Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

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Rat trap bindings

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Jul 17, 2017
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Comparing the the previous run, low centres are shifting...

Current.
1624842469133.png


Previous..
1624842484922.png
Meaning... good ?
 

snowgum

A Local
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EC likes it

74468084-1839-46EA-A5EA-60FD67F98904.png
Interesting location for a unlikely Max snowfall - just west of the Cobberas (~1,800m) and a 30km SW of Davies Plain (~ 1750m) Great country but unlikely ski locations for most peeps. No doubt will move to somewhere else next run?
 
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Donza

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EC has a bit of a clipper followed by that slinged cold pool and surface low.
The clipper is shown on the BOM 4 dayer.
 

Claude Cat

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That’s good isn’t it? Nice draw of S/SW air off the west coast of Tas? Makes a nice change from Lows spinning across central/South SA & NSW?
A bombing low there tends to bring the rain shadow from Tasmania into effect. Not so much of an issue for NSW resorts, but no good for Victorian resorts.
EC seems somewhere in the middle of GFS and the Canadians.
 
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Craig B

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A bombing low there tends to bring the rain shadow from Tasmania into effect. Not so much of an issue for NSW resorts, but no good for Victorian resorts.
EC seems somewhere in the middle of GFS and the Canadians.
It's only classified as a 'bombing' low if the central pressure drops 24hPa within a 24hr period. This is just a wandering cut-off.

Models still can't really get a handle of it but.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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EC sees 30 + cms on Sunday at Falls Creek on Sunday July 4th according the latest run through of modelling Vic. snow falls. It will jump about but I could get along with that !.I plan to ski at Falls on July 5th and 6th if possible.
 
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Donza

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I'm far from convinced re prog after the clipper.

Cold pool west of the alps and being slung north on EC12z.
Weak surface low developing in the tasman.

Bit of a SISP and nothingburger for the alps.
 

Donza

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Needs a NSW thread for SISP for next Monday IMO.
EC has -33 at 500hpa squarely over the southern highlands at 4am monday.
Thickness of 5280 along the Illawarra escarpment.
 
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Donza

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Winds actually looking very benign until the formation of the Tasman low, even then looking to have null affect on Aus alpine elevations.

IMO, this is a 15-30cm event for the majors.
A great ‘fill in’ event with the benign winds.
5 to 10cm for Victoria off the intial IMO.
Around the same for NSW.

Anything after that is far from locked in IMO.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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This morning's pass at the modelling from the EC looks OK to me. I will be on Planks on July 5th and 6th and possibly 7th and need some snow to free heel ski on.
BOM seem to see some snow below 1000 M. for VIC and strong winds coming too.


NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 26cm

Mt Hotham: 40cm

Falls Creek: 41cm

Mt Baw Baw: 68cm

Perisher: 25cm

Thredbo: 30cm

Charlotte Pass: 30cm

Selwyn: 15cm

Lake Mountain: 42cm

Mt Stirling: 25cm

Ben Lomond: 2cm

Mt Mawson: 1cm

 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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This morning's run on the EC suggests Snowmageddon at Baw Baw.
:-0
That seems unlikely IMHO because I am not seeing enough unstable moisture and SW winds to drive that moisture in this low pressure system.
I would settle for 20 cms of fresh snow by 6 am on Monday July 5th at Dinner Plain , Mt. Stirling
and esp. at Falls Creek .
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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WZ are going for 10-15-20 cms over 3 days in the Oz Alps rather than what Ms. Bunn is predicting but SISP at 200 m. ASL !! .
 
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