Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,641
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    3 strikes might get me out. Just need to close eyes Friday.
     
    1st_King_of_QBN and POW_hungry like this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Can certainly be useful when GFS & EC say the same thing IMO, fortunately the deviation is not bad for all 3.
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  3. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    I refuse to look at the cams lol
     
    MickM likes this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    AXS putting all (almost) the eggs in one basket for Friday, which now agree with at ~6-7pm arrival of cold air. In tune with GFS.

    FRI
    [​IMG]
    SAT
    [​IMG]
     
    #554 POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Someone at WZ is off to ski Vicco this weekend ;)
    Whilst Hotham and Falls will do just fine, their defiance to consider ALL resorts will likely disappoint some!
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS 7pm Friday-10pm Saturday (progged resort snow)
    [​IMG]
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  7. slotmachine

    slotmachine Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    3
    SAsurfa likes this.
  8. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,687
    Likes Received:
    2,754
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    For NSW looks like cold air is taking its sweet arse time to get here.

    5400 not arriving until 1-4am and before that maybe 546 and resort level snow by midnight if we're lucky.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not ideal, no. 2C @850hPa (7-10pm) is better though. We need some cooling with that so yes, speculative at this stage but I feel from 7pm onwards see snow from 1700-1800m decending IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    #559 POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Elevation and aspect (given it's inbound Westerly) should do NSW some favours for a 7-8pm change, but yeah it can't come soon enough.
    IMO, I think come Friday early-mid arvo we'll see a defined moisture band make landfall around Mt Gambier to make judgement on when we'll see snow for resorts.
     
  11. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,518
    Likes Received:
    2,024
    Location:
    Sydney
    Actually GFS looks better this am than it has for most of the week. Just hope the snow arrives in time in NSW to make it super Saturday rather than soggy Saturday.
     
    #561 PMG, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
    skiingtk likes this.
  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    I was reminded a few weeks back to look at the height of the 850, which will lower as the pressure drops..
    Here it's 1360 so at the resorts will be *colder per this model.
    Big picture it's looking very nice.
    Models are agreeing and the 2016 vibe remains.
    Edit - *10 deg C / 1000m in clear air or 6 deg C /1000m in cloudy weather. * ísh
     
    #562 nfip, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  13. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    Disregard my earlier post.. With sleep filled eye's this morning I pulled the wrong set of model runs :D 17 not the 20th.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    You can lay money that Perisher and Thredbo will do better. IMO
    Pretty much unless it's a moist SW or S cold blast (which don't happen very often), NSW resorts always do better.
     
  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,483
    Likes Received:
    4,498
    And the heavier moisture looks to be pushing further north on this morns axsr, although I see it as a moisture downgrade generally
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,133
    Likes Received:
    28,167
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    I was about to post that I thought the snow level would be lower than progged for this system on Friday. Beat me to it.
     
    nfip and FourSquare04 like this.
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the Wimmera, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 5:16 am EST on Thursday 21 July 2016.

    Weather Situation
    North to northwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front which will approach western Victoria tonight then move across the State early Friday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100km/h are forecast to develop Thursday night and early Friday over parts of the Wimmera, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts. Elevated areas are most susceptible. Wind gusts around 110km/h are expected over Alpine areas during Friday morning.
     
    Mctavish and POW_hungry like this.
  18. azzski

    azzski Should know better Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 1999
    Messages:
    42,292
    Likes Received:
    20,901
    Location:
    St Kilda, Australia
    Meanwhile, maximum of 26 predicted for Sydney on Friday.
     
  19. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    Any other reasons ?.
    For me 500 's are OK , but add in that fetch adds up to it,
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    Yeh par for the real good 'uns.
    IMO.
     
  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Definitely a down day tomorrow IMO - majority of chairs will be on wind hold
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,380
    Likes Received:
    16,653
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    there is a shed load of speckle in the indian ocean , it's all a matter of how this NW feed clears out.
     
  23. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    [​IMG]

    I am liking the look of the Indian High and the way it is starting to bulge out at the bottom. The more she bulges, the deeper the fetch penetrates into Antarctica.

    We just need it to hold off ridging out for as long as possible to get maximum cold frontage.

    The Little low (1017hpa) sitting at the 7 O'clock should bring a nice surprise once it gets pushed along by the cold front behind it.

    The Satellite is also showing the Leading Front just starting to mix with the NW Jetstream over SW WA so hopefully it knocks the temps down just enough to minimise the rain and bring on the snow a little earlier.
     
    Kletterer, nfip and DidSurfNowSki like this.
  24. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,837
    Likes Received:
    4,650
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    Any thoughts on Mondays wind and visibility for VIC resorts?

    I have my folks coming over from Perth this weekend, staying in Beechworth and have a surprise backcountry sunset tour booked for us at Hotham on the Monday

    First time in history I am wishing for no snow and clear skies.
     
    Bloke likes this.
  25. Adricat

    Adricat One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2011
    Messages:
    1,019
    Likes Received:
    184
    Location:
    ACT
    Wash your mouth out.
     
