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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 14, 2018.
This has NSW written all over it
Chart for Monday? That’s another thread but that inland trough can GF I reckon. Looks more trouble than it’s worth.
Gotta Puke. I planned to move my van from Island Bend Friday after lunch to a ski buddy's property in Cooma for a couple of days, but I have form on moving days - its gunna puke!
If you're moving it due to inbound weather, you're gonna be too late.
NSW and Falls/Hotham has it.....
No, I just like to move around - Jindy, Nat Park, Dalgety, Berridale etc as I'm here for 12 weeks, but there has been an uncanny coincidence between moving from Island Bend and dumpage days over the past few years. Creepy or lucky??? It bothers me not if I have to drive through a half metre of fresh to get to the ploughed roads for first tracks. What's a day or two extra in camp between forum friends?
Looking better on this arvos AXSR runs
The GFS Fine print- Vertical Velocity, Convergence/ Divergence ( at various levels) plots i am veiwing have taken a bit of a nose dive today. Briefer period of snowfall after 6 pm tonight is my guess.
Better start snowing soon before the F word appears
BOM has upgraded Thredders by 11 percent 25-45 cm Friday 20.
Stay where you are, Sat morn will be smokin' powder.
It's going to be line ball as usual, IMO.
Look at the EC 00Z Friday plot above folks . Its not pretty. Bring on the next system IMO.
Wet and cold in Adelaide. From afar it has the goods written all over it.
5-10 cents for Vic. 13 cents total for Thredbo IMO.
32 cm for Perisher this evening until saturday arvo
Savage winds cutting through the DGZ at 700hPa - 500Hpa may stifle the desired affect.
I am somewhere in between Kletterer and Donzah simply because I can actually see whats inbound but not due here for another couple of hours. Its too dark to take a photo but slower moving , more substance than Tuesday , in short a better looking build up as far as the sky is concerned but, its a terrible but as well...……….its too damn warm right now. Its still a springy 7C so we might get some of the dreaded r word first up so...…….
15 -25 at best is my thinking right now.
I observe we may have briefly crossed paths in the Guthega carpark on your way up-hill.
Self was off digging pits AST1 , you and mates where headed up the valley....
or shape and dendritic growth?
stryrofoam death balls anyone?
but gee's she's moist..and thickness looks great.
@POW_hungry wanna post some EC skew T ? My pro accue account log on is annoying .
He wouldn't have seen you...as blind as a bat
See this is why I wear distinctive jackets
Gee, were gettin' our cents worth. 13 compared to BOMs 45, phew.
aaaahh th mustard gang.
one of my besty gurls had an old carolla we described in a different manner
can get skew T click on tropical tb's ?
edit, nah soz it BSCH
yeah you can get skew T from GFS on TB's
Mixing ratios are being inhibited by the brisk winds aloft 700- 500hPa and the streamlines are lacking vorticity/ curvature. Confluence is lacking despite the pressure gradients. Equalbrium in the Entropic world sometimes puts its front foot forward and restricts the instability in parcel movement we like to see . Its simply a major downgrade . plenty more opportunities for good falls to come this season.IMO
I would call a major downgrade. Really Really average..........
The wind vectors simply show a lack of contraction over the Alps (more air entering than leaving on the horizontal) = Convergence ingredient - ERV has skipped further North if you look on BSCH plots.
10pm Tonight for perisher
is it still playing up?
Not Buller coordinates ----- ?
The log-in sitch on Accu weather sucks a big ole bag of dicks!
Yep will do when I get home. GFS won't be too far off the pace at T-12 hours though.
Your styro death balls don't really kick in until the back end of the system, in the showers zone. Friday arvo IMO.
150mb DGZ is Gnarls Barkley (740-600mb).
Below is for Falls Creek or there abouts below:
Nah, @Jellybeans1000 threw up Perisher's plots
The Z man wants to leave Vicco behind for the new world.
Nope. Perisher. Didn't know you were a fan Here they are if they of interest.
A bit more psuedoadiabat hugging on the lower plot would be better but it is what it is . Wind vectors on BSCH are somewhat contrary though.
Lel. I wish. Could be a serious plan once I get out of the current situation.
Looks pretty tidy to me.
100mb is good times. 150mb is road coverage in a matter of minutes.
It's still got 15-20cm in the majors, with 25-30cm in Hotham/Falls respectively IMO.
Yeh, I think this pretty much right. I'm not convinced Hotham & Falls will do that much better than anyone else, but it's looking like 15-25cm for all the majors to me.
34cm for Mt P.
Falls loves to report on a sprinkle more
Yeah I thought a bit more for Perisher and Thredbo IMO too. 25-30cm for Big 4 and 15-25cm for Buller my two cents.
Central Tablelands for Friday: Partly cloudy. High chance of rain in the southwest, slight chance in the northeast. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible small hail in the west in the afternoon. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 13.
Take a look at the trajectory of the centre of the low on the animated sat pic. It’s pushing NE pretty strongly. I reckon this system will surprise a bit on the upside, particularly in NSW...
actuals out doing the predictions?.......now that would be a rarity !
Always NSW , its higher.
No he's talking about favourable wind directions. Height doesn't mean everything.