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1st - 2nd May (->3rd)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Djon, Apr 26, 2006.

  1. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Recent GFS runs are pointing to some cooler air from the afternoon of the 1st into the 2nd, with a little associated moisture. Currently looking cold enough for a little snow about higher ground (>1700m), and perhaps even some for Baw Baw in the south.

    Doesn't look like it will be as signficant as some of the recent falls but is one to see how it 'develops' now that it is inside a week out. GFS has been pretty good so far this year for predicting snowfalls, hopefully it's on the money here as well.
     
  2. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Damn ridging highs [​IMG]
     
    #2 Bugski, Apr 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Yeah, not looking as good with temperatures being up a bit in the last few runs. Below is this mornings 108hr for 10am on the 2nd for just SE Aus showing 1830m temperatures, precipitation, and pressure. It looks *just* too warm, though it is showing a 'cooler' 0C pool further north.

    <img src='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/images/forecasts/seaus/seaus.108.2006042712.gif'>


    Live (2x daily, 6hr resolution) versions of these charts and more info is <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/weather/forecasts/australia/seaus'>here</a>. The chart layout/colours etc. are still being developed. They are being built meant to give a more direct and detailed indication of snowfall potential in SE Aus based on GFS. Note in particular the precipitation scale is different (more detailed at lower precip levels) to the other GFS plots.
     
  4. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

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    From AusSnow (updated this morning http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm ):
    MONDAY 1/5/06...Generally cloudy with extensive highland fog and mist fresh southwest to southerly winds, scattered showers/drizzle more general in southern and western areas...MIN TEMPS 1 to 3°C MAX TEMPS 3 to 5°C

    TREND FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK: Showers Monday receding south and east of the region by Tuesday, brief sunny breaks Tuesday then winds tending northerly Wednesday ahead of a trough with further showers overnight Wednesday into Thursday, risk of wet snow / sleet on the higher ridges Thursday, another high pressure approaches later Friday with more settled conditions and a few overnight frosts.
     
    #4 AUSSKY, Apr 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  5. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    1-2nd look like they won't 'happen', but the 3rd is looking interesting now.

    <img src='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/images/forecasts/seaus/seaus.126.2006042800.png'>
     
  6. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    This mornings GFS is only showing around freezing conditions up high breifly during the day on the 3rd. GFS has been all over the shop for these few days through to the 6th. It doesn't look too promising for much, or even any snow for the coming week. Hopefully things will 'turn around' again...
     
  7. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    yeah looks like some shower activity on and off most of the week nothing substancal and not going to be overly cold either so not looking much like snow in the near future anyways
     
  8. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Except for more snow in tassie this week, which suits us snow freaks down here just fine! Should snow on and off from wednesday through until saturday above 1000m! Keep an eye on our cams which are up and running now.
     
  9. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Yeah looks pretty good (cold w/precipitation) for Tassie from Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again on Friday into Saturday. The cool-enough air just staying south of the mainland.
     
  10. quro

    quro First Runs

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    impressive charts.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    if that cold air was just a bit further north...
     
  12. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Why was 1830m chosen for the altitude? I'd rather know it was snowing at the bottom of a resort than the top.
     
  13. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    I was wondering that too, its sounds suspiciously like a NSW centric based report who need the extra altitude to make up for their tropical weather. :p
     
    #13 Alex.C, May 1, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Good question, but it is far from the truth, I have a Vic bias anyway! [​IMG]

    1830m equals 6000ft, and the GFS forecast model provides a specific forecast temperature for this altitude. Similarly it provides temperatures at 3000ft and 9000ft but is of less relevance to forecasting snow for Aus.

    It is possible to also generate charts for other altitudes, and there is be something along these lines is in the pipeline. In the mean time the 1830m level gives a good indication as to the temperatures at other levels. eg. -2 at 1830m could mean freezing down to 1500 odd meters, depending upon the lapse rate.
     
    #14 Djon, May 1, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. zar

    zar One of Us

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    There's likely to be significant amounts of snow to quite low levels today put Friday's and Sunday's weather into the equation then it's white-out here in Tasmania.

    Currently 6 degrees in Hobart I expect that snowline may be down to 400 metres before the day is out!
     
    #15 zar, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  16. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Not as much as expected, but Cradle is getting a bit out of this system from the webcam.

    <table border=0><tr><td>
    <img src=http://darb.net/photos/anonymous/cradle_0305a.thumb.jpg></td><td><img src=http://darb.net/photos/anonymous/cradle_0305b.thumb.jpg></td></tr></table>
     
  17. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Pity the Ben cam isn,t working again! But snow started there early this morning and will continue all day [​IMG]
     
    #17 BenLomond Iceman, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. zar

    zar One of Us

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    The Ben Lomond cam always let's us down in big weather events such as today!

    Anyhow, back south - here's a view of Mt Wellington in Hobart taken at about 1pm.
    It's been -3 degrees all day on the summit and dipping to 5 degrees in the city during bouts of showers...the scene tomorrow morning should be a great one
    [​IMG]
     
    #18 zar, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    snowing now up top Thredbo.....
    Looks like a nice little base tonight before Sundays "DUMP"....(20- 30 cm Sun)
     
  20. Malkatraz

    Malkatraz First Runs

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    Snow to 300m in the south of Tas according to BOM. The western side of the Western Tiers have been absolutely puked on. Mt. Roland rarely gets snow, only a few days in winter, but its got a fair bit too. There was a fair bit that dropped between 2 and 4pm so the Dove Lake car park should be covered now.
     
  21. coldandsnowy

    coldandsnowy First Runs

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    Beeper, where did you get those cam images?
     
  22. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    -0.4 at hotham now so could be little white in the morning!
     
  23. phall

    phall Hard Yards

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    coldandsnowy, please correct me if I am wrong but I have read on here that they are the government webcams that are not available yet to the public..
     
  24. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    coldandsnowy, the Cradle webcams shots are from a tas govt dept (DTAE), which I have access to. For the public interest I will post images from the cams when its worthwhile. These shots do give a good indication of whats happening in Western Tasmania, where the majority of Tasmania's snow gets collected.