Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

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jonathanc

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A good number of EC Ensemble members with sub 5400 mtr 500hPa levels.
1624529282761.png
These visualisations of the ensembles are great, please keep posting them
 

Jellybeans

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Pretty solid alignment between EC, GFS and CMC which is interesting considering this system wasn't really showing up on any of their models a few runs ago
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_9.png
gfs_z500_mslp_aus_33.png
gem_z500_mslp_aus_34.png

GFS showing some very good low level totals for Tas and Vic in particular
gfs_asnow_aus_37.png
Yeah some systems have a tendency to show up in the long term, vanish for a few days, and then suddenly come back.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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EC still likes the look of it all some 7 days out...
I will be up that way with my quiver of boots and skis from 2-7 th July and some proper snow at Mt. Buffalo/Falls/ Dinner Plain/ Mt. Stirling would be excellent.
We are 7 days out from the snow fall that is predicted to possibly
start the ski season in Vic. .
Today the weather forecasting modelling looks like a trend
is forming and that it could go from what is now zero
almost to hero .
http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
 
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7wombathead

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Maybe the date range need to adjusted to the 1st July.

The classic Aussie snail snow front pattern. The head comes first and the shell behind it.

Then GFS dogs it again.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_25.png
 
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Donza

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I’m not really seeing too much
Then again I don’t have the high res
The upper level low looks pretty strong. Cutoff core of -33 or so.
MSLP charts look a bit meh past the 3rd. The high slips underneath and cradles the low.
Strong on the 2nd.
Swings and roundabouts.

Thats pretty much position perfect for Potential.
ececececec.png
 

Kletterer

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EC has Good Deep Layer Shear and Total Totals on the Saturday for both States. Pressure gradients could do with a nudge though. Steady as she goes.
 

doogasnow

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Hopefully the system can hang on and still become more of a traditional sw front. Let it ride a few more days and hopefully it settles
 
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bas1

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The upper level low looks pretty strong. Cutoff core of -33 or so.
MSLP charts look a bit meh past the 3rd. The high slips underneath and cradles the low.
Strong on the 2nd.
Swings and roundabouts.

Thats pretty much position perfect for Potential.
ececececec.png
Yes can definitely see the potential
Fingers crossed
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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If it snows at Mt.Buffalo on July 3rd then everywhere else will get some snow including Lake Mtn. .

EC still likes this system and 10-15 + cms down to 1000 M. looks like the predicted result.


 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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The latest run from WZ is more doom and gloom i.e only 10 cm on July 3rd .The Hope casting pills have worn off.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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The latest EC run is not offering much for Vic. at all. Of course the modelling will leap about each day but this run is shite in terms of a " season starter".
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Another underwhelming run at the modelling for the forecasting and prediction period of July 2-6th,
this morning from the EC.

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 11cm

Mt Hotham: 6cm

Falls Creek: 4cm

Mt Baw Baw: 12cm

Perisher: 6cm

Thredbo: 8cm

Charlotte Pass: 11cm

Selwyn: 5cm

Lake Mountain: 10cm

Mt Stirling: 10cm

Ben Lomond: 1cm

Mt Mawson: 9cm

What about the low pressure system that is mooted to bring some snow flakes on Friday July 9th and Sat. July 10th?.

These low pressure systems keep appearing on weekends and not snowing enough, if at all. Is the Grand Poobah in the sky p*ss*ng in our pockets?
 

Snowmaker7

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Another underwhelming run at the modelling for the forecasting and prediction period of July 2-6th,
this morning from the EC.

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 11cm

Mt Hotham: 6cm

Falls Creek: 4cm

Mt Baw Baw: 12cm

Perisher: 6cm

Thredbo: 8cm

Charlotte Pass: 11cm

Selwyn: 5cm

Lake Mountain: 10cm

Mt Stirling: 10cm

Ben Lomond: 1cm

Mt Mawson: 9cm

What about the low pressure system that is mooted to bring some snow flakes on Friday July 9th and Sat. July 10th?.

These low pressure systems keep appearing on weekends and not snowing enough, if at all. Is the Grand Poobah in the sky p*ss*ng in our pockets?
I think it's best you stop taking every run of EC as gospel.

GFS for the last few days has been throwing up another 30cm plus system for jindy and the east. Honestly wouldn't mind another beast from the east, lower slopes of Thredders need it
 

BlueHue

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I think it's best you stop taking every run of EC as gospel.

GFS for the last few days has been throwing up another 30cm plus system for jindy and the east. Honestly wouldn't mind another beast from the east, lower slopes of Thredders need it
If it started with 10-15cm from a westerly front before cutting off and coming in from the east and then moved on quickly (rather than lingering with mild damp like we've even getting) allowing a rapid return to cold clear snowmaking nights with good freezes, yes, otherwise I'd prefer high pressure and cold nights till the next sw front blows in.

To be honest, i'd prefer a low snowfall clipper as it might signal a shift to a more typical winter westerly weather pattern if if this one does quite hit the mark. NSW at least are in a half decent position for time of the year which will improve with a top up and more snowmaking next week. A move, even if it's a slow process, to winterly westerlies should see NSW with a reasonable base set for peak season. Vic needs a big southern westerly wham bam thank you mam.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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It's done.
What do you mean ? Done and dusted( i.e certain to occur) or stick a fork in it , it is done as in finished, kaput , a non event etc.?

BOM are showing us their prediction for Falls Creek :
Temperatures look cold enough for snow rather than R*** .

Friday 2 July​

Summary.Min -3Max 0Snow showers. Wind easing.Possible rainfall: 8 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

Saturday 3 July​

Summary.Min -7Max -3Snow shower or two.Possible rainfall: 0 to 5 mmChance of any rain: 50%
rain_50.gif

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

Sunday 4 July​

Summary.Min -6Max -2Possible snow shower.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 40%
rain_40.gif

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h tending westerly 25 to 30 km/h during the day.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Not sure what this system is going to produce any more lol

Jane’s ec model suggests a max of 5c up here next Saturday so it’s cold.
Yes, it looks cold but not very snowy. The four day rule must be invoked . By Wed. morning it would be a good time decide what it might actually do. Us Victorians will take anything we can get after hardly any skiing happening in 2020.
However that NW wind is odd. We need a SW wind and plenty of unstable moisture and cold temperatures .
 
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