This is OTT, and I also don’t wish to sound too argumentative.
However the data that Gerg collected argues that warm SST temps in Tasman and the GAB are detrimental to snowfall.
The real power that these lows have IMO is that they are deep and cold. And when they interact with the sub-tropical domain and large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, we see big systems.
It’s about the bigger scale, compared to the more smaller scale involved with for example Japanese snowfall.
Still more than I have been expecting for the past 2 days so sounds good.IMO AXS-C does tend to overstate in elevated terrain, so you MIGHT expect those sort of numbers on isolated peaks IMO.
Based on 00z run, ~20mm is what I read into the AXS-C for the resorts to 10pm Sunday IMO.
To put it into perspective: EC going for ~7mm & GFS showing ~15mm, so AXS-C is the bullish one of the bunch - def shouldn't be taken as gospel.Still more than I have been expecting for the past 2 days so sounds good.
Very wet down in Bright. Been raining intermittently since 5am and was coming down at times despite radar not showing much. About to make the drive up to Falls, hoping for POW day!AXS-C likes a bit of a Main Range moisture burst 5-6am tomorrow.
It's not picked up by EC so that'll be interesting to see unfold.