Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

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POW Hungry

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There's enough in this date range for some reasonable confidence of long-wave influence over the SE region IMO.
Ensembles siding with a classic winter set-up, in a flip to the recent few weeks of repetitious cut-off systems.
Bring on the SW flow.

EC Ensembles:
Screen Shot 2021-06-20 at 9.41.21 pm.png


Big nodal support on EC determs:
1624223518484.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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So ideally you’d want something to come in it’s shadow so it doesn’t run into the high pressure.
This clearing also means it should peak a bit later which is an ideal set up for us?
Run the loop on the global scale.
You'll see the polar long waves sloshing about, just blur your eyes and you'll see the lead up progression.
 

BlueHue

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I predict lots of fizzing model runs over the next ten days until a late surge in models brings it on strong for an eventual all resorts 50cm odd at the end or even slightly after the current date range.
 

Craig B

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Unfortunately I just can't see this happening right now as I've discussed in private with POW.

I've outlined the coming couple of weeks outlook in detail here..


Besides maybe a cut-off burst of cold air at this stage it's not looking favourable at all for snow generation IMO with that high anomaly stretching from New Zealand over to Victoria into the start of July.

EC weekly anom charts..

Mon 28th to 5th July
1624340139239.png
 

Jellybeans

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Unfortunately I just can't see this happening right now as I've discussed in private with POW.

I've outlined the coming couple of weeks outlook in detail here..


Besides maybe a cut-off burst of cold air at this stage it's not looking favourable at all for snow generation IMO with that high anomaly stretching from New Zealand over to Victoria into the start of July.

EC weekly anom charts..

Mon 28th to 5th July
1624340139239.png
I mean I wouldn’t cast a strong opinion on this system based on EC46.

But yes, the determ models do point towards two WA peaking fronts and it missing SE Australia.

The -IOD and associated NW cloud bands also will continue to make this very messy.
 
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Jasper Schwarz

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GFS Deterministic picking up the system on the 18z run. Got a big wack of proper pre-frontal though......
Does have some blue over the mountains which is a welcome change from all the red and green of the last few runs.
1624361842553.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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EC ensembles still supporting the front through the SE on the 2nd and 3rd July. With the potential for ECL/Tasman low formation on the backside of the date range.

We’re not seeing much in the way of deterministic support as yet.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Yeah, not looking great, at all.
Absolutely, nil determ support (or LR alignment) at all.

Ensembles looking nothing like they did 3-4 days ago. Low confidence in this one at the moment.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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EC is now seeing something XC skiable for Sat. July 3rd.

Even Mt.Buffalo looks OK on this run of forecasting and modelling.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Yeah, there's some cartwheeling on the axis of that low, as it stands.
Hypothetically, that would limit the ridging from the West, if it hangs in there.

Risk of a clipper, as the AAO heads North, otherwise...
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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EC still likes Mt. Buffalo and Falls Ck.on July 3rd. Mt. Buffalo is a great place to Nordic ski for free if it has 15 cms + of snow.
 
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