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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.
Not too shabby
Right now I'm more worried about your battery life.
Broader looking cold pool sweeping on 12z.
Better back end on 12z rendered as well...
As I predicted the modelling for snow falls according to Ms. Bunn's automated system has improved whereas yesterday evening it was looking grim.
Ms.Bunn has modified her summary to say that overall 10 - 20 cms will fall at the usual places.
NEXT 7 DAYS
Mt Buller: 18cm
Mt Hotham: 14cm
Falls Creek: 8cm
Mt Baw Baw: 13cm
Charlotte Pass: 12cm
Lake Mountain: 13cm
Mt Stirling: cm
Ben Lomond: 6cm
Mt Mawson: 26cm
Yeh, looking broadly like 10-15cm Thursday afternoon through Friday after some early rain going on EC
Great weather for ducks
Radar forecast days 1-3. Some-thing looks fishy here with cm totals being touted on models.
As usual we know there will be cold and moisture , just hope they coincide.
The current snowfall figures for Perisher:
I’ll go 15-25cm for the MR personally, I still think there can be some decent falls for the region.
You can also see better figures for Buller in the latest Bureau forecast:
It's the weather that sweeps within the modeled colder pool sweeping the alps that is not being well resolved imo. I will it leave here @ i do think in some areas over the alps will see pukes.
Upgrades on latest runs
Thursday Looking good up high, Friday Looking good down low
Looking good for 15-25cm for most of the resorts, particularly up high and south with the Thursday falls. IMO.
Definitely looking a bit better across all models this afternoon.
Like Canuck a bunch
Looks like a little sting in the tail, too?
Good evening all and happy June 30 (for the banking and finance guys and gals)
How are/is the team holding up? I hope all are safe and well with Covid.
I've been tracking this system for a while and trying to get my membership reset.
The big stick did well and reset me so now I'm good to go.
I'll ease into the flow of the thread to not "hickup" the thought process.
But I'm seeing backend potential.
Snow down to 1100m late-Friday night, Saturday morning for the CT's/OP, IMO.
Not a lot of moisture left in it though by this stage unfortunately.
Its been a long and tough Autumn but I'm back
RE: The Mainland Alps. Not sure what others are referring to in terms of improvement. I am not seeing any change at all.
Thursday looks like about 10-15mm ahead of the switch mid-morning Thursday. 5-10cm accumulation after that.
Friday arvo only showing 5-8cm on GFS & EC this evening.
Still looks to me like 10-25cm Thursday mid-morning to Saturday AM IMO.
EC Friday arvo:
I’m going Saturday morning to Oberon for the weekend . Hoping for a bit of snow up top of Jenolan or shooters Hill . Will be cold enough but not sure re moisture. Fingers crossed
I saw the potential of the trailing H to slingshot the modelled cut-off / cold pool couple of days ago.
Thoughts where your input was missing to date.
Been waiting for the NBN to slowly filter thru to the Cen co.
A week ago, I was balls to the wall for a season starter BUT now it's looking more like 20cm across the lower resorts with a possible 40cm for the main range..
The low that stalled over the North Island of NZ for the last 4 days ruined our party SO track the NZ stall moving forward.
Take away the ECL/Tasman Low Blockers and the highs will move. The next trough/ low that picks the gap will dump.
This wandering cold pool looks to push into northern NSW. As it bombs south, watch it.... it should suck the life out of the trailing high.
If it does, that's our window.
EC Stream function looks a bit messy and a tad undesirable to me.
Hey mate, I was also tracking the tripple header waiting for the sling but it bombed.
I gave it 3 days hoping for an upgrade but the SST didn't have enough to feed it.
ITS all negative SST in the bight so that's why systems are drying out as they cross Vic.
We need a proper BRUTE system. LOW in the Bass Straight to feed off the east coast.
Without the Bight moisture feed, it needs to be a southern ocean BRUTE. Unfortunately.
Too much lateral roaring 40s. Not enough northward adventure.
In keeping with my usual Deep Layer Shear/ Instability obsession ---- EC
BUT your upper level cold pool is still on track. Just need it to hit with moisture.
Late on the pace here, aka Sandra Sully.
watching as we progress and loving the time input here by the usual suspects.
well done folks.
has gone from likely ridge , to cut off.
now looking very zonal. IMO.
not enough goodness from the deep dark South.
check back in a couple of weeks.
typically tho season doesn't really start till late July ( residual cold from the Solstice dateline...) so time up our sleeve.
( comfy that I ditched my not so Epic pass fwiw )
The best stays south of the border.
Good for Falls as it funnels the Kiewa and great for Gotham as it ruffles the feather BUT is it cold enough for the Buller?
Agree. That's my thinking.
But whoever snags the first Unicon gets major bragging rights.
Best of the Mid level lapse rates are on the 3rd
my obs and chat should have been in bbq.
Watch those temps on GFS.
Kosciuszko Road (Cooma to Jindy) has a chance of some flurries early Saturday morning.
I certainly reckon it will cold enough for Buller, marginal, but just cold enough for Thursday. Rain obviously to start, but probably won’t realise it come the morning. There’ll be some mix at times, but mostly snow after dawn.
Friday will be decent too, maybe some extra love in that backend.
Very good upper temps. 850mb -temps with 700mb humidity is where the snow is.
A slight upgrade for the Falls Ck. and the Mt.Stirling snow forecast.
If this holds then I will book my gate pass on Thursday or Fri. AM and roll the dice for Falls Creek on Saturday.
Ditto for Mt.Stirling on Sunday.
First post for the season. Been busy figuring out how to get through the season without a shut down with an outbreak . Seems like 3 months worth of work in 3 weeks.
Anyway positive upgrade on ec this morning. Possibly 20cm across the majority of resorts IMO
Obs thread is alive and kicking for this system here: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/1st-4th-july-system.87946/
All forecasts and prediction remain here, as always.
The backend looking pretty good imo
This morning Access-C going for snow above 1700m from ~3am tomorrow. Lowering thereafter.
EC showing a swathe of -3ºC @ 850 temps, in the lee of the MR on 4am Saturday.
There's every chance of snow possible to 800m through the Monaro region at this time IMO.
The Mt. Stirling forecast for 1400 M. is still looking good. i.e. 17 cm by Sat. morning and cold temperatures remaining into Sunday .
No frost this morning so it's going to be interesting if a net gain below 1500m by this time next week eventuates. There are so many layers of various cloud scuding about yesterday and this morning.
An interesting system like the last one.