  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Looks like it will be Windy with Snow Showers. A Front is due to hit mid Monday evening so winds will strengthen into the evening as the Snow Showers Intensify IMO.

    BUT its a long way off and things will start moving and changing fast, once we know exactly how the Trailing High will behave.

    If it ridges out during Monday, then you could be sweet but if (as everyone else here is hoping) one of the trailing front gets on the roids and beefs up on the way here, it should keep the ridge at bay for another day or two allowing snow to continue into Mid next week.
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Okay i am not referring to any synoptic chart, but it wont really matter if rains a bit judging by this.

    [​IMG]
     
    teebee, Kletterer, skidazza and 7 others like this.
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
  29. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Yep, the 4 dayer is looking about as good as it gets.

    Multiple bogies with sustained SW fetch mixed in with a couple of small lows.

    Had a feeling it would upgrade once the Sydco trough cleared out today.
     
    dr80 and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  30. Marsh123

    Marsh123 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2015
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    7
    Any body able to shed some light on what sort of conditions to expect at Buller on Sunday? Planning to drive up from Melbourne with mates, don't really want to be stuck with wind holds all day.
     
  31. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,420
    Likes Received:
    18,214
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Cold, gentle NNW winds, bit of snow in the afternoon, not too bad really IMO.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    [​IMG]
     
    Vermillion and POW_hungry like this.
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Winds will be strengthening in the arvo, but I wouldn't expect anything like tomorrow. Low chance of windholds IMO.
     
  34. Marsh123

    Marsh123 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2015
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    7
    Nice thanks - will be making the trip either way I think :)

    Have a weekend in Falls from August 12, so time to shake the cobwebs off a bit
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,133
    Likes Received:
    28,167
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Tight isobars.
     
    tot and nfip like this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Lock in that 6-8pm transition tomorrow PM, I reckon. 00Z GFS
    [​IMG]
     
    Driftwood and SnowBound like this.
  37. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,573
    Likes Received:
    1,708
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    what's it looking like for sunday NSW?
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Dunno where you mean specifically, but I wrote this on Monday for Perisher... Still stands IMO.
     
    SnowBound likes this.
  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,409
    Likes Received:
    22,789
    Location:
    South Co
    Porn .

    It's one thing I've learned this year is the models really can't be relied until the system or other preceding events have shown their hand.
    There is a lot of weather since El Nino departed , and especially this coming week there's too much info there.
    It really does smack home , again , the 4 day rule.
     
  40. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
  41. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    919
    Likes Received:
    1,117
    Location:
    wollongong
    Novice question here, but what time does 12z correspond to here?:)
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  42. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2016
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    27
    1200 GMT
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,032
    Likes Received:
    27,590
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    +10 hrs for Syd/Melbourne and Bris at the moment (so Sunday 10pm on that model)
     
    dr80, Bien E, 7wombathead and 2 others like this.
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    00Z GFS run



    522 line up to Tasmania on Saturday
     
  45. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Its one of those things where if you can work out the weakness in the models then you can compensate for it by using different data sets.

    Personally, I look for a few key triggers in the longer range models and then work it back looking for things that are going to blow up the prediction.

    If you can cross out the possible negatives and still be left with a reasonable progression, then you start tracking it in.

    Watching the progression on the Southern Hemisphere MSLP gives a good idea of how the Highs are behaving and their progression, compared to the fronts and lows running beneath them, and once you see a high stalling in the Central Indian, then its worth watching.

    The Highs currently over Aus are not very strong and they are disorganised thanks to Yesterdays Trough. The trailing high is well back in the Central Indian so it leave a lot of room over Aus for the fronts to slingshot north over the Alps.

    I think the Models struggle with the strength of the fronts until they get into our region so the natural progression of the models is to show the Indian High ridge in to fill the gap but all it takes is a strong front or two to sneak in and keep the ridge at bay, and we get the conveyer up and running and a 4 day chart similar to this one.
     
    Bloke, nfip, 7wombathead and 4 others like this.
  46. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    26
    Whilst I really want as much snow as possible I am hoping for some clear and limited precip on Sunday as I am racing the motorbike at broadford. Really dont want to use wets if I dont have to. From what I can see there may be some respite prior to a front coming through later in the day? Is likely?
     
  47. Driftwood

    Driftwood Addicted

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    178
    Likes Received:
    144

    Hoping that's the case! It's going to be interesting to watch it unfold..


    [​IMG]
     
  48. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    170
    [​IMG]
    Two days out and could be 50 cm, nice and cold too.
     
    nfip, FourSquare04 and MickM like this.
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,635
    Likes Received:
    65,108
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Updated SWW. Stronger winds!

    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the Wimmera, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 3:38 pm EST on Thursday 21 July 2016.

    Weather Situation
    North to northwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front which will approach western Victoria tonight then move across the State early Friday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100km/h are forecast to develop Thursday night and early Friday over parts of the Wimmera, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts. Elevated areas are most susceptible. Wind gusts of 110 to 120 km/h are expected over Alpine areas during Friday morning.
     
  50. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2016
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    27
    Makes me worried about wind hold for Perisher saturday :(