Predictions 19th-24th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 14, 2018.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    This has NSW written all over it
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Chart for Monday? That’s another thread but that inland trough can GF I reckon. Looks more trouble than it’s worth.
     
  3. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    1,703
    Likes Received:
    2,665
    Gotta Puke. I planned to move my van from Island Bend Friday after lunch to a ski buddy's property in Cooma for a couple of days, but I have form on moving days - its gunna puke!
     
    SMSkier and FourSquare04 like this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    If you're moving it due to inbound weather, you're gonna be too late.;)
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    NSW and Falls/Hotham has it.....
     
  6. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    1,703
    Likes Received:
    2,665
    No, I just like to move around - Jindy, Nat Park, Dalgety, Berridale etc as I'm here for 12 weeks, but there has been an uncanny coincidence between moving from Island Bend and dumpage days over the past few years. Creepy or lucky??? It bothers me not if I have to drive through a half metre of fresh to get to the ploughed roads for first tracks. What's a day or two extra in camp between forum friends?
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    Looking better on this arvos AXSR runs
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    The GFS Fine print- Vertical Velocity, Convergence/ Divergence ( at various levels) plots i am veiwing have taken a bit of a nose dive today. Briefer period of snowfall after 6 pm tonight is my guess.
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    Better start snowing soon before the F word appears
     
  10. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2014
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    106
    BOM has upgraded Thredders by 11 percent 25-45 cm Friday 20.
     
  11. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2014
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    106
    Stay where you are, Sat morn will be smokin' powder.
     
    Jacko4650 likes this.
  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,953
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    It's going to be line ball as usual, IMO.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    Look at the EC 00Z Friday plot above folks . Its not pretty. Bring on the next system IMO.
     
  14. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    189
    Likes Received:
    101
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Wet and cold in Adelaide. From afar it has the goods written all over it.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    5-10 cents for Vic. 13 cents total for Thredbo IMO.
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    32 cm for Perisher this evening until saturday arvo
    Maybe 34cm
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    *for you
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    Savage winds cutting through the DGZ at 700hPa - 500Hpa may stifle the desired affect.
     
    nfip likes this.
  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    2,134
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    I am somewhere in between Kletterer and Donzah simply because I can actually see whats inbound but not due here for another couple of hours. Its too dark to take a photo but slower moving , more substance than Tuesday , in short a better looking build up as far as the sky is concerned but, its a terrible but as well...……….its too damn warm right now. Its still a springy 7C so we might get some of the dreaded r word first up so...…….
    15 -25 at best is my thinking right now.
     
    FourSquare04 and nfip like this.
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    I observe we may have briefly crossed paths in the Guthega carpark on your way up-hill.
    Self was off digging pits AST1 , you and mates where headed up the valley....
     
    FourSquare04 and CarveMan like this.
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    or shape and dendritic growth?
    stryrofoam death balls anyone?
    but gee's she's moist..and thickness looks great.
    @POW_hungry wanna post some EC skew T ? My pro accue account log on is annoying .
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    He wouldn't have seen you...as blind as a bat LOL
    See this is why I wear distinctive jackets
     
    nfip likes this.
  23. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2014
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    106
    Gee, were gettin' our cents worth. 13 compared to BOMs 45, phew.
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    aaaahh th mustard gang.
    one of my besty gurls had an old carolla we described in a different manner ;)LOL
     
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    can get skew T click on tropical tb's ?
    edit, nah soz it BSCH
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    yeah you can get skew T from GFS on TB's
     
    nfip likes this.
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    Mixing ratios are being inhibited by the brisk winds aloft 700- 500hPa and the streamlines are lacking vorticity/ curvature. Confluence is lacking despite the pressure gradients. Equalbrium in the Entropic world sometimes puts its front foot forward and restricts the instability in parcel movement we like to see . Its simply a major downgrade . plenty more opportunities for good falls to come this season.IMO
     
    nfip likes this.
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    I would call a major downgrade. :( Really Really average..........

    :p
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    The wind vectors simply show a lack of contraction over the Alps (more air entering than leaving on the horizontal) = Convergence ingredient - ERV has skipped further North if you look on BSCH plots.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I'll play.
    10pm Tonight for perisher

    10am tomorrow

    is it still playing up?
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    Not Buller coordinates ----- ?
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The log-in sitch on Accu weather sucks a big ole bag of dicks!
    Yep will do when I get home. GFS won't be too far off the pace at T-12 hours though.

    Your styro death balls don't really kick in until the back end of the system, in the showers zone. Friday arvo IMO.
    150mb DGZ is Gnarls Barkley (740-600mb).

    Below is for Falls Creek or there abouts below:
     
    Donzah and Jellybeans like this.
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Nah, @Jellybeans1000 threw up Perisher's plots
     
    Jellybeans and Kletterer like this.
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    The Z man wants to leave Vicco behind for the new world.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Nope. Perisher. Didn't know you were a fan :p Here they are if they of interest.
    4am tommorow

    4pm
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,477
    Likes Received:
    16,648
    Location:
    Canberra
    A bit more psuedoadiabat hugging on the lower plot would be better but it is what it is . Wind vectors on BSCH are somewhat contrary though.
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Lel. I wish. Could be a serious plan once I get out of the current situation.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    Looks pretty tidy to me.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    100mb is good times. 150mb is road coverage in a matter of minutes.
     
    FourSquare04 and Jellybeans like this.
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's still got 15-20cm in the majors, with 25-30cm in Hotham/Falls respectively IMO.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,524
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh, I think this pretty much right. I'm not convinced Hotham & Falls will do that much better than anyone else, but it's looking like 15-25cm for all the majors to me.
     
    SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,687
    Likes Received:
    26,127
    Location:
    woonona
    34cm for Mt P.
    IMO
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,918
    Likes Received:
    21,655
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Falls loves to report on a sprinkle more ;)
     
    mick chopps, Claude Cat and neck_deep like this.
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah I thought a bit more for Perisher and Thredbo IMO too. 25-30cm for Big 4 and 15-25cm for Buller my two cents.
     
  46. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,132
    Likes Received:
    23,805
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    Central Tablelands for Friday: Partly cloudy. High chance of rain in the southwest, slight chance in the northeast. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible small hail in the west in the afternoon. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 13.
     
  47. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    265
    Likes Received:
    304
    Take a look at the trajectory of the centre of the low on the animated sat pic. It’s pushing NE pretty strongly. I reckon this system will surprise a bit on the upside, particularly in NSW...
     
  48. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2018
    Messages:
    60
    Likes Received:
    28
    actuals out doing the predictions?.......now that would be a rarity !
     
  49. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Always NSW , its higher.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,342
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    No he's talking about favourable wind directions. Height doesn't mean everything.