Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

POW Hungry

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AAO/SAM on a legit dive over the next week.

1st-5th looking like a start IMO. Trend and alignment is there.
1-2 punch on GFS this arvo.
gfs_z500a_aus_47.png
 

Jellybeans

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I reckon this one is good to go with a thread, looking like a strong system gathering momentum in the ensembles and now the deterministic models, as it moves into the medium term. Still room to falter, but I think all the climate drivers and the models are pointing in this direction, so something is gonna happen.

Below is some analysis that I have prepared for my blog, that would work seamlessly here.

“Something that was called in our last outlook a little more than 2 weeks back is becoming clearer to see now.

5B681774-0CC8-4CE8-A035-B155FA969B7E.png

There are a number of schools of thoughts from the modelling about this period:

  • EPS (above) is looking for a peaking trough through the 2nd-4th of July, with this being on trend in terms of timeline from previous runs (albeit it has significantly strengthened in nature since)
  • GEFS (below) delivers us a more muted affair trying to come up over the 4th all the way through to the 7th, not as grand or strong as the EPS effort. This has been on for about two runs, succeeding a less bountiful collapsing trough to clip SE Australia, so the system is improving on trend on GEFS.
  • GEPS (not pictured) offers a more meagre scenario with a break between the ridges during the 3rd to 5th of July, being the less exciting of the models for this period. The Canadian ensemble has bucked the timeline of previous runs, pushing forward from the 1st-3rd July.
BCC1B16D-620A-48BA-9406-7431057BF734.png

EPS is certainly the keen one and certainly has decent trend and reputation to back it. Beyond the modelling solutions, looking at the projected long wave node on GFS:

81EE0304-7F62-4B29-977F-B24EE97D469F.png

The LWT is aligned roughly around the 3rd of July. The best systems typically occur just after the long wave node, so it implies that the best possible period of favourability for the SE Australia region would be from the 3rd to the 6th. But as Deterministic GFS has appointed itself upon in the most recent run, we could always have a curtain-raiser just as the node begins to pass.

D73C2F5D-C4D8-4407-8435-C2021D7D1881.gif

And the better main system which the first trough has cleared for gets to pass through on the 3rd-7th of July.

131B6448-017C-4BEB-AAA2-0AEEB66C4A84.png


EC also has a massive node in the Bight, that is due to land in SE Australia’s doorstep around the 3rd of July. It is yet to be seen if this peaks over SA, or the ridge leans over it and pushes the conveyor belt right into the Australian Alps. It also might be pushed a little later as this system forecast matures, but it’s certainly the stage on what could very well be the season starter for 2020.”

All IMO.
Exciting times ahead :thumbs:
 

POW Hungry

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Appearing a fair bit more flattened by the ridge on EC & GFS Determs this today (12z & 00z).
Ensembles seem a little flakey on it too.

Still something there just looks rationalised IMO.
upload_2020-6-22_17-18-13.png
 

steeps

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Ok - Technically outside of this threads date range, but I have a vested interest in Mid July - Windy as of the 26th of June shows a non-friendly High Dominance Pattern ? Things may or may not change, but it doesn't look like we get much action post this cut off low...for a while ?

upload_2020-6-17_13-32-32.png
I’m all in as per my BBQ thread !
 
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Jellybeans

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Yeah. Its showing some quite good broad scale magnitude
Comparing the three main models, they all have the depth and magnitude there. It’s basically about the positioning of the high behind pushing the GFS up in the following frames, which will all come in time.
81A10792-F21D-41BF-BC79-DE1C1DA61B2B.gif


Looking like the models are honing the system in for roughly the 4th-6th July period, which is a good start.
 

stormkite2000

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It's broad and dominant just need ridge support. Bit flat again this morning.

Looking @ the mslp on those ec plots if they verify and i don't see why not atm. The front will have eroded the ridge big time as shown on plot 2. Those heights are lower where the top of the c/front would be as its passing over SA and into lower NT.





