Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

[POW Hungry]

There's enough in this date range for some reasonable confidence of long-wave influence over the SE region IMO.
Ensembles siding with a classic winter set-up, in a flip to the recent few weeks of repetitious cut-off systems.
Bring on the SW flow.

EC Ensembles:

Big nodal support on EC determs:

 

[POW Hungry]

EC Ensembles spread highlighting the wave support.

 

[Kletterer]

Some of us are already skiing . Perhaps the Title would be more accurate as Season Booster or similar .

 

[POW Hungry]

Buller, Baw Baw, Lake Mountain, lest we forget.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

EC and CMC have plenty of cold air, but this looks like a WA peaker no?
Can someone smarter than me provide some insight? Trying to get my terminology right

 

[POW Hungry]

EC and CMC have plenty of cold air, but this looks like a WA peaker no?
Can someone smarter than me provide some insight? Trying to get my terminology right

This is not in the date range, this is the pre-cursor.
EC deterministic modelling only out to the 30th.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

This is not in the date range, this is the pre-cursor.
EC deterministic modelling only out to the 30th.

That would help hey?
I just saw all the cold air and made a silly assumption.
Cheers for that!

 

[Jellybeans]

That would help hey?
I just saw all the cold air and made a silly assumption.
Cheers for that!

Yeah it’s a question of whether something will come back over or leap frog over that node.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

Yeah it’s a question of whether something will come back over or leap frog over that node.

So ideally you’d want something to come in it’s shadow so it doesn’t run into the high pressure.
This clearing also means it should peak a bit later which is an ideal set up for us?

 

[POW Hungry]

So ideally you’d want something to come in it’s shadow so it doesn’t run into the high pressure.
This clearing also means it should peak a bit later which is an ideal set up for us?

Run the loop on the global scale.
You'll see the polar long waves sloshing about, just blur your eyes and you'll see the lead up progression.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Buller, Baw Baw, Lake Mountain

Mt. Stirling and Mt. Buffalo are in that category too.

 

[CarveMan]

classic winter set-up

Thank. fcuk.

 

[Jellybeans]

EPS 00z shows that it is workable:

 

[Kletterer]

EC 00Z Ensemble board beginning to light up.
Perisher Village

 

[DidSurfNowSki]

Some of us are already skiing . Perhaps the Title would be more accurate as Season Booster or similar .

The Mexican Wave ?

 

[Kletterer]

The Mexican Wave ?

Stay On Topic

 

[BlueHue]

I predict lots of fizzing model runs over the next ten days until a late surge in models brings it on strong for an eventual all resorts 50cm odd at the end or even slightly after the current date range.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC ensembles showing the main event:

 

[Craig B]

Unfortunately I just can't see this happening right now as I've discussed in private with POW.

I've outlined the coming couple of weeks outlook in detail here..

O Roaring Forties, Where Art Thou? | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

Besides maybe a cut-off burst of cold air at this stage it's not looking favourable at all for snow generation IMO with that high anomaly stretching from New Zealand over to Victoria into the start of July.

EC weekly anom charts..

Mon 28th to 5th July

 

[Jellybeans]

Unfortunately I just can't see this happening right now as I've discussed in private with POW.

I've outlined the coming couple of weeks outlook in detail here..

O Roaring Forties, Where Art Thou? | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

Besides maybe a cut-off burst of cold air at this stage it's not looking favourable at all for snow generation IMO with that high anomaly stretching from New Zealand over to Victoria into the start of July.

EC weekly anom charts..

Mon 28th to 5th July

I mean I wouldn’t cast a strong opinion on this system based on EC46.

But yes, the determ models do point towards two WA peaking fronts and it missing SE Australia.

The -IOD and associated NW cloud bands also will continue to make this very messy.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

GFS Deterministic picking up the system on the 18z run. Got a big wack of proper pre-frontal though......
Does have some blue over the mountains which is a welcome change from all the red and green of the last few runs.

 

[Donza]

EC has put a fork in this on the Deterministic charts.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC ensembles still supporting the front through the SE on the 2nd and 3rd July. With the potential for ECL/Tasman low formation on the backside of the date range.

