Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

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DidSurfNowSki

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Eg Da Bo

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Kletterer

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The Upstream- Downstream pattern on EC 500hPa to 250 hPa looks a bit fanciful and unusually/ abruptly curved for a sustained period to me. Still needs more updates before we have more clarity re advection imo.
 
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Donza

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Yeah I don't see temps being the issue.
I just don't have much confidence.
Yesterdays ... Cold pool slung.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_7.png


Today.
Cold pool far further south... no surface low.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_6.png
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Vicco will gladly take a 15-25cm clipper with no kinky backdoor action, thanks very much.
You bet long woolly ski your socks we will. 15-20 cms of fresh snow down to 1200 M. will be a gift from above !.
The latest run of modelling from the EC shows more of predicted snow falling at Hotham and far less across Cobungra Gap, over at Falls Creek.
If the main event is predicted to be on Sunday then the four day rule would mean Thursday will bring us a better indication of what might occur.

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 17cm

Mt Hotham: 40cm

Falls Creek: 6cm

Mt Baw Baw: 11cm

Perisher: 8cm

Thredbo: 10cm

Charlotte Pass: 14cm

Selwyn: 5cm

Lake Mountain: 8cm

Mt Stirling: 25cm

Ben Lomond: 1cm

Mt Mawson: 4cm

 

Snowmaker7

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You bet long woolly ski your socks we will. 15-20 cms of fresh snow down to 1200 M. will be a gift from above !.
The latest run of modelling from the EC shows more of predicted snow falling at Hotham and far less across Cobungra Gap, over at Falls Creek.
If the main event is predicted to be on Sunday then the four day rule would mean Thursday will bring us a better indication of what might occur.

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 17cm

Mt Hotham: 40cm

Falls Creek: 6cm

Mt Baw Baw: 11cm

Perisher: 8cm

Thredbo: 10cm

Charlotte Pass: 14cm

Selwyn: 5cm

Lake Mountain: 8cm

Mt Stirling: 25cm

Ben Lomond: 1cm

Mt Mawson: 4cm

I always thought she used EC ie. Just sourced her numbers from yr.no - but they have been varying greatly. Yr.no tonight only says 10-15cm for Hotham for this system. And how in the world would falls Creek receive 6cm while Hotham 40cm. I think there is a problem with her system/her manual adjustment of her forecasts. You are definitely better off sourcing your forecasts directly from yr.no imo

Definitely a real ridge out trend on tonight's run. As it stands 15-25cm for all the majors still. I will take that
 
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POW Hungry

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With the way that embedded low beats on NW Tas, the jam in the doughnut is bound for Cradle Mountain...
Still seeing the divergence between EC & GFS RE: that little embedded number.
1624969857702.png
 

Donza

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Actually looking at the position of the low in bass strait.
There is some cause for hope for some very localised heavier fall rates.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Definitely a real ridge out trend on tonight's run. As it stands 15-25cm for all the majors still. I will take that
Yes, it is ridging out but even 15 cms at the major ski resorts of Vic. of dry snow is a win win for Vic . skiing.
BOM seem to see a gradual accumulation of total snow falls with strong winds over a period of days at Falls Creek .There is not that much moisture in this system, it is just plain COLD.
There is nothing much to XC ski on at The Major Vic. locations. With that wind the groomer staff at Falls , Hotham etc. will have to do some rearranging of wind driven snow drifts to fill in gaps on the terrain.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Ms. Bunn has calmed down and now predicts 10 cm at the Major ski locations in Vic..
 
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Donza

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So from 60cm to 10cm, that's why when forecasting such a volatile system you don't go all in on the totals..
Re Jane ..No model ever ever said 60cm...
I've got no idea where that forecast come from.
A two foot storm is 48 hrs plus duration. Multiple embedded troughs...or
A easterly system... just pushing in .
 

Guthega Girl

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Which is still a major win in Vic - we’ve barely had a 20cm ‘event’ since the 2 bigger April / early May gigs?

Sorry this sounds more like past-Obs. In June, rain and snow have largely counterbalanced on all but the highest areas of Falls and Hotham. So I’ll take 20 thanks.
take 20 any day, the last time I remember a proper proper low dump was July 19.. tracks nice and heavy cold rain across bayside and then bang.. I am no weather nerd at all but look at predications for Elsternwick for the next few days and if its 10/11 and good amount of rain that bodes well (happy for experts to come in give the 'real reason' this happens)


wikcv.PNG
 
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Chowder11

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Some rain Friday, switching to snow from ~6/7pm Friday.
FL lowering to 1200m Saturday, with snow down to 900m in Vic.
FL to 1500m Sunday with snow possible above 1100m in Vic.
Ok so apart from early Friday the FLs look pretty decent for snow to base lift level
 

Donza

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I don't see a lot of SW flow for Buller ...tbh. Not till 7am Sunday.

I'm actually keen on the NSW resorts.
This has NW snow all over it.
EC points the finger at the MR.
Looking better IMO.
 
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