Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

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  1. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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  2. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Not too shabby
     
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  3. Goon_Squad

    Goon_Squad Hard Yards

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    Right now I'm more worried about your battery life.
     
  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Broader looking cold pool sweeping on 12z.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup.
    Better back end on 12z rendered as well...
     
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  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, looking broadly like 10-15cm Thursday afternoon through Friday after some early rain going on EC
    IMO
     
  8. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great weather for ducks



     
  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Radar forecast days 1-3. Some-thing looks fishy here with cm totals being touted on models.
     
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  10. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As usual we know there will be cold and moisture , just hope they coincide.
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The current snowfall figures for Perisher:


    I’ll go 15-25cm for the MR personally, I still think there can be some decent falls for the region.

    You can also see better figures for Buller in the latest Bureau forecast:
     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    It's the weather that sweeps within the modeled colder pool sweeping the alps that is not being well resolved imo. I will it leave here @ i do think in some areas over the alps will see pukes.
     
  13. Young Angus

    Young Angus Addicted

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    Hahaha
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    :emoji_camel: Upgrades on latest runs

    Thursday Looking good up high, Friday Looking good down low


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking good for 15-25cm for most of the resorts, particularly up high and south with the Thursday falls. IMO.
     
  17. Young Angus

    Young Angus Addicted

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    Y'aaaaaaaaaasssssssss
     
  18. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Definitely looking a bit better across all models this afternoon.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup.
    Like Canuck a bunch
     
  20. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a little sting in the tail, too?
     
  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good evening all and happy June 30 (for the banking and finance guys and gals)

    How are/is the team holding up? I hope all are safe and well with Covid.

    I've been tracking this system for a while and trying to get my membership reset.

    The big stick did well and reset me so now I'm good to go.

    I'll ease into the flow of the thread to not "hickup" the thought process.

    But I'm seeing backend potential.
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Welcome back :thumbs:
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow down to 1100m late-Friday night, Saturday morning for the CT's/OP, IMO.
    Not a lot of moisture left in it though by this stage unfortunately.
     
  24. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks mate.

    Its been a long and tough Autumn but I'm back :)
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    RE: The Mainland Alps. Not sure what others are referring to in terms of improvement. I am not seeing any change at all.
    Thursday looks like about 10-15mm ahead of the switch mid-morning Thursday. 5-10cm accumulation after that.

    Friday arvo only showing 5-8cm on GFS & EC this evening.

    Still looks to me like 10-25cm Thursday mid-morning to Saturday AM IMO.

    EC Friday arvo:
     
  26. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    I’m going Saturday morning to Oberon for the weekend . Hoping for a bit of snow up top of Jenolan or shooters Hill . Will be cold enough but not sure re moisture. Fingers crossed
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw the potential of the trailing H to slingshot the modelled cut-off / cold pool couple of days ago.
    Thoughts where your input was missing to date.
    Been waiting for the NBN to slowly filter thru to the Cen co. ;)
     
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  28. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A week ago, I was balls to the wall for a season starter BUT now it's looking more like 20cm across the lower resorts with a possible 40cm for the main range..

    The low that stalled over the North Island of NZ for the last 4 days ruined our party SO track the NZ stall moving forward.

    Take away the ECL/Tasman Low Blockers and the highs will move. The next trough/ low that picks the gap will dump.

    This wandering cold pool looks to push into northern NSW. As it bombs south, watch it.... it should suck the life out of the trailing high.

    If it does, that's our window.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC Stream function looks a bit messy and a tad undesirable to me.
     
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  30. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey mate, I was also tracking the tripple header waiting for the sling but it bombed.

    I gave it 3 days hoping for an upgrade but the SST didn't have enough to feed it.

    ITS all negative SST in the bight so that's why systems are drying out as they cross Vic.

    We need a proper BRUTE system. LOW in the Bass Straight to feed off the east coast.

    Without the Bight moisture feed, it needs to be a southern ocean BRUTE. Unfortunately.
     
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  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Too much lateral roaring 40s. Not enough northward adventure.
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    In keeping with my usual Deep Layer Shear/ Instability obsession ---- EC
     
  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BUT your upper level cold pool is still on track. Just need it to hit with moisture.
     
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  34. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Late on the pace here, aka Sandra Sully.
    watching as we progress and loving the time input here by the usual suspects.
    well done folks.
    has gone from likely ridge , to cut off.
    now looking very zonal. IMO.
    not enough goodness from the deep dark South.
    check back in a couple of weeks.
    typically tho season doesn't really start till late July ( residual cold from the Solstice dateline...) so time up our sleeve.
    ( comfy that I ditched my not so Epic pass fwiw ;) )
     
  35. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The best stays south of the border.

    Good for Falls as it funnels the Kiewa and great for Gotham as it ruffles the feather BUT is it cold enough for the Buller?
     
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  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. That's my thinking.

    But whoever snags the first Unicon gets major bragging rights.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Regular programming. :)
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Best of the Mid level lapse rates are on the 3rd
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    soz.
    my obs and chat should have been in bbq.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watch those temps on GFS.
    Kosciuszko Road (Cooma to Jindy) has a chance of some flurries early Saturday morning.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I certainly reckon it will cold enough for Buller, marginal, but just cold enough for Thursday. Rain obviously to start, but probably won’t realise it come the morning. There’ll be some mix at times, but mostly snow after dawn.



    Friday will be decent too, maybe some extra love in that backend.
     
  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Very good upper temps. 850mb -temps with 700mb humidity is where the snow is.


     
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  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    #343 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  44. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    First post for the season. Been busy figuring out how to get through the season without a shut down with an outbreak . Seems like 3 months worth of work in 3 weeks.

    Anyway positive upgrade on ec this morning. Possibly 20cm across the majority of resorts IMO
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This morning Access-C going for snow above 1700m from ~3am tomorrow. Lowering thereafter.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC showing a swathe of -3ºC @ 850 temps, in the lee of the MR on 4am Saturday.
    There's every chance of snow possible to 800m through the Monaro region at this time IMO.
     
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  49. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  50. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    No frost this morning so it's going to be interesting if a net gain below 1500m by this time next week eventuates. There are so many layers of various cloud scuding about yesterday and this morning.

    An interesting system like the last one.
     
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