On another note big tanking of the aao forecast.


ecmwf_aao_2020062200.png
 

Gregah

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Not much alignment at present. GFS still hanging on to a meaningful cold pool pushing north to become a decent system from the 1st. ECMF has it missing and CMC shows a very large cold pool that peaks too early in the Bight (and slips south before the alps). IMO if that high over NZ got a wriggle on a bit earlier CMC's front could feasibly peak further to the east and be more in line with GFS. That could be interesting.
upload_2020-6-23_12-53-46.png


upload_2020-6-23_12-54-41.png

upload_2020-6-23_12-58-0.png
 

Jellybeans

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It just feels a little irrational.

A 1020hPa ridge holding down lows powered by a -4.5 sd AAO on EC.
It just seems a little bizarre. As models tend to be at this range.

You just need more of a meridional flow in the extratropics, to polarise the contrast between the ridge and trough, and make that ridge push the trough up like GFS.

There is so much more here IMO.
 

steeps

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Irrational has its fans......ala the Froggie

"We will then see a break in the weather with mostly fine days and clear nights through to the 30th. This will allow the snowmakers to really get a good mad made base going, but unfortunately only the man made snow areas will be open for skiing and boarding.

Looking long range there is a good chance of light snow around the 2nd-5th of July after some initial showers on the 1st. With the high pressure systems still dominating our weather we should only see light snowfalls. Until these highs in the southern hemisphere weaken this pattern will continue.

Further ahead the 8th-10th could see some snow falling and then around the 13th. A system due on the 17th-19th looks like a much better positioned system between the highs. Hopefully this one drops something decent"
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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BOM have suggested today according to their modelling that the weather system that is predicted to arrive in the first days of July could bring us some proper snowfalls. I would settle for 10 -15 cms of snow quite easily.

At present Ms.Bunn's modelling concurs with this and estimates a predicted 10 cm of snow at Mt. Hotham. Of course this will leap about until Monday or Tuesday next week.
http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
 

Jellybeans

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Irrational has its fans......ala the Froggie

"We will then see a break in the weather with mostly fine days and clear nights through to the 30th. This will allow the snowmakers to really get a good mad made base going, but unfortunately only the man made snow areas will be open for skiing and boarding.

Looking long range there is a good chance of light snow around the 2nd-5th of July after some initial showers on the 1st. With the high pressure systems still dominating our weather we should only see light snowfalls. Until these highs in the southern hemisphere weaken this pattern will continue.

Further ahead the 8th-10th could see some snow falling and then around the 13th. A system due on the 17th-19th looks like a much better positioned system between the highs. Hopefully this one drops something decent"
So going against every long term driver and all of the models on a hunch, when he got his last hunch wrong. Classic over-correction IMO.

So he is either a magical wizard or flipping a coin.
 

steeps

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So going against every long term driver and all of the models on a hunch, when he got his last hunch wrong. Classic over-correction IMO.

So he is either a magical wizard or flipping a coin.

Yesterday the Froggies cm count was I think +55cm in the next 15 days...today...not so much at 21cm. Plenty of Flip Flopping to come on this date range I hope !

Some of these if you are Sud Afrikan...

superdry-sleek-flip-flop.jpg
 
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POW Hungry

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Is that kind of weird that our Deep Purple Blob friend is bending to the right v the normal deep fetch to the left we would normally associate with “ game on “ ?
What you're looking at in those plots are height contours (500mb), not to be mistaken as MSLP isobars.
Fetch is relative to MSLP. You won't find fetch in Height contours.
 

mick chopps

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Dr unicorn is thinking he may book you in for a prostrate exam on the 3-4th.:)
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that's a very unusual thing to say..... in particular if it's hanging off a GFS forecast at 240hrs..... LOL

*but undoubtedly you have better idea of what's gonna happen than I do and if those charts from 3 days ago verify then that's great for everyone.
 
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