Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

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  1. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    But unfortunately not a lot of moisture on CMC with that backdoor. Still a bit of time...
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at pressure.
    Its a bit HIGH
     
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  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Atm itt is the model i'm ditching. Ridge looks over-cooked to me
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still likes the backend a fair bit, but the trend is one of weakening unfortunately.


    Largely ridged out on EC.
     
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  5. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    CMC and access g for what it’s worth are more in line with gfs re the backend
     
  6. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  8. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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  9. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That map is showing things start a bit earlier
     
  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I was looking @ the full duration.


    Anyways it looks inline with what i would expect with the trough digging in and lowering the heights.
     
    #210 stormkite2000, Jun 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2020
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  11. Young Angus

    Young Angus Addicted

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    Is it still looking downgraded from initial predictions or is there room for this to fire up a bit before it kicks in?
     
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    General upswing on the charts this morning.
    placement of the low friday is critical
     
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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Det the outlier today.
    EC Ens actually agreeing with GFS and the Canuck
     
  14. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    So what do you experts make of the BOM charts, is there a ridge developing?
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like gfs
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    4 dayer
    shows the trough/front eroding the ridging as it move east..
    And the ridge building back in behind. Nice tropical moisture
    feed from the nw.
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday afternoon/night looking decent ish on GFS:
     
  18. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mountain watch totals look good for Vic (better than NSW) - Esp The ‘big 3G’ (45-50cm).
    May ruffle a few feathers if this happens? ;)
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's not usually how it goes.
     
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  20. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Imo ec will be on board with this arvos runs
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ICON going for 5-10cm and very-much in agreement with GFS this arvo. Complete with embedded low.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats a good thing that EC is modelling the embedded low.
     
  24. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Ec starts to look promising then it ridges out . I was wrong with my prediction
     
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  25. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Yes true . Shows it then it disappears lol
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trough at best on EC IMO.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC On any week-end this will do me
    .....................................................................................................................................

    From herein nothing is better than boms guidance.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Positively, EC Ensembles upgrading moisture for Thursday night, Friday.


    BOM for Thursday:
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still reckon we've got 10-25cm on the table come Saturday AM, IMO.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the duration + orographic will result in more....
     
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like axs this evening
     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just a few snaps from the GFS's 00z as a reference.
     
  34. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Some nice and cold uppers
     
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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  36. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of a roller coaster this system, forecast-wise eh? Anything from a Two Foot Storm (tm) to ten cents, and still not settling on a vibe?
     
  37. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Yes it’s difficult to predict with that embedded trough . Good vibe so far especially with ec now showing it
     
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  38. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    check back in at 96 hrs ;)
     
  39. N0frilz

    N0frilz Addicted

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    im guessing not much to change from this storm for the local hills.
     
  40. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Who’s local..???o_O
     
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06z run compassion.

    temperature--500_vic_t10_00-090-2020062806z.png temperature--500_vic_t12_00-092-2020062806z.png temperature--500_vic_t14_00-094-2020062806z.png temperature--500_vic_t19_00-123-2020062806z.png
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z looks very-much like EC now.
    1024hPa by the time the embedded little-guy hits the alps. It falls apart though Western Vic IMO.

    EC's accumulative moisture count by Saturday:
     
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  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  44. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Yes it’s fading away . Going to be 10-15 cm at most rather than 50-60cm at this stage . Still time to change though
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles
    Thursday:

    Friday:
     
  46. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Will be a complete fizzer unless that trough builds up and delivers on the backend
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    What does ec ensembles show for Saturday am
     
  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Super fluid IMO.
    Another mark one eyeball
     
  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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