We’re not seeing much in the way of deterministic support as yet.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC has put a fork in this on the Deterministic charts.

At 240 hours…

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

EC is showing nothing snow like for July 2nd. There may be a few flakes of snow up high above 1600 M. on July 4th and 5th. We need to see what it all looks like in seven days.

 

[BlueHue]

EC is showing nothing snow like for July 2nd. There may be a few flakes of snow up high above 1600 M. on July 4th and 5th. We need to see what it all looks like in seven days.

I'm with you, still a week of fizz to go. Sherbert anyone?

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

EC ensembles still supporting the front through the SE on the 2nd and 3rd July. With the potential for ECL/Tasman low formation on the backside of the date range.

We’re not seeing much in the way of deterministic support as yet.

What do you reckon about them apples?

 

[POW Hungry]

Yeah, not looking great, at all.
Absolutely, nil determ support (or LR alignment) at all.

Ensembles looking nothing like they did 3-4 days ago. Low confidence in this one at the moment.

 

[bas1]

Ec and the Canuck starting to look interesting on this mornings run for 3/7. Access g also interested for same day . Maybe something brewing.

 

[Fast Eddie]

Concur. They are all thinking about something. Needs more time but.

 

[Undies]

What do you reckon about them apples?

Them pineapples.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Falls Creek snow forecast by Meteorologist Jane Bunn

Weather and snow report for Falls Creek, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.

www.janebunn.net

EC is now seeing something XC skiable for Sat. July 3rd.

Mt Stirling snow forecast by Meteorologist Jane Bunn

Weather and snow report for Mt Stirling, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.

www.janebunn.net

Even Mt.Buffalo looks OK on this run of forecasting and modelling.

 

[Kletterer]

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking better on EC this morning.
Need some trend and further alignment now.

 

[rocketboy]

Looking better on EC this morning.
Need some trend and further alignment now.

statisically we are clearly due for a snow event.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

AAO looking like its gonna take a nice little dip for just before this period, before a Very sharp rise again..

 

[Kletterer]

Temps through various layers look encouraging and reasonably well stacked atm. -32 at 500 hPa.

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS 00z & 12z.
Both on a positive trend today.

 

[iagreewithhim]

statisically we are clearly due for a snow event.

"Statistically" and "Due" together in any context create an oxymoron.

 

[Craig B]

GFS 00z & 12z.
Both on a positive trend today.

Tis but a glancing blow.. Not ideal for any significant dump.

 

[POW Hungry]

Tis but a glancing blow.. Not ideal for any significant dump.

Might be nothing, but still trending.

 

[POW Hungry]

Some more alignment for a neutral AAO too. I expect some slight upgrades.

 

[Donza]

Some more alignment for a neutral AAO too. I expect some slight upgrades.

NCEP ensembles are trending.

 

[POW Hungry]

NCEP ensembles are trending.

Si si

 

[POW Hungry]

EC Determs Trending.

 

[Donza]

Looks like a stop and prop on EC.
Decent shape on the trailing high.

 

[POW Hungry]

Yeah, there's some cartwheeling on the axis of that low, as it stands.
Hypothetically, that would limit the ridging from the West, if it hangs in there.

Risk of a clipper, as the AAO heads North, otherwise...

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Mt Buffalo

Weather and snow report for Mt Buffalo, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.

www.janebunn.net

EC still likes Mt. Buffalo and Falls Ck.on July 3rd. Mt. Buffalo is a great place to Nordic ski for free if it has 15 cms + of snow.

Falls Creek snow forecast by Meteorologist Jane Bunn

Weather and snow report for Falls Creek, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.

www.janebunn.net

Mt Stirling snow forecast by Meteorologist Jane Bunn

Weather and snow report for Mt Stirling, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.

www.janebunn.net

 

[big_onion]

Pretty solid alignment between EC, GFS and CMC which is interesting considering this system wasn't really showing up on any of their models a few runs ago

GFS showing some very good low level totals for Tas and Vic in particular

 

[Kletterer]

A good number of EC Ensemble members with sub 5400 mtr 500hPa levels.