Upgrade from BOM of precipitation in Adelaide so I'm hopeful it translates to generally more rather than less moisture for the system further east.
Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter
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Peaks South of Adelaide/Mount Gambier.
Everything East of that is on the 'down stroke', hence @Donzah pointing NW'ly flow through the Alpine.
Still wild divergence on moisture eh, can't wait to see play out.EC 00Z 24 hour accum precip to Saturday eve 7pm (all of which is cold enough for major resorts).
It’s going to dump as I will be locked in Sydney
I think thats on the low side ..moisture wise.
I feel AXS-C will pump up the tyres a bit in a couple of days.
Still showing snow possible above an isolated region of 700m ASL in NSW/ACT Sunday night, Monday AM - IF there was any moisture left.Vic bom going for snow to 700m on Saturday for southern vicCold but lacks moisture.
10-15 at best Vic IMO. Snowmaking should be full on though.
I have SDS!.
I will see the snow cameras on Saturday or Sunday morning and possibly take the rock hoppers and visit Dinner Plain and Falls Creek on Monday and Tuesday.
According to the EC it is not looking like it is going to snow much according to the latest modelling run.
:-(
NEXT 7 DAYS
Mt Buller: 10cm
Mt Hotham: 9cm
Falls Creek: 5cm
Mt Baw Baw: 5cm
Perisher: 6cm
Thredbo: 8cm
Charlotte Pass: 12cm
Selwyn: 3cm
Lake Mountain: 8cm
Mt Stirling: 12cm
Ben Lomond: 9cm
Mt Mawson: 3cm
Snow Forecast Summary
Jane Bunn's analysis on what to expect in the Australian snow resorts. Snow Forecast | Snow Report | Updated twice daily. Mt Buller, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Perisher, Thredbo, Charlotte Pass, Selwyn, Mt Baw Baw, Lake Mountain, Mt Stirling, Mt Mawson, Ben Lomond. Victorian, New South Waleswww.janebunn.net
The EC is now seeing some more snow on July 10th at Hotham . What do the brains trust make of that ?
IMO looks like a 20-25 cent event for Victorian resorts.
Yeah looks better this morning.
EC is showing 20-30cm for Falls, Hotham and NSW.
Dribs and drabs over 3 days though? Would allow for more windblown accum than if all in one storm, or am I too much a glass half full guy
A glass half full is marketing spin. A glass half empty is economic reality.Dribs and drabs over 3 days though? Would allow for more windblown accum than if all in one storm, or am I too much a glass half full guy
GFS 18z looking much betterer.
But I am still siding with 15-25cm IMO.
Great graphic (moving), action looks small on Monday, virtually dead by Tuesday. Oh for Saturday and Sunday to intensify - while it’s really cold!
Keen snowmakers should do well the following week - even in mild Vic! Establishing a base across a much larger % of piste? See some blue-run action at last?
I tend to find that "Vicco systems", just mean less difference between Victorian and NSW resorts. Unless it's a Baw Baw special.
I expect that NSW resorts will be 5-10cm more than Victorian resorts for this one.
IMO
Yeah for me I can't see NSW getting as much moisture so expect them to come in a bit under Vic.
It’s all relative really.
Here at Buller 5cm would make a difference.
Perisher on the other hand has well over half of the resort open. 5cm won’t make much a difference.Which vic resorts will get to 50 cent ??
I only get get out of bed for 50cm plus ... 100cm plus and it’s party time... 2mt Peter seems like a distant memory..
argh.. why was my first skiing experience in 1990
Time for an obs thread? Looking damp low down at Hotham at the mo, with that skerrick of a base on exposed locations disappearing
I disagree.
Nsw always does well from these higher latitude lows.
Nice norwest downslope moisture.
Especially Perisher.
Looking more complex on the 4-dayer now.
Satdee has my attention.
It ducks and weaves through Bass Strait so impressively. Kinda odd.
It has a serious wobble.
If it could just hang in there north for 8 more hours it would be really good.
However, I have a feeling it might fall flat.
Have you been drinking Donzah's coolaid again ?
Will be fun to watch. Have seen these types go either way over the years but its the right time of year with good temps so fingers crossed its one that swings our way.
EC.
Tale of the tape.
Majority of the moisture is west of Otways.
This is a 700hpa chart.
Apologies Mod - this sums up Vic snow forecast:
“Can you please stop coming at a me with doz negative waves!”
Typical slider, IMOEC.
Tale of the tape.
Majority of the moisture is west of Otways.
This is a 700hpa chart.
Nah i don't think so.
Core of the low travels north...then Northwest..pause... then east.
Front looks pretty stationary along the GDR.
Few troughs in the mix.It’s definitely nice and cold, Jane saying snow out around the Ballarat area on the news. There’s a patch of 528 thickness around central vic area on Saturday. Just need some moisture with it
Don't need snow near Ballarat. Need snow near LM and BB. FC and Hoth will welcome something, too. July can deliver.
We need more BB specials please !!!
Speaking of Lake Mtn. ,
BOM seem to be looking at some snow falling up there. I could get interested in that !.
Saturday 3 July
SummaryMin -1Max 1Snow showers.Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mmChance of any rain: 95%
North Central area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 700 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Possible small hail. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 9.
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]
Sunday 4 July
SummaryMin 0Max 2Snow showers.Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 100%
North Central area
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the east, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 900 metres. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 13.
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]
Monday 5 July
SummaryMin 0Max 3Possible showers or snow.Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mmChance of any rain: 40%
North Central area
Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the east. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to around 2 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 12.
So a little bit of snow tonight and a dusting Saturday night up at DaBo.
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