Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

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  1. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Ec still too ridgy . Icon looks the best .(is that a reliable model )?
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's okay, not up there with EC and UKMO.

    But probably around the GFS and CMC verification range.

    Or the next step below with ACCESS.

    I doubt it would be as bad as NAVGEM or JMA, but it has its off days.
     
  3. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Thanks . Appreciate it
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF precip for Thurs-Sat




     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ICON (Global German Standard)
    Resolution: various (Europe 7km, ICON7), (global 13km, ICON13)
    Forecast depth: 5,1 day
    Step: 1 hour
    Updates frequency: 4 times/day

    Created by the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst), the ICON is generally considered to be even more accurate than the ECMWF due to the better resolution, albeit only in Europe. The most important variables of the ICON are considered to be air density and virtual potential temperature, horizontal and vertical wind speed, humidity, cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow. Its small-scale part includes the COSMO model, which will be fully integrated into the ICON by 2020.
    https://windy.app/blog/what-is-a-we...-on-forecast-models-all-around-the-world.html
     
  6. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Thanks for the helpful info . Let’s hope icon is accurate for this period of prediction .
     
  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like another system that has a wet tail IMO.
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    not blowing me back this morning :(
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ICON to Friday 4pm:
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am not seeing any rain after Thursday AM IMO.
    Looks plenty cold until Saturday when it clears out.
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    lol
     
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    schweppervesence
     
  13. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    You have seen the ideas of what several models are modeling now mick. So what's your prediction with this system,an accurate human made forecast be most welcome @ this point.
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models saying what, 15-20cm??
    Decent drop if we had 80cm of base, but we don’t. Farm it around a bit and we might get some more lifts spinning this weekend but won’t be much.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this point, any snow is better than no snow.

    QED.
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No doubt. But best not to believe in unicorns at this point in time. Nothing on the horizon at the moment either....
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    @ this point i'm thinking with 538 dam sweeping over the alp's some area's are likely to exceed 20cm mesoscale factor.

    Happy to eat crow on my prediction, if there's less than 20cm recorded in all spots.QED would be better term after the systems data is collected over multi area's.:) or the bom drops it completely before hand (unlikely).
     
    #270 stormkite2000, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah its a little slingshot . Pretty well placed cold pool .
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sweet spot timing wise .
    Glad she arrives at night
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thanks for posting that. Decent humidity there should be full cloud coverage on that.
     
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  25. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  26. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    This arvo icon,cmc and gfs look reasonable. Ec still Ridgey didge badly
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canuck looks great IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC still looks meh, but between CMC and GFS you could believe ~25cm out of this.
    I'd love to see EC come on board, but it hasn't yet.
     
  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ^ looks better there on the intermediate times - the standard EC plot at 96 and 120 hours looks very average.
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah thats the problem with those plots.
    Miss the sweet spot in the middle...
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It also means it's pretty quick.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe ...its Wednesday night- 6am Saturday IMO
    Sustained flow over the mountains during that time...
    a couple of brief periods 6-8 hrs where a 2/3cm p/hr rate is possible.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t850-1593388800-1593680400-1593896400-80.gif ecmwf-deterministic-aus-rh850-1593388800-1593680400-1593820800-80.gif 850 temp looks in -neg that's should be where the snow is.



     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC Ensemble Precip averages
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So potentially agrees with GFS / CMC for ~25cm
     
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  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM 4 dayer

    [​IMG]


    Australian Alps: Snowy Mountains Forecast
    No warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:30 pm EST on Monday 29 June 2020.

    Weather Situation
    A high pressure system over southeast Australia is slowly tracking to the Tasman Sea as a series of cold fronts approach from the west. The first of these fronts slips to the south on Tuesday. The second front, which is more significant, looks set to cross the state on Thursday. By the weekend a new high pressure system will return over the state.

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Mostly clear. Light winds.

    Chance of snow
    Below 5% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 30 June
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the morning. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower about the alpine peaks at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Wednesday 1 July
    Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the east in the early morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Patches of light morning frost in the west. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Thursday 2 July
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1300 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h tending west to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Friday 3 July
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost in the southeast. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 5:15 am EST Tuesday.

    Product IDN11032

    Thredbo Forecast
    No warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:25 pm EST on Monday 29 June 2020.

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Mostly clear.
    Chance of any rain: 0% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Mostly clear. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 30 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 2
    Very windy. Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or snow at night. Winds northerly 25 to 40 km/h turning northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h before dawn then increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Wednesday 1 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the early morning. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Winds northwesterly 60 to 85 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Thursday 2 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 2
    Snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 70 to 100 km/h decreasing to 55 to 75 km/h during the morning then turning westerly 35 to 50 km/h during the afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 3 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Saturday 4 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h tending southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the day.

    Sunday 5 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 1
    Wind easing. Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.

    Perisher Valley Forecast
    No warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:25 pm EST on Monday 29 June 2020.

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Mostly clear.
    Chance of any rain: 0% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Mostly clear. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 30 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 4
    Partly cloudy.
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or snow at night. Winds northerly 25 to 40 km/h turning northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h before dawn then increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Wednesday 1 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 7
    Shower or two. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the early morning. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Winds northwesterly 60 to 85 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Thursday 2 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 5
    Snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 70 to 100 km/h decreasing to 55 to 75 km/h during the morning then turning westerly 35 to 50 km/h during the afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 3 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Saturday 4 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h tending southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the day.

    Sunday 5 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 3
    Partly cloudy.
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yeah the EPS spread is still at circa 8 mm for the higher parts so its got a bit of ease on up to it potential imo.
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC shows the better Shear profile/ instability for the 2nd and back end. Moisture in the back end still looking a bit lacklustre though.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, Friday night is a bit of a flash in the pan IMO.
     
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  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham

    The Modelling on Ms. Bunn's forecast is now looking like 5-6 cms of snow in total at Falls and Hotham. Not too good :-( . It should change a bit by this time tomorrow.
     
  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Humm boms the best forecast. looking like crows on the menu.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC Advective flow . saturated lifted parcel potential on the 2nd has been a good feature for GFS thus far and the rotational aspects are still looking not too far removed from days ago imo.
     
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Crow pie is best served cold....
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM and their forecast for Falls Creek is still not looking too bad at present. Usually BOM are very reserved and don't indulge in frothing like I do.
    Wednesday 1 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 4
    Showers or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers or snow, most likely at night. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Thursday 2 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow. Winds northwesterly 50 to 60 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 3 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 0
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Saturday 4 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.
     
  46. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Icon and cmc are the best in terms of snow prediction. Gfs is in the middle and ec at the bottom
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    ??????????
     
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  48. JuLe

    JuLe Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Ensemble members precip accumulation @ Thredbo Top Station.
    Only a handul going for >15mm.
     
  50. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    I meant best for this current period In terms of snow prediction @ jellybeans
     
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