Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.
But unfortunately not a lot of moisture on CMC with that backdoor. Still a bit of time...
Look at pressure.
Its a bit HIGH
Atm itt is the model i'm ditching. Ridge looks over-cooked to me
GFS still likes the backend a fair bit, but the trend is one of weakening unfortunately.
Largely ridged out on EC.
CMC and access g for what it’s worth are more in line with gfs re the backend
Bom's model is now in within the range where its a very useful tool.
Nice . That’s even showing snow over the central tablelands with that backend
That map is showing things start a bit earlier
I was looking @ the full duration.
Anyways it looks inline with what i would expect with the trough digging in and lowering the heights.
Is it still looking downgraded from initial predictions or is there room for this to fire up a bit before it kicks in?
General upswing on the charts this morning.
placement of the low friday is critical
EC Det the outlier today.
EC Ens actually agreeing with GFS and the Canuck
So what do you experts make of the BOM charts, is there a ridge developing?
Looks like gfs
shows the trough/front eroding the ridging as it move east..
And the ridge building back in behind. Nice tropical moisture
feed from the nw.
Friday afternoon/night looking decent ish on GFS:
Mountain watch totals look good for Vic (better than NSW) - Esp The ‘big 3G’ (45-50cm).
May ruffle a few feathers if this happens?
That's not usually how it goes.
Imo ec will be on board with this arvos runs
ICON going for 5-10cm and very-much in agreement with GFS this arvo. Complete with embedded low.
Thats a good thing that EC is modelling the embedded low.
Ec starts to look promising then it ridges out . I was wrong with my prediction
Yes true . Shows it then it disappears lol
Trough at best on EC IMO.
EC On any week-end this will do me
From herein nothing is better than boms guidance.
Positively, EC Ensembles upgrading moisture for Thursday night, Friday.
BOM for Thursday:
I still reckon we've got 10-25cm on the table come Saturday AM, IMO.
I reckon the duration + orographic will result in more....
I like axs this evening
Just a few snaps from the GFS's 00z as a reference.
Some nice and cold uppers
Sat. July 4th could be the day for some XC skiiing at JB Plain. We shall wait and see.
Bit of a roller coaster this system, forecast-wise eh? Anything from a Two Foot Storm (tm) to ten cents, and still not settling on a vibe?
Yes it’s difficult to predict with that embedded trough . Good vibe so far especially with ec now showing it
check back in at 96 hrs
im guessing not much to change from this storm for the local hills.
06z run compassion.
GFS 06z looks very-much like EC now.
1024hPa by the time the embedded little-guy hits the alps. It falls apart though Western Vic IMO.
EC's accumulative moisture count by Saturday:
Yes it’s fading away . Going to be 10-15 cm at most rather than 50-60cm at this stage . Still time to change though
Will be a complete fizzer unless that trough builds up and delivers on the backend
What does ec ensembles show for Saturday am
Super fluid IMO.
Another mark one eyeball