Predictions 2-6th July Season Starter

Status
Not open for further replies.

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
922
1,574
263
Central Coast
This is OTT, and I also don’t wish to sound too argumentative.

However the data that Gerg collected argues that warm SST temps in Tasman and the GAB are detrimental to snowfall.

The real power that these lows have IMO is that they are deep and cold. And when they interact with the sub-tropical domain and large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, we see big systems.

It’s about the bigger scale, compared to the more smaller scale involved with for example Japanese snowfall.

I agree the Gerg is the Guru re long term trends and season on season.

My SST analysis is a little more fine tuned. I know this is a predictions thread so i will limit my ramble... I grew up skiing Falls from 88 out of the Bogong Ski Club so i cut my teeth forecasting Vic and as i was in year 6 in 88 and started crushing data at 17 (first job with internet), I used the basic daily MSLP models and spent 10 years emailing the BOM for twice dailys.

They started emailing me the twice dailys so then I started chasing Sea Surface Temps SST. they then started posting SST on their website but they were monthly anomalies with a weekly temp map that you needed to compare week to week.

I emailed them for over 5 years to get a daily SST Anomaly and they finally did.

Anyway, long story short, its not the years that start with warm in the bight that make good seasons. ITS the seasons where the warm passes the WA Hook by early July and then moves under Adelaide by late July/beginning of August.

As you know, the polar rotation peaks in August/September so you ideally want neutral to just below average SST under Adelaide in the early season because it feeds cooler air into the early season low rotation, which often includes a few NW Pineapples.

SO Early season, yes, cooler water in the bight is a positive as long as the lows can draw in the NW feed before Adelaide which then feeds the back end of the early season systems.

BUT Once the Polar Rotation kicks in by mid July and we start seeing 4 to 7 to 9 day intervals between fronts, we need the warmer water moving in from the Indian which if it makes it around the hook, and pools in the WA/Adel bight, does two things.

1 feeds moisture into the fast moving clippers which feed Falls/Hoth and Buller

2 They feed the stronger polar lows causing them to stall/slow slightly (6 to 12 hours) in the bight whilst they feed. This then allows the trailing fronts to line up behind them and we see a proper August conveyor system. They are becoming rarer and rarer these days.

I fully agree with the upper and mid level assessments for early season, BUT our Alps are low, so once the proper late July/August SW systems move in, if Melb is 14c, and we have moisture, its gonna snow. AND the warmer the water under Adel, the more moisture they carry.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

lewis

Addicted
Jan 25, 2018
170
221
113
IMO AXS-C does tend to overstate in elevated terrain, so you MIGHT expect those sort of numbers on isolated peaks IMO.
Based on 00z run, ~20mm is what I read into the AXS-C for the resorts to 10pm Sunday IMO.
Still more than I have been expecting for the past 2 days so sounds good.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,695
38,754
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Still more than I have been expecting for the past 2 days so sounds good.
To put it into perspective: EC going for ~7mm & GFS showing ~15mm, so AXS-C is the bullish one of the bunch - def shouldn't be taken as gospel.

In light of this model spread, personally; I am expecting 10-20cm in the resorts between now & tomorrow night.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,695
38,754
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
i.e. Last night's AXS-C in reanalysis had this prog for Friday 10pm to Saturday 10am accumulative precip, including areas of 10-20mm which was overstated IMO.
Screen Shot 2021-07-03 at 3.06.37 pm.png

Outcome* (24 hour total):
Jamieson (near Buller) picked up the highest total on the GDR, totaling 18mm (24 hours to 9am Sat)
Screen Shot 2021-07-03 at 3.08.50 pm.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass