor for Tassie-
     
  31. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Prediction.....
     
  32. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    What is Baw Baw? Some type of Pineapple?
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed. LM(when it gets cold enough)/BB/Buller all looking good too.
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.no (EC) numbers for Falls jacked again this morning. Based on these they stand to be the clear winner from this system.*

    *everyone’s gonna be a winner on Friday morning though.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note that EC 12Zhas the ridge pushing things South rather than East, meaning almost no SW’ly on the back now. All west will bring home the goods for the northern resorts IMO.
     
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  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reflected in comparatively underwhelming Buller numbers on yr.no.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, and that it probably wouldn’t pick up on the SW favoured numbers anyway. I think it woulda been a ghost fall scenario if it was out of the SW.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's automated update for Falls this morning, these are OCF numbers so an ensemble of all major forecast model data if I'm not mistake.
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And her updated forecast summary.[​IMG]

    Updated: Thursday 19th July 2018, 8:15am.

    Significant snow late Thursday and Friday. A dry weekend. Snow again on Monday.

    The next cold front arrives late Thursday/early Friday, followed by a trough on Friday, all driven by a deep low to our south. This system is strong, bringing 20 to 30 cm of snow at the major resorts.

    The precipitation begins in Victoria in the late afternoon, and in NSW at night (Thursday). Rain quickly changing to snow, and rapidly lowering. It should fall as low as 700 metres for a time on Friday.

    The weekend is generally dry as the next high takes over. Saturday has areas of cloud, and there is the slight chance of light snow (but I wouldn't expect anything measurable). Then Sunday is the bright and sunny one. Light winds at first, but they will increase again in the afternoon.

    The next cold front passes through on Monday. Dry and windy, ahead of snow developing later. It should bring 3 to 8 cm of snow.

    There may be a weak front mid-week, ahead of a stronger one at the end of the week - all bringing more snow.
     
  40. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Gurus, I would like please some hour-specific predictions to help me plan my day and I know you are up to this task:

    The situation: I’m in Thredbo with the kids. Our five of 7 day passes mean we gotta skip a day and today is that day.

    Idea: A day in a ski lodge is actually pretty boring so I thought I’d drive round to Guthega this arvo and buy cheapish $48 2pm tix for the kids and we’d all do Guth for a coupla hours. (Not skitubin it cos I got Nat Parks pass and tube is exie)

    But: I wanna make sure the impending blizzard is not due till after about 5pm, as in the actual snowfall. Cos I’m not in a snowchain fittin mood

    Thoughts?
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no saying you’re good till ~7pm.
     
  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guthega road with a foot of snow on it is a hoot!

     
  43. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Thanks bro that’s about what I hoped for
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    This would be correct. Get out of there quickly though. May be lifts on windhold at Perisher though.
     
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  45. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Ha!

    Side note: Buller probably got 20mm of westerly rain that day!
     
  46. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once we hiked up the side of Twynam and dug in our camp it rained for the rest of the week!
     
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  47. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Ok you win this round...
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks like an upgrade. see above 4 day for Friday.
     
    #150 7wombathead, Jul 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2018