Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

Tags:
  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    AAO/SAM on a legit dive over the next week.

    1st-5th looking like a start IMO. Trend and alignment is there.
    1-2 punch on GFS this arvo.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC 00z with one heck of a set-up:

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    446
    Likes Received:
    831
    GFS going for a very similar cut off scenario on the 1st as the current event:

    Followed up by a polar our burst on the 3rd...

    And then an ECL fed dump of biblical proportions on the 6th just for giggles...love the entertainment value of GFS...
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Unadulterated dump.
    18Z GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I reckon this one is good to go with a thread, looking like a strong system gathering momentum in the ensembles and now the deterministic models, as it moves into the medium term. Still room to falter, but I think all the climate drivers and the models are pointing in this direction, so something is gonna happen.

    Below is some analysis that I have prepared for my blog, that would work seamlessly here.

    “Something that was called in our last outlook a little more than 2 weeks back is becoming clearer to see now.


    There are a number of schools of thoughts from the modelling about this period:

    • EPS (above) is looking for a peaking trough through the 2nd-4th of July, with this being on trend in terms of timeline from previous runs (albeit it has significantly strengthened in nature since)
    • GEFS (below) delivers us a more muted affair trying to come up over the 4th all the way through to the 7th, not as grand or strong as the EPS effort. This has been on for about two runs, succeeding a less bountiful collapsing trough to clip SE Australia, so the system is improving on trend on GEFS.
    • GEPS (not pictured) offers a more meagre scenario with a break between the ridges during the 3rd to 5th of July, being the less exciting of the models for this period. The Canadian ensemble has bucked the timeline of previous runs, pushing forward from the 1st-3rd July.

    EPS is certainly the keen one and certainly has decent trend and reputation to back it. Beyond the modelling solutions, looking at the projected long wave node on GFS:


    The LWT is aligned roughly around the 3rd of July. The best systems typically occur just after the long wave node, so it implies that the best possible period of favourability for the SE Australia region would be from the 3rd to the 6th. But as Deterministic GFS has appointed itself upon in the most recent run, we could always have a curtain-raiser just as the node begins to pass.


    And the better main system which the first trough has cleared for gets to pass through on the 3rd-7th of July.



    EC also has a massive node in the Bight, that is due to land in SE Australia’s doorstep around the 3rd of July. It is yet to be seen if this peaks over SA, or the ridge leans over it and pushes the conveyor belt right into the Australian Alps. It also might be pushed a little later as this system forecast matures, but it’s certainly the stage on what could very well be the season starter for 2020.”

    All IMO.
    Exciting times ahead :thumbs:
     
  6. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    957
    Likes Received:
    2,048
    Location:
    Illawarra
    Need that fella to lock in for the school holidays. Coz Jellybeans next system on the 10th July or so coming a bit late-ish in the piece for the kiddies.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Certainly a solid chance to verify
     
    steeps and teleroo like this.
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Appearing a fair bit more flattened by the ridge on EC & GFS Determs this today (12z & 00z).
    Ensembles seem a little flakey on it too.

    Still something there just looks rationalised IMO.
     
  9. steeps

    steeps One of Us

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    279
    Location:
    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    I’m all in as per my BBQ thread !
     
  10. Young Angus

    Young Angus Addicted

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2018
    Messages:
    167
    Likes Received:
    123
    This sounds much more exciting!
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,103
    Likes Received:
    20,333
    Location:
    Canberra
    Very interesting
     
    SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS 06Z not mincing words this evening.
    Back to it's low level stacked system:
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Something big in the jungle.
    Just gotta hope that the ridge isn’t bigger.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,103
    Likes Received:
    20,333
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yeah. Its showing some quite good broad scale magnitude
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Comparing the three main models, they all have the depth and magnitude there. It’s basically about the positioning of the high behind pushing the GFS up in the following frames, which will all come in time.


    Looking like the models are honing the system in for roughly the 4th-6th July period, which is a good start.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,355
    Likes Received:
    58,582
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Do you believe in unicorns?
     
    Claude Cat and Nightskywatcher like this.
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Who doesn’t want to believe in it? Given the fact it has strong backing.
     
  18. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    I’m really cautious on this system, we’ve been burnt a couple of times now by a strong ridge influence imo
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,103
    Likes Received:
    20,333
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS showing some gusto. Soundings in the Downstream are throwing up some big numbers- Total Totals of up to 57 :eek:
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    Control



    Very decent trough on paper this one.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's broad and dominant just need ridge support. Bit flat again this morning.
     
  22. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,265
    Likes Received:
    2,004
    Sounds like my plumber...
     
    Chales Guthrie likes this.
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    Looking @ the mslp on those ec plots if they verify and i don't see why not atm. The front will have eroded the ridge big time as shown on plot 2. Those heights are lower where the top of the c/front would be as its passing over SA and into lower NT.





    On another note big tanking of the aao forecast.


     
  24. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    446
    Likes Received:
    831
    Not much alignment at present. GFS still hanging on to a meaningful cold pool pushing north to become a decent system from the 1st. ECMF has it missing and CMC shows a very large cold pool that peaks too early in the Bight (and slips south before the alps). IMO if that high over NZ got a wriggle on a bit earlier CMC's front could feasibly peak further to the east and be more in line with GFS. That could be interesting.



