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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2020.
Best ignore ever
sorry Guv. I must do better.
Looking at GFS, that hail call for Coastal parts of Southern NSW still a solid call for Saturday 5-10am @stormkite2000
Bit of marine instability and a left mover will see to it.
Is that the same time snow is expected over the central tablelands and op ?
I'll tell family.
I'll be in Jindy
Think ‘Melbourne winter’ hail, not Ipswich bundy coolers.
Ball bearings, not tennis balls.
Best Mod Comment....like forever....spew material indeed.
....................and there she blows
A little windy here at the high perch ,nothing fantastic though ,seems like its all higher up. Wind SW at 18kmh ,less than 1mm in the jar and 4c ,still too warm.
Do like your use of the quote imbed.
I predict I will be a reformed ctrl c / ctrl v junkie
With Thredbo top station just having hit 0, it would be great if this comes off - BOM predicting another 7-10mm today, and 15-30mm tomorrow:
Still got that 10-25cm vibe from me (today through Saturday AM).
It just would've been helpful to see the frontal band come through as snow/snot.
I noticed BoM increased precip today to 20-40mm for Thredbo.
That blob in the Bight looks loaded and should hit late tonight
My obs to date...
Moonbah on the Lee side at 1100 ASL. Mixed broken cloud.
Winds came through solid circa 2:00 am. At 7 am it was 7 degrees with 7 mm in the pot. Need more.
Raining at Jindy. Sleeting at the park entry and wet snow by Sponars where it’s starting to stick. Mountain creeks flowing. A little on the road past Smiggin coming into PV.
Right now in the PV car park it’s straight up proper snow.....still heavy snow but starting to fill the gaps. Recovery mode in progress!
EDIT: Sorry mods.. Wrong thread. Care to relocate?
Not a tech head ,I just copy/paste and that is about the limit of my understanding.
Unfortunately most of today’s moisture was early AM and the clear kind.
Should be ~10-15cm (mostly tomorrow night) and that’ll be about it for this one folks, IMO.
BOM NSW going for 15-40mm Friday for Thredbo
The upswing continues.
Effing cold as well.
Jindabyne forecast has
I predict that either POW or Donzah will be close to correct.
My heart says Donzah. My head says POW
I'm just reading what the BOM has posted...
Alot of this system is still to come though.
Ch7 news just said we will get another 20 - 30cm
I like their optimism!
I'll take a dose of optimistic over pessimist any day of the week.
BoM WATL Forecast siding with OCF for tomorrow.
Comparatively, BoM NSW’s discourse on Perisher/Thredbo seems overly bullish.
Is mt Dandenong a chance for a flurry tomorrow night? There max is only 5c Tommoz
The problem with Mt D is it's too bayside/coastal for many 'marginal' snowfalls. Gotta be a classic low-level cold outbreak to see anything meaningful for Mount D action.
Donna Buang looks the goods Friday night. Might head up Saturday morning..... with the masses.
Happy Birthday BTW.. Belated
IMO those using Kosci road tomorrow night Cooma-Jindy should use extra caution it will be a skating rink by night fall.
Freeze level ~900m.
Will be unforgiving for black ice.
Temp just reached the 00 on its way down at the high perch , not much moisture about right now though,wind SW at 22kmh
High perch ~1200m from memory @Kelpieboy ?
We will know by tonight if that parcel of weather being discussed earlier in the thread is resolved correctly by ec.
Want over 2. the parcel anom in the bean is about 3.2 on the plot.
Good opportunity see how 18z does with forecast verification.
Is that index unit in dBZs or mm @stormkite2000 ?
. BOM and Ms. Bunn have upgraded the forecast for Falls Ck. and Mt.
Stirling to 20 cms , POWDER by Sat. afternoon.. BOM used the term "Powdery ".
Dbz i'M sure you already know as values increase so does the intensity of the rainfall. As a rule of thumb value's of 20dbz is @ the point at which light rain begins.
edited for the benefit of others.
Here's what EC & AXS-C (respectively) has to say for precip over the next 24 hours:
Both in agreement that Vic Alps should be the winners tonight.
Thanks everyone , See you on Monday with photos for the Observations pages and XC ski trip reports.
I'm predicting that if there's not a further 10-15 cm at lake mountain today/tonight, I'll have wasted the car booking fee I've paid for tomorrow! Given the cam shows at least a couple of cm overnight, just the 10 cm more would be enough.Those precip maps suggest 15+ likely, so here's hoping... It looks like staying cold enough won't be a problem, so that westerly direction which can at times bring drizzle/rain should stay snow.
IMO ~15cm will be the mean snowfall for the 5 Victorian resorts over the next 24.
It's the wetter, marginal conditions tomorrow PM that would be the concern for Lake Mountain IMO.
Be on the way home tomorrow pm - really only need 2-3 hours to make it a decent outing (only 1.5 or so hrs drive). So long as today/tonight behave, we'll be OK... It's why I didn't book Sunday - which will surely be wet...
Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria
Did you know "speckled" cloud on the satellite pic indicates cold, unstable, showery weather? Plenty of that in #Victoria today thanks to a cold front. Snow above ≈900m, with 10-20cm possible. Chance of hail & thunder, mainly near the coast. http://ow.ly/E3TG50AoBeQ #VicWeather
cheers for that .
showed me a few more bells n whistles there that I wasn't onto.
You'll never use the WZ plots again.