Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,281
    Likes Received:
    1,084
    Location:
    Sydney
    This is a Tassy special, the west coast alpine is going to get some spectacular snowfalls out of this!

    Mainland should do well enough once the prefrontal has passed too. Indications of plenty of moisture and orographics to be had in consistently cold north west to south westerly airstreams. The overall pattern is a goodun even if it does not have one big front that hits as hard as the last two.
     
    The Fallen likes this.
  2. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    This one will be "The Accumulator"
     
  3. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,789
    Likes Received:
    823
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    . deleted. Wrong chart.
     

    Attached Files:

    #504 Claude Cat, Jul 20, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    That's this morning's 12Z run CC...:confused:
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    you're right. :mad:
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Here's the right one

     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Tuesday still looks ok. Might be brief, but a top-up won't hurt. Maybe 15 cents still in it?
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    For all the haters and humph-ers of Friday.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
  11. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    Give it a pass mark in the other Thread.
    This for Sunday . Mmmmaybe peaking a bit early.
    The vibe is good.
    [​IMG]
     
    #511 nfip, Jul 20, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    It's going to be all about the timing.
     
    PMG, nfip, FourSquare04 and 1 other person like this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, also not nearly as cold as recent runs. Places like LM, Buller & BB may suffer a fair bit.
     
    alpine_surfer likes this.
  14. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    443
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    What is the prediction for Baw Baw ?? We need it :(:(
     
  15. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Looks excessively aggressive hey, maybe its going to nail this event. This looks the best it could get.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    443
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    We need it, I will have the crown jewels crossed as well... o_Oo_O
     
  17. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    6,178
    I'm planning on camping at Mount Stirling, above the expected snowline but relatively low in the trees from Sat morning trough to Monday, any thoughts on the wind Saturday? Much appreciated
     
  18. slotmachine

    slotmachine Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    3
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  20. slotmachine

    slotmachine Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    3
    fingers crossed
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Latest access r run looks epic.

    Satellite has this thing peaking at the right moment. Its just below Perth at the moment at 50 S. Watch it move. Its gonna be a beast of a snowfall.

    looking at Satellite I would say not much prefrontal rain.
     
    nfip and The Fallen like this.
  22. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The pressure over the SE is still pretty low and with a trough hanging around, it makes the models natural progression to show the trailing high ridging in but all it takes is for one of the secondary fronts to beef up on its way here and keep the ridge at bay for another day and we get the multiple days of repeated falls we are hoping for.

    Once the current trough over SydCo clears out tomorrow I think the models will get a better read on it and it will surprise.
     
    7wombathead and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I'm sorry, that's just not going to happen.

    IMO
     
    The Plowking and POW_hungry like this.
  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    We all know AXS-R is THE model for 72 hours out.

    540 line just over the mountains, 544 line well north. As a general rule, 540 line would be snow down to about 1200-1300m, 544 line would be around 1600m......

    At the very least we should see snow above 1600m gradually lowering during the afternoon and into the evening based off the above.....

    This could really surprise IMO
     
    7wombathead, jungfrau and POW_hungry like this.
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,377
    Likes Received:
    58,626
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    I'm liking this post but I'm no less skeptical about those totals than I am about the ones for Friday. Half of each. 30-40mm of rain, 20-30cm of snow.
     
  26. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    629
    Likes Received:
    587
    60cm? :eek:
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Adiabatic cooling brings it to around those levels, yep. CC's on the money though, as it really depends when this cool air arrives. AXS-R only really has that cool air as a line-ball for the resorts until early Saturday, not ideal.
    It'll be the difference between 10-15cm or 10-15mm.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It sure is on the upper scale. IMO cull your extreme upper and extreme lower and average the totals and you've got yourself 20-30cm. Def agree.
     
  29. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    170
    The boys have just brought in another couple of ki'. Reckon it's gunna be atleast half a metre
    Saturday; sniff sniff..
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  30. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    170
    Let's hope the models don't sneeze and blow it all away.
     
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Either way i would not punt on it raining or snowing if my life depends on it.

    I like the progression on the Satellite. Almost don't need synoptic models anymore.
    `
    Its moving so fast.
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Current NSW BOM forecast holds further optimism:

    Friday 22 July
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 40 to 60 km/h before dawn then turning westerly 35 to 50 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 23 July
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Sunday 24 July
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost. High (80%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 9000 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    20% at 1000m
     
  33. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    7,806
    Likes Received:
    6,417
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindabyne
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Agree,
    This.
     
  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Simply.
    Don't ski Friday.
    Do ski Saturday.
    Standard Australian system.
    Prefrontal....then snow.
    Avoid resorts starting with B.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO a little Saturday morning, but Tuesday's system is a better bet.
     
  37. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Thinking here first flakes likely Alps 10 -11pm Friday night. Then saturday afternoon may think about a ski in lygon street:froth:
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Hardly a Baw Baw special though.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Reckon 'wintery mix' at the big 4 from late Arvo- early evening myself.
     
    #539 The Plowking, Jul 20, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
    mick chopps and Claude Cat like this.
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Reckon it might come a bit earlier for the higher elevation resorts e.g. Perisher & top of Thredbo IMO
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    BOM - Perisher Forecast:

    Friday 22 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 7
    Rain then possible late snow.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 70 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain then possible late snow. Winds northwesterly 60 to 85 km/h turning westerly during the afternoon and evening.

    Saturday 23 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 0
    Snow showers easing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 60 to 85 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    Yer she's punching thru , need zoom out to really get a feel for the energy.
    Gives some cred to optimism.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,119
    Likes Received:
    20,371
    Location:
    Canberra
    Looks to be starting to throw coal into the fire Thurs night.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh, I looks like it will be really blowing over the alps from early AM Friday. IMO it's not going to be pleasant Friday. Wind and rain until it turns to snow later in the day.
     
    7wombathead and Kletterer like this.
  45. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    [​IMG]
    BOM may have alerts all the way up-to New England NSW.
     
    7wombathead and Kletterer like this.
  46. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,483
    Likes Received:
    4,498
    I think snow around 7pm Friday. I'm more optimistic on totals than many here though, I can't see less than 30cm at the big 4 and could see double that as a real possibility
     
    jonathanc likes this.
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,119
    Likes Received:
    20,371
    Location:
    Canberra
    Will be aggressive and volatile . Like a dogfight. Interesting to see the outcome.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I am not one to dabble in 06Z runs but for what it's worth here are the totals from 7pm Friday to 10pm Saturday for 06Z GFS.
    [​IMG]
     
  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,419
    Likes Received:
    18,213
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    The prefrontal will be brutal then the repair work will begin late Friday night IMO. Should see a further top up Tues-Wed and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.
     
    MickM likes this.
  50. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    CMC/GEM is sweet this morning for a 1,2,3 punch

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]