     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    It just feels a little irrational.

    A 1020hPa ridge holding down lows powered by a -4.5 sd AAO on EC.
    It just seems a little bizarre. As models tend to be at this range.

    You just need more of a meridional flow in the extratropics, to polarise the contrast between the ridge and trough, and make that ridge push the trough up like GFS.

    There is so much more here IMO.
     
    SMSkier and stormkite2000 like this.
  26. steeps

    steeps One of Us

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    279
    Location:
    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Irrational has its fans......ala the Froggie

    "We will then see a break in the weather with mostly fine days and clear nights through to the 30th. This will allow the snowmakers to really get a good mad made base going, but unfortunately only the man made snow areas will be open for skiing and boarding.

    Looking long range there is a good chance of light snow around the 2nd-5th of July after some initial showers on the 1st. With the high pressure systems still dominating our weather we should only see light snowfalls. Until these highs in the southern hemisphere weaken this pattern will continue.

    Further ahead the 8th-10th could see some snow falling and then around the 13th. A system due on the 17th-19th looks like a much better positioned system between the highs. Hopefully this one drops something decent"
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  27. steeps

    steeps One of Us

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    279
    Location:
    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Then again - current ACCESS has the Blue Line willing but still just a tad too deep ?



    Windy has an even stronger ridge effect on the same date of the 2nd of July

     
    7wombathead likes this.
  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,459
    Likes Received:
    6,857
    Location:
    Melbourne
    BOM have suggested today according to their modelling that the weather system that is predicted to arrive in the first days of July could bring us some proper snowfalls. I would settle for 10 -15 cms of snow quite easily.

    At present Ms.Bunn's modelling concurs with this and estimates a predicted 10 cm of snow at Mt. Hotham. Of course this will leap about until Monday or Tuesday next week.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    So going against every long term driver and all of the models on a hunch, when he got his last hunch wrong. Classic over-correction IMO.

    So he is either a magical wizard or flipping a coin.
     
  30. steeps

    steeps One of Us

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    279
    Location:
    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Yesterday the Froggies cm count was I think +55cm in the next 15 days...today...not so much at 21cm. Plenty of Flip Flopping to come on this date range I hope !

    Some of these if you are Sud Afrikan...

    [​IMG]
     
    skimax likes this.
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    GFS is talking business:
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Stay on Topic.
    Feel free to click ‘Ignore’ if posts of a member bother you.

    Off topic posts will deleted.
     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    AccessG3 @240hrs,imo don't even waste your time with it.EC ens @ this range is the benchmark. The big hint there as the others noticed is aao forecast.

     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I agree Ensembles are truth right now.
     
    cornice11 and stormkite2000 like this.
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044







    Times will switch about for sure.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    CMC looking very workable too, with the 2nd July front, and then something coming in from behind after the end of the run:

    Plenty of deep cold there.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,103
    Likes Received:
    20,333
    Location:
    Canberra
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Watch that low in SW WA 29/30th it's movement will determine the follow-up.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,887
    Likes Received:
    1,556
    Location:
    South
    The trend is there but. Looking Good.
     
    steeps likes this.
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,887
    Likes Received:
    1,556
    Location:
    South
    Its looking very nice an active down south. SOI must be Negative. That is a lot of blue and purple.

    [​IMG]
     
    cornice11 and steeps like this.
  41. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    Messages:
    250
    Likes Received:
    462
    I like... next frame please...!
     
    cornice11 likes this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,103
    Likes Received:
    20,333
    Location:
    Canberra
     
  43. steeps

    steeps One of Us

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    279
    Location:
    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Is that kind of weird that our Deep Purple Blob friend is bending to the right v the normal deep fetch to the left we would normally associate with “ game on “ ?
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    What you're looking at in those plots are height contours (500mb), not to be mistaken as MSLP isobars.
    Fetch is relative to MSLP. You won't find fetch in Height contours.
     
    steeps and Jacko4650 like this.
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC Ensembles 2-5th July progression.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,230
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Divergence between EC and an aligned GFS and The Canuck this morning.

    EC favours the peak through SW WA.
    The other two like the cold outbreak in the SE.
    We wait.
     
    SMSkier and cornice11 like this.
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    18z GFS run. The two fronts the first is a complexs lpa area, the second spreading the cold air over vic is the piggy back. Thinks GFS.










     
    #47 stormkite2000, Jun 24, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
    Goon_Squad, cornice11 and snowgum like this.
  48. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    4,445
    Likes Received:
    2,311
    Location:
    vic
    A nice graphic that really helps us Wannebe Met folk understand! Cheers! :thumbs:
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044

    Dr unicorn is thinking he may book you in for a prostrate exam on the 3-4th.
    :)
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,355
    Likes Received:
    58,582
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    that's a very unusual thing to say..... in particular if it's hanging off a GFS forecast at 240hrs..... LOL

    *but undoubtedly you have better idea of what's gonna happen than I do and if those charts from 3 days ago verify then that's great for everyone.