Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

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POW Hungry

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AXS-C showing 15-30mm for major resorts 24 hours to Saturday 10pm (end of the run), so not including Sunday.
Snow possible above 700m according to AXS-C.

Snow looks to kick off in Vic resorts from ~1900 hours tonight.
Screen Shot 2021-07-02 at 7.50.20 am.png
 

POW Hungry

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AXS-C does tend to be 'moisture-bias' for the alpine IMO, so if you bring it back a notch, or two.
10-20cm seems the likely outcome for Aus resorts; tonight through Saturday night.

With a few more cm here/there on Sunday, that brings us pretty close to 15-25cm IMO.
 

Snow Blowey

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AXS-C does tend to be 'moisture-bias' for the alpine IMO, so if you bring it back a notch, or two.
10-20cm seems the likely outcome for Aus resorts; tonight through Saturday night.

With a few more cm here/there on Sunday, that brings us pretty close to 15-25cm IMO.
Its something i have been thinking about this week. Back in the day of 25km resolution output you learnt that the model forecast would fall around mid mountain and that you could double it for up high. But now with some high res model output i think the model output is already showing us peak falls on the highest parts of the range. This means we actually should be scaling the falls down for resort areas.
 

POW Hungry

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To keep people's expectations in check, EC Ensembles still showing 8-12cm Friday night through Sunday.
BoM's forecasted precip chances are very much in line with this (particularly NSW BOM).
 
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Jellybeans

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Its something i have been thinking about this week. Back in the day of 25km resolution output you learnt that the model forecast would fall around mid mountain and that you could double it for up high. But now with some high res model output i think the model output is already showing us peak falls on the highest parts of the range. This means we actually should be scaling the falls down for resort areas.
Yeah but the whole AXS suite has always been a bit of a pumper in the mountains.
 

blueandwhite

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How are we looking for westerly winds at Buller through this period? Dare I even ask!

BOM suggesting a possibility on Sunday but presume it's highly dependent on the track of the low pressure?
 

Chowder11

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How are we looking for westerly winds at Buller through this period? Dare I even ask!

BOM suggesting a possibility on Sunday but presume it's highly dependent on the track of the low pressure?
Going to be way to cold even for the west winds in this one IMO. FL is 900-1000. Even Buller can’t beat that
 
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POW Hungry

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One thing in the models I have noticed this 'season' is that they're inclined to be light on the moisture in the long to medium range then in the leading 72 hours or so they seem to stack it on late.

Likely to be -'ve IOD induced but I, myself have been factoring that in long-range.

I've heard a few calls the last couple of months saying 'yeah, but it looks dry' or 'doesn't look like much moisture', but it's def in our region this season.
 

NightSky

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One thing in the models I have noticed this 'season' is that they're inclined to be light on the moisture in the long to medium range then in the leading 72 hours or so they seem to stack it on late.

Likely to be -'ve IOD induced but I, myself have been factoring that in long-range.

I've heard a few calls the last couple of months saying 'yeah, but it looks dry' or 'doesn't look like much moisture', but it's def in our region this season.
I was going to say i saw that as well. The last few that have come through have faded in moisture from about the 10 day to 3 day mark, then returned
 

The Fallen

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ALL level temps are into the 1000m freeze level range.

Moisture is being undervalued.

We had a surface level fog over most of the eastern and western regions of the divide.... This means maximum convection from surface level as the colder NW wind feeds into the ALPS and meets cold air convection.

I'm seeing major underestimation..... 40 to 50cm for NSW and 20+ for Vic
 

The Fallen

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One thing in the models I have noticed this 'season' is that they're inclined to be light on the moisture in the long to medium range then in the leading 72 hours or so they seem to stack it on late.

Likely to be -'ve IOD induced but I, myself have been factoring that in long-range.

I've heard a few calls the last couple of months saying 'yeah, but it looks dry' or 'doesn't look like much moisture', but it's def in our region this season.

Due to the East coast and west tassy warm pools?
 

rocketboy

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ALL level temps are into the 1000m freeze level range.

Moisture is being undervalued.

We had a surface level fog over most of the eastern and western regions of the divide.... This means maximum convection from surface level as the colder NW wind feeds into the ALPS and meets cold air convection.

I'm seeing major underestimation..... 40 to 50cm for NSW and 20+ for Vic

Always a good sign when "The Fallen" is backing the white horse. Usually a late starter to the party- but over the years I've noticed that the mug is truly half full when The Fallen is serving drinks.
 

Ozgirl

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ALL level temps are into the 1000m freeze level range.

Moisture is being undervalued.

We had a surface level fog over most of the eastern and western regions of the divide.... This means maximum convection from surface level as the colder NW wind feeds into the ALPS and meets cold air convection.

I'm seeing major underestimation..... 40 to 50cm for NSW and 20+ for Vic
All have what he's having!
 

Nidecker

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ALL level temps are into the 1000m freeze level range.

Moisture is being undervalued.

We had a surface level fog over most of the eastern and western regions of the divide.... This means maximum convection from surface level as the colder NW wind feeds into the ALPS and meets cold air convection.

I'm seeing major underestimation..... 40 to 50cm for NSW and 20+ for Vic
I predict we will all owe you a ctn if that happens :thumbs:
 

Kletterer

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ALL level temps are into the 1000m freeze level range.

Moisture is being undervalued.

We had a surface level fog over most of the eastern and western regions of the divide.... This means maximum convection from surface level as the colder NW wind feeds into the ALPS and meets cold air convection.

I'm seeing major underestimation..... 40 to 50cm for NSW and 20+ for Vic
Im thinking Vic will do better than that comparison with NSW. ECMWF Theta E values for Vic look goodly . Who gets the better Shear instability could be the difference imo.
 

The Fallen

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Always a good sign when "The Fallen" is backing the white horse. Usually a late starter to the party- but over the years I've noticed that the mug is truly half full when The Fallen is serving drinks.

Thanks mate and all the replies.

but its my call based on the best in the business. Kletterer, Donza, CC, Pow, Jelly and the rest of our best.

I'm just seeing, as Donz called. a heavy NW slider which will feed anything that has a leading valley form the NW. This be Falls Maze, Feathertop and anything in NSW north of Kosci...

Donz mentioned downslope cooling and I back it.
 

The Fallen

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Nah, moisture injection to the polar flow, via Eastern IO predecessor that went through SW WA over the weekend.

I was more thinking the weakening influence caused by cold pools under WA...

They hit cold under WA so they peak

And then they hit Vic coast and cool under SA, before rebuilding off he SE NSW/Tassy coast...

We have a water temp pattern where they feed South West of Western Aus and weaken in the Bight before reforming off the Western Tassy Coast Yeah?

Our chance this July is for the Warm at the SA/VIC border feeding convection which what I'm basing my increases off

1625213632226.png
 
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The Fallen

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If you want my OPINON?

I hate the the warm water west of Tas and NSW. It suck's the guts out of the low's that move through the bight.

Its a BACK END KILLER...


In my perfect world, we need warm to move under the WA hook and settle into the bight by 1 August..... that then feeds peaking lows over Vic and SE NSW.....

Its a dream ATM so i backtrack and find the best of possible scenarios......

I work of known systems and then break them down in retrospect to see why each one worked and why others didn't

I then evaluate new data.... work in progress
 

POW Hungry

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Our chance this July is for the Warm at the SA/VIC border feeding convection which what I'm basing my increases off
I think I get what you're saying.
That warm eddy hugging the continental shelf from Kangaroo Island to Western Tas will offer 2 parts of FA IMO.

Need large broadscale warm current pools to have moisture/convection influence, not a sliver.
 

Jellybeans

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I hate the the warm water west of Tas and NSW. It suck's the guts out of the low's that move through the bight.

Its a BACK END KILLER...
I would have said that makes “beast from the east systems” and ECLs stronger.

But yes it kills Buller seasons for sure.
 

The Fallen

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I think I get what you're saying.
That warm eddy hugging the continental shelf from
1625215286246.png
to Western Tas will offer 2 parts of FA IMO.

Need large broadscale warm current pools to have moisture/convection influence, not a sliver.

Re Kangaroo, I'm calling that the warm pool will force rotation of the cold air moving over it at surface level... this will then condense over the up hill convection over the Northern ALPS including Falls. and then download due to expansion.
 

The Fallen

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I would have said that makes “beast from the east systems” and ECLs stronger.

But yes it kills Buller seasons for sure.

Hey JB, love your work on models and I'm not one to argue BUT....


Warm water in the bight is what we need for above average systems.

We need the polar cold system lows to transition into the warmer mid latitude lows as they peak over Aus.

IF they don't transition, then they fall into CLIPPERS.

Once a Polar Low meets tropical moisture, it becomes a sub tropical low.

The main feed for a sub tropical snow low is the sea surface temperature as it TRANSITIONS from frozen Antarctic ocean into a sub tropical WARM WATER FEED.

SO at the transition point, we need it to peak under SA then feed.
 
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The Fallen

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I think I get what you're saying.
That warm eddy hugging the continental shelf from Kangaroo Island to Western Tas will offer 2 parts of FA IMO.

Need large broadscale warm current pools to have moisture/convection influence, not a sliver.

Hey Pow, more detail, i see the Kangaroo Island feeding the secondary trough. cold air over warm water feeds rotation so if the main low can stall for 6 hours, then back feed from the imbedded trough will triple and mainly for VIC
 
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Jellybeans

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Hey JB, love your work on models and I'm not one to argue BUT....


Warm water in the bight is what we need for above average systems.

We need the polar cold system lows to transition into the warmer mid latitude lows as they peak over Aus.

IF they don't transition, then they fall into CLIPPERS.

Once a Polar Low meets tropical moisture, it becomes a sub tropical low.

The main feed for a sub tropical snow low is the sea surface temperature as it TRANSITIONS from frozen Antarctic ocean into a sub tropical WARM WATER FEED.

SO at the transition point, we need it to peak under SA then feed.
This is OTT, and I also don’t wish to sound too argumentative.

However the data that Gerg collected argues that warm SST temps in Tasman and the GAB are detrimental to snowfall.

The real power that these lows have IMO is that they are deep and cold. And when they interact with the sub-tropical domain and large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, we see big systems.

It’s about the bigger scale, compared to the more smaller scale involved with for example Japanese snowfall.
 

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