Predictions 1st -11th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Donza, Jun 25, 2015.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just like that , the models start to show somethining interesting in this period.
    1st system is showing on AXS circa 1st July.
    2nd is showing quite large on the extended charts around the 6th.
    It looks quite interesting.
    I expect these dates to be quite fluid.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    2nd July
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Then second blast.
    just needs to move a tiny bit east and its on.
    look at 5700m tracks. Further east than the past month.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to tell what it going to happen when the blocking high pattern moves on right now, AXS and GFS quite different in what they are progging this morning. The chart below shows this period at about 9:30-10:00, looking to be building over the past few runs. But what happens with the stuff at 12 oclock is what is going to determine what happens afterwards:
    [​IMG]
    At the moment? Too hard to tell, too risky to go out on a limb with any certainty IMO.
     
  5. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Sorry, didn't see this thread...

    Looking further ahead, and there are a lot of nice fronts in the westerly belt to our south – but the trailing high moves in today and will do its job of blocking these from surging up to us. That’s the pattern into next week, but it should be cold enough for snowmaking overnight for a while. We’ll see some cloud as these fronts move past, but its generally quite sunny with light winds.

    The pattern won’t last forever. These fronts eventually chip away enough to weaken the high and help lose its footing over the southeast of the nation. This gets it all ready for a strong system to arrive late in the week – and there’s the potential for a strong front, driven by a deep low and cold pool of air, to deliver SNOW.
     
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  6. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Fronts are not going to push into the high until the Southern Annular Mode drops. SAM is currently above +2 which is about as high as it reaches.

    [​IMG]

    Map below shoes the subtropical ridge is sitting at about 35 to 40 south around the entire soutehrn hemisphere.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC really likes it (2nd) today. Still massive fluctuations between model runs, I'll be giving it a few days to settle down.
    But at least something to watch.
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup needs to shift north more to let fronts through.
     
  9. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well at least it is something to watch.

    BOM chart looks good.
     
  10. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    AXS really pushes the 5400 line WELL into NSW, up to the NT's and just shy of Qld. Worries me though that it collapses in Axs on Friday so much and so quickly. Surely hints that the extent of the intrusion Wed/Thurs must come back southwards.

    GFS flat this morning, and CC's fave shows a bit of promise as well. Hope it comes off. School hols imminent.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is fluctuating wildly between 6 hourly runs.
    As you can see the ensemble spag and spread show a wide range of possibilities
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Even EC ensemble is hardly conclusive[​IMG]
     
  12. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    yr no is going all out for a very cold bust with moderate snow around the 3rd July
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's because it's from EC.
     
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  14. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    yr.no for Mount Perisher has a tentative 23cms approx. at this time.
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Latest GFS not even interested for 1st-3rd..
    Much more interested for later system.
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I have a feeling that the 1-3 is a non starter, but will soften the high up for the following later system. IMO
     
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  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO it all depends on a trough near WA. How that shapes the High following
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Double whammy from EC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah have just been at swimming with poppy , waiting waiting
    Literally logged onto these
    Boom
    Its a very fluid period.
    Hence the long date range
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS update will be interesting.
    Then GFS will go all in.
    what will happen...
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, GFS seems to always follow. Whether it is an upgrade or downgrade.
     
  22. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFs fixation on potential ECL is slowing high. Once that is abandoned then will normalise with axs and EC IMO
     
  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big blocking high for that system on the 1st.

    Next system, (At about 12'oclock at animation end) looks juicy

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC says youre incorrect
    This for Perisher
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Did I mention I'm heading down on the friday for 9 days?
    That hopecast.
    Great looking Yr.no
     
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  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  27. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might need the chains Sat week.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  30. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Back on topic.... I predict much caution for a few days yet as models seem to need plenty of time atm
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Models just need trends and consistency.
    Look for the same outcome from the 00 and 12 runs day after day
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    With out a downward trend
     
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  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah one batting the same course... the others on a upswing
     
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict this one will bring 30 cm of the best snow Australia has seen, which will be useless

    Just to troll the trolls
     
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  35. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like access g showing it squeezed out a little on the latest run for the 2nd of july.
    Still plenty of potential and the breakdown of the high pressure belt during this period.
     
  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This period has good vibe. Starting to plan work commitments so i'm available for a meeting with Huey at Thredbo.
     
  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's my take too, on said make-believe chart
     
  38. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought we are in agreement for once. 3rd onwards looks good. Thickness favourable.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont look at just one variable that's favourable to you and think that's all the justification you need for a system to deliver.
     
  40. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    We’ve got a high pressure system moving over the southeast of the nation today. This will encourage light winds, dry weather and clear skies.

    That lasts for today only though. Cold fronts will clip the Victorian coast over the weekend, letting cloud spread through. But it stays dry, and the airmass should be cold enough for snowmaking at times. Then the high takes full control again early next week, for a few days of sunshine and light winds.

    A stronger front is likely to break through around Wednesday next week. There’s plenty of cold air, but no connection to tropical moisture – so this brings 10 to 20 cm of snow. It paves the way for another, potentially stronger front around the weekend, with more snow.
     
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT is flat as a tack, only clippers until dream time (>+168hrs). It's nice to get 10cms every few days in August, but when yo u need a season starter it's kinda annoying.
     
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  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I posted MSLP and Precip about 10 posts before.
     
  43. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need the clippers to break down the high and make room for a season starter
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO the progression goes like this
    Clipper.
    Zonal westerly belt.
    Trough near WA breaks up High
    stronger cold front towards the 7/8th..
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    So disappointment, hope, downgrade, disappointment? :(
     
  47. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Unless the high sits below Perth for a week... IMO
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS struggles IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No?
    Things are looking much more interesting than they were.
     
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  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    You think that's struggling, you should see it around 9/10 July...