Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sawmill Settlement, Vic should see some sago/flakes Friday night ~10pm ish IMO.
    As too should places like top of Mount Tassie (@doogasnow ), Harrietville etc.
     
  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Very cold air within the embedded troughs was showing well defined on airmass sat-pic




     
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  3. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Yes looks very cold indeed . The backend is beginning to look potent . Latest gfs showing snow for the Oberon plateau Saturday morning
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I recon BOM 4 day is a Little more excited too. It could be bigger, colder, lower pressure but the duration at 72 hrs approx is decent.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    So snow down to about 7-750m asl at its coldest? Mt tassie sits at 750m asl
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potential for falls down to 600-700m on Friday evening IMO.
     
  7. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ooo nice ill be at 600m friday night
     
  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS looks interesting with the little upper level embedd low over the Alps.

    [​IMG]
     
    #358 7wombathead, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s GFS?
     
  10. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Latest gfs has a wicked backend .
    Early Saturday looks like decent snow
     
  11. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    This sounds a bit more exciting...
     
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  12. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict snow will be epic on Saturday as I will have left town!
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just saying not implying.

    Geo5 was getting quite bullish on Friday.

    Selection_003.png
     
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  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It was meant to be GFS. Doh. Fixed. Thanks.
     
  15. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Windy EC going for 10-20 cents next 5 days.

     
  16. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Fair bit of fudge factor in that colour scale being exponential
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    12z run....will get better
     
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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    See'in close to 30cm perisher on the ec new version. And that maybe shy.
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller to do a foot of snow over the next few days per GFS 00z, being the best of the resorts.


    I'm thinking about 20-30cm for the Alps per the latest modelling and the way I think it will fall.
     
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  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  21. Rock Hopper

    Rock Hopper First Runs

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    Stay on topic ... PLEASE
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    700hpa hook favours the MR in my thoughts...
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW Bom dropping the hammer.
    Two days of 900m asl.
    Two days of 30mm precip chances.

    Upswing... Yew
     
  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are now on board for some proper snow at Mt. Buller / Mt. Stirling . I like it !

    Thursday 2 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning. Winds northerly 60 to 75 km/h turning west to northwesterly 40 to 50 km/h early in the morning then decreasing to 30 to 40 km/h in the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Friday 3 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, with possible hail. Winds westerly 30 to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then turning south to southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]

    Saturday 4 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Possible hail in the morning. Winds southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h increasing to 35 to 45 km/h during the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]
     
  25. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Much more to come Saturday as well, IMO. I think we will have a decent base on the MR buy early next week.

    By Golly Unicorns I think we are on for a start.
     
  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom going for snow to 800m for Friday in west and south gippsland, hopefully they lower that down to 6-700m and the mt tassie side of the strezleckis might get a dusting.

    for my area max of 8c Friday and 7c Saturday!
    And with a low of 3c overnight Friday we could see some sleety stuff overnight imo
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow falling to 750m was where I was going with my post this morning @doogasnow IMO.
    1-4am Saturday is the sweet spot for you.

    Non settling Wintery mix stuff below that will be a stretch as it's all undercooked below DGZ.
     
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  29. teleroo

    teleroo Lincoln Turns at the Pass Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for wide spread snow falls early Saturday morning, with a breezy sub-zero start to the day across +1000m asl terrain. Not much moisture in their forecast for this time period though.

     
  30. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    OHHHHH SNAP now things are getting interesting...froth starting to gather...
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Cheers pow.:thumbs:
    I don’t think mt tassie has had a fall yet this winter. Be good if it got a dusting out of this system.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C showing temps ok for snow to 1700m with the main frontal band.
    No rain at all for Hotham/Falls above 1700m is looking a really possibly tomorrow AM. If that happens it'll be the heaviest snowfall of the date range IMO.

    Frontal band due through the Vic Alps circa 1/2am IMO.
    TT's and Cape are there on EC for thundersnow.
     
  33. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tas going to get good cold air with snow to 500m Friday
     
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  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pft, that’s any day ending in ‘y’

     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good timing... 1-4am is the DJ prime time.
    I'm all about the dark.
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling

    Ms.Bunn's computer modelling is looking at 20 cm + plus at Ye olde Mountaine Stirling. I am planning a ski day there on Sunday just based on this ;-P
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 ft storm... come on... you know you want to...
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah it's not.
    Foot with mayo at the end.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gunna be windy.... Leeside... Loading.
    Reckon the area around equestrian centre may be so so. Saturday morning
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ................ waiting for confirmation ................... still no graziers warning for SW Slopes/Alpine Area ......... and we all know that until that happens ................ then its mere speculation. :)
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slingshot baked bean.
     
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Dare I say we have a season starter coming ?

    MOD EDIT: Edited to include quoted text, rather than a string of formatted text.
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    It is a cold kidney bean spinning around , but most welcome.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    MOD NOTE: It'd be great if users can use the QUOTE imbed (plus symbol in the post edit bar) to cut/paste sourced material or even just link (chain symbol) to it.
    Posting formatted text is like vomiting spam.
     
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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks like a pocket of 531 thickness pushing through gippsland Friday night. Like it
     
  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Vicco warning ............... they hand them out like confetti , NSW warning is the gold standard and I live on the border. However its a step in the right direction :)
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So offshore for the MR.
    That hook is cute as. Might delete later.
     
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  50. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off Topic: Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you mods.