Predictions 1st-4th July: Season Starter?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.

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  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best ignore ever
     
  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    sorry Guv. I must do better.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at GFS, that hail call for Coastal parts of Southern NSW still a solid call for Saturday 5-10am @stormkite2000
    Bit of marine instability and a left mover will see to it.
     
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  4. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Is that the same time snow is expected over the central tablelands and op ?
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll tell family.
    I'll be in Jindy
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Think ‘Melbourne winter’ hail, not Ipswich bundy coolers.
    Ball bearings, not tennis balls.
     
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  7. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Best Mod Comment....like forever....spew material indeed.
     
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  8. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ....................and there she blows
    A little windy here at the high perch ,nothing fantastic though ,seems like its all higher up. Wind SW at 18kmh ,less than 1mm in the jar and 4c ,still too warm.
     
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  9. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    YESSSSSS C'MONNNNNNNNNN
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do like your use of the quote imbed.
    I predict I will be a reformed ctrl c / ctrl v junkie
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mod edit. ;)
     
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  12. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    With Thredbo top station just having hit 0, it would be great if this comes off - BOM predicting another 7-10mm today, and 15-30mm tomorrow:

     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still got that 10-25cm vibe from me (today through Saturday AM).

    It just would've been helpful to see the frontal band come through as snow/snot.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I noticed BoM increased precip today to 20-40mm for Thredbo.
     
  15. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    That blob in the Bight looks loaded and should hit late tonight
     
  16. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My obs to date...

    Moonbah on the Lee side at 1100 ASL. Mixed broken cloud.

    Winds came through solid circa 2:00 am. At 7 am it was 7 degrees with 7 mm in the pot. Need more.



    Raining at Jindy. Sleeting at the park entry and wet snow by Sponars where it’s starting to stick. Mountain creeks flowing. A little on the road past Smiggin coming into PV.



    Right now in the PV car park it’s straight up proper snow.....still heavy snow but starting to fill the gaps. Recovery mode in progress!




    EDIT: Sorry mods.. Wrong thread. Care to relocate?
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Hotham forecast.



     
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  18. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not a tech head ,I just copy/paste and that is about the limit of my understanding.
     
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  19. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    Unfortunately most of today’s moisture was early AM and the clear kind.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should be ~10-15cm (mostly tomorrow night) and that’ll be about it for this one folks, IMO.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM NSW going for 15-40mm Friday for Thredbo
    The upswing continues.
    Effing cold as well.
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jindabyne forecast has
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    I predict that either POW or Donzah will be close to correct.

    My heart says Donzah. My head says POW
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm just reading what the BOM has posted...
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friyay:
     
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  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Alot of this system is still to come though.
     
  27. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ch7 news just said we will get another 20 - 30cm

    :eek:

    LOL

    I like their optimism!
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I'll take a dose of optimistic :thumbs: over pessimist any day of the week.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM WATL Forecast siding with OCF for tomorrow.

    Comparatively, BoM NSW’s discourse on Perisher/Thredbo seems overly bullish.
     
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Is mt Dandenong a chance for a flurry tomorrow night? There max is only 5c Tommoz
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hail, yes.
    Snow, no.
    The problem with Mt D is it's too bayside/coastal for many 'marginal' snowfalls. Gotta be a classic low-level cold outbreak to see anything meaningful for Mount D action.
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Donna Buang looks the goods Friday night. Might head up Saturday morning..... with the masses.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Happy Birthday BTW.. Belated
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO those using Kosci road tomorrow night Cooma-Jindy should use extra caution it will be a skating rink by night fall.
    Freeze level ~900m.
    Will be unforgiving for black ice.
     
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  35. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Temp just reached the 00 on its way down at the high perch , not much moisture about right now though,wind SW at 22kmh
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    High perch ~1200m from memory @Kelpieboy ?
     
  37. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    954 masl
     
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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    We will know by tonight if that parcel of weather being discussed earlier in the thread is resolved correctly by ec.

    Want over 2. the parcel anom in the bean is about 3.2 on the plot.


     
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  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Good opportunity see how 18z does with forecast verification.





     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that index unit in dBZs or mm @stormkite2000 ?
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    . BOM and Ms. Bunn have upgraded the forecast for Falls Ck. and Mt.
    Stirling to 20 cms , POWDER by Sat. afternoon.. BOM used the term "Powdery ".
     
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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Dbz i'M sure you already know as values increase so does the intensity of the rainfall. As a rule of thumb value's of 20dbz is @ the point at which light rain begins.

    edited for the benefit of others.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's what EC & AXS-C (respectively) has to say for precip over the next 24 hours:
    Both in agreement that Vic Alps should be the winners tonight.


     
  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks everyone :) , See you on Monday with photos for the Observations pages and XC ski trip reports.
     
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  45. Davo63

    Davo63 Hard Yards

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    I'm predicting that if there's not a further 10-15 cm at lake mountain today/tonight, I'll have wasted the car booking fee I've paid for tomorrow! Given the cam shows at least a couple of cm overnight, just the 10 cm more would be enough.Those precip maps suggest 15+ likely, so here's hoping... It looks like staying cold enough won't be a problem, so that westerly direction which can at times bring drizzle/rain should stay snow.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO ~15cm will be the mean snowfall for the 5 Victorian resorts over the next 24.
    It's the wetter, marginal conditions tomorrow PM that would be the concern for Lake Mountain IMO.
     
  47. Davo63

    Davo63 Hard Yards

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    Be on the way home tomorrow pm - really only need 2-3 hours to make it a decent outing (only 1.5 or so hrs drive). So long as today/tonight behave, we'll be OK... It's why I didn't book Sunday - which will surely be wet...
     
  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    cheers for that .
    showed me a few more bells n whistles there that I wasn't onto.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'll never use the WZ plots again. ;)
     
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