Predictions 1st -11th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Donza, Jun 25, 2015.

  1. kneeknocker

    kneeknocker Hard Yards

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    DPS Driver and Blindrun like this.
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wow!

    Can pan and zoom, too.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  5. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Now this is weird, Moss Vale min. temps 4 July less than Thredbo AWS mins. Gong down to 6.4.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never been to Moss Vale, sorry Stephen. But given it sits at elevation (on a stepped plateau) I would hazard a guess and say that it's still low enough to be influenced by the inversion layer. The light westerly winds are bringing that cold descending air straight off the higher elevations. Cooma, Jindy, Beridale are all under the influence of similar conditions.

    Last weekend I camped in Beridale. I woke to -7c, yet in the resorts it was +3-4 degrees! Quite common to experience this sort of phenomenon with clear, broad high pressure systems trailing Low pressure cells bearing cold pools.
     
  7. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    While gazing into misty futures, don't lose sight of 9-10th (ACCESS-G says cold enough):

    [​IMG]

    Decent confidence now (different model):

    [​IMG]


    But GEFS bifurcates by the 12th (other thread). On this plot, it's more likely than not that the huge dump won't happen (not saying nothing happens, just that Donza may not have to deal with a certain popular descriptor):

    [​IMG]
     
    #357 Gerg, Jul 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2015
  8. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Some are calling the system due sunday night/ Monday a dud and aren't confident about much happening through the week as well. Optimism replaced by............ the usual I guess.
     
  9. kaegee

    kaegee One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Found the same last year at Bundanoon while staying on way home.
     
  10. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Some are still saying its ok from late Monday to mid/late Wednesday but how much in the fall ? maybe 10cms average.

    Then the 48 hours on the 10th through 11th seem to be ok but again maybe only 10 cm average.

    We still have some hope here
     
  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Plenty of scope for optimism
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and the regular readers of this column , the punters i.e , are rather gun shy till 3 or 4 days out.
    Last week was a classic fiz so the wounds are still very raw from that one.
    Add this to the significant shadow of el nino and nothing yet on the ground .....
    But with this next week or two there is change, and it's looking a lot better than it was this time last week.
    IMO
     
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  13. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    You mean 6-7th? Was never much there, although The Cat did use the 30 number at one stage. Still maybe 5 cm IMO.

    9-10th could surprise ... a wet northerly feed, but relatively cold. GFS, in °F (ACCESS-G is similar):

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes, 6th looking pretty miserly now :(
    EC thinks the 10th might bring a dusting. I'm not convinced.
     
  15. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is yet another major downgrade to a system which had been viewed with some optimism, yes? My mate arrives from W.A. on the 10th.
     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    While people's attention are focused on the next system, BoM are saying snow on Friday

    Thursday 9 July
    Becoming cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Patches of morning frost. Medium (50%) chance of rain about the ranges, slight (20%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1300 metres. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    Friday 10 July
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain about the alpine peaks, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    85% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The 10th is looking rather good IMO.
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    temps a bit marginal? Perhaps above 1600m?
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO, not an issue, 500hPa are cold.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    But on the latest GFS it all seems to be slipping into the 11th.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still has it arriving on the 10th though

    [​IMG]

    850hPas around 0

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It is a bit 50/50 if the pre frontal part arriving Thursday night Friday morning will snow or rain but won't matter too much apart from an extra 20 cm
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'm not seeing prefrontal at all.
    Looks very cold from Wednesday night and staying that way.
    A slightly warmer period Thursday afternoon, but still sub-zero.
     
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  23. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Cold NW start to this. Like.
     
  24. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Crikey
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is a thing of beauty.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lock it in, Eddie.
     
  27. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    That 4 Day'er is pure porn.

    Sunday was looking incredible, going off that run, Saturday looks better, way better. That double front!

    Like like like
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just sitting in jindy... waiting. .
     
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  30. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Should also be some snow making opportunity over the next couple of days.
     
  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would come say hi but still crook. This will start Thursday with a little breather on Friday morning and then ..... its on
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This is not a prediction.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I predict I won't have to wait long
     
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  34. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    I predict that I WILL have some great fun next week and the week after that on the 40- 60 cms of fresh.
     
  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winner!
    Least relevant post if the day!
    All looking good.
     
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  36. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Will snow Friday am -- that first front / trough. Has been showing for days now. Marginal temps, but ok (abt 1°C at 1500 m); IMO could be more than a little. (Largely missing from the old-server EC precip plots because it's out of sync with the 12 hour precip / 24 hour plotting interval.)

    ACCESS-R:

    [​IMG]
     
    #386 Gerg, Jul 7, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2015
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  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I predict you'll be softing it in Jindy, waiting for the storm to pass. :D
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict this gives us the base to start.
    It's just grass at the moment.
    Will need another mother to follow to access all areas ...
     
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  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nom, nom, nom...

    Friday 10 July
    Cloudy. Very high chance (90%) of rain in the west, medium (60%) chance elsewhere, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow above 1200 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    30% at 1000m
    Saturday 11 July
    Cloudy. Very high chance (95%) of showers in the west, medium (60%) chance elsewhere Snow above 800 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    95% at 1800m
    90% at 1400m
    70% at 1000m
     
  42. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The charts are the most promising they have been season to date. Let's hope it exceeds expectations & by the 18th we will have 1m to play, or more, on runs that benefit from wind blown.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winds are far from the blizzard conditions Grasshoper refers to HERE.
     
  44. Qroozn

    Qroozn Hard Yards

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    Given the current system looks done and dusted and this thread crosses into the next system ; can we rename this thread "Predictions 1st -9th July"? and close it off so we can lick the wounds?
     
  45. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just sitting at Eucumbene.... waiting... for a plumber..
     
  46. OuterLimits

    OuterLimits Hard Yards

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    Most of the resorts rely on a strong westerly airflow (stronger the better) to fill everything in, snowfences, lifts etc all take advantage of it. Am i correct that we will only get strong westerlies out of the Sat-Mon stage of this system? The subsequent ECL will drop more or less without wind, any wind that does come is in the wrong direction, am i talking crap or is that relatively correct?
    By the way, as a long time lurker thanks to all the knowledgeable people on here to keep me informed of the swinging of all the models, some very smart people on here, thank you!!
     
  47. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    I agree Outer, there is no shortage of cold air in this system but it looks a little light on moisture and the wind direction is not ideal for much of it. This may be why models are not really producing large precip totals. Big snowfalls for Falls and Hotham come from NW wind flow. NSW resorts get biggest snow from the W or NW. BawBaw SW. Buller SW through NW. Cut off lows can deliver even bigger though especially if slow moving and cold enough.