Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A chance first up, but will ease during the morning.
    IMO
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Expect a bit of fall out from overnight heavy snow and strong winds first up forsure 70-80km/h WSW.
    IMO.
     
  3. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    You know that most of that precip is rain?
     
  4. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

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    Yup looks like it dies down a bit by 10am.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    You need to use the 850 or 700 Hpa pressure (elevation map), not surface.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Sunday looks more manageable. In between fronts.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM (Snowies)

    Weather incoming !

    Friday 22 July
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 1600 metres. Heavy falls possible. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h during the morning and early afternoon.

    Sun protection 11:10am to 1:30pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]
    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 23 July
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 900 metres. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.
    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    70% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Sunday 24 July
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly during the morning.
    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Monday 25 July
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h becoming northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h during the evening.
    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    30% at 1000m
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm sorry, these kind of forecasts are pretty useless IMO.
    1. the precipitation type changes during the day, so 1 flake of snow at 11:30pm is good enough to qualify for snow down to 1400m? There's no feeling of what's actually happening during the day.
    2. There no quantity indicated.

    I much prefer the Vic BOM's forecast: Eg

    (Hotham tomorrow)

    Min 2
    Max 5
    Heavy rain or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]

    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain or snow. Rain heavy at times in the morning. Winds northwesterly 45 to 55 km/h tending north to northwesterly 60 to 75 km/h before dawn then turning westerly 60 to 80 km/h in the late afternoon.

    Or this:
    Friday 22 July
    Scattered showers extending throughout, tending to areas of rain across the ranges and northeast with some moderate to heavy falls. The chance of thunderstorms about the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Snowfalls developing on the Alpine peaks during the late afternoon or evening then lowering to 1000 metres at night. Mild and partly cloudy with fresh to strong northwesterly winds, reaching gale force over Alpine areas, shifting cooler westerly from the west during the afternoon.
     
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  9. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So long as a T bar runs these are often still epic days - fresh all day
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With the timing (moisture/cold-air combo), this one does look difficult to articulate.
    AXS inline with this morning's run going for it to be light on (~15cm).
    [​IMG]
    I need @Jeffb with some EC model imput about now. ;)

    00Z EC for Saturday.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z GFS, 1900 Friday to 2200 Saturday
    [​IMG]
     
    #611 POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    My post was for the area forecast. Drilling down to the Perisher Valley resort...

    Friday 22 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 8
    Rain tending to snow later.
    Possible rainfall: 25 to 80 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1700 metres. Heavy falls possible. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h increasing to 65 to 90 km/h in the morning then turning westerly 75 to 105 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection 11:10am to 1:20pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]


    Saturday 23 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 0
    Snow showers easing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 55 km/h before dawn then decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day.

    Sunday 24 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h turning northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then increasing to 30 to 45 km/h during the evening.

    Monday 25 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 0
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h becoming northwesterly 60 to 75 km/h during the evening.

    Tuesday 26 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 0
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h turning westerly 25 to 30 km/h during the day.
     
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  13. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The model's are still interesting but its time to bring the Satellite into it to track individual moisture bands.

    This season we seem to be getting more moisture than predicted a few days out so I think the BoM totals above are a bit lite on IMO.

    The Vibe is strong with this one.
     
  14. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This will be so good if we get those totals. Really need it, seems like spring skiing this week.
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AxsG 144hr is ridiculous!
     
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  16. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    WOW that is just nuts if that comes off
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good call... Look what too much time on your hands does. Now I feel like @VSG
    Here's how the current Himawari Sat picture looks as the front is brushing Albany, WA right now.
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Such bollocks... It's virtually gone rogue. Nothing agrees with it.
     
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  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [QUOTE_hungry,post: 3 member: 1803"]Good call... Look what too much time on your hands does. Now I feel like @VSG
    Here's how the current Himawari Sat picture looks as the front is brushing Albany, WA right now.
    [​IMG][/QUOTE]

    Thats the ticket

    More goodness In the bottom left too
     
  20. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not so sure. @The Fallen , amongst others has been mooting this for days. If at around 120hrs the ridge breaks down, that low strengthens, breaks through and the conveyor starts
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence 'Ridiculous'

    Epic make believe chart.
     
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  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hopecast!
     
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  23. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I'll back it because of the 'vibe' :cheers:
     
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  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Except this:
    [​IMG]
     
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jeepers
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The heat has been taken out of the leading section (the bit in between the 20-25th front and the 26-28th one) so that will allow the 26-28th to rush up. I feel like AXS is a run ahead of the others right now, although having said that i'll wake up tomorrow and it'll be squashed like Richmond's finals hopes.
     
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  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    144...
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll pay that one. Spag not got much for it.
    I am a sceptic at this point. That high has a lot of sliding and pinching to do.
     
  29. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also the way the spag has evolved over the past few days. Recall @mick chopps 'flat' cf now.

    I renew my vote for the merging of these dates (threads) and now blatantly state the current stupidity of the point of division....
     
  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    i don't like the look of those friday totals IMO. If those totals come off mostly as clear stuff, we're headed for a net loss over the weekend IMO
     
  32. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any chance someone can post the said 144 chart in this forum? Cheers.
     
  33. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    #633 Jeffb, Jul 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  34. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My main reason in segregating was that discussing 3 systems over the course of a week was it going to get gnarly. so hard to shift through the info and updated runs for 3 days away when someones talking about tomorrow or next Wednesday!
     
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  36. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasty
     
  38. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I get it.
    There's a lot going on next week , there's a lot of weather about.
    Friday/Sat , Sunday/Mon , Tuesday/ wednesday....
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know, and it was a good idea. It's just inevitable with the shifting of the timing of the systems that the dividing point has become problematic. In many ways Sunday is the only real dividing point now imo
     
  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah... Pre-Frontal vs Post-Frontal IMO
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ???

    First thread would end Saturday. Next start Sunday.

    Anywise, that's the last of that from me.
     
  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry Karicta, I was just being silly. What will make or break this one is how much damage is done tomorrow vs how much repair work is done before Thursday. I predict tomorrow will be a long day.
     
  43. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is all cool buddy. I'll be shocked if Friday isn't a very distant memory by next Thursday.
     
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  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    15Z
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #645 Jeffb, Jul 22, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2016
  46. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS looking much better for tonight, tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
  48. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Yes/no still going for over 1m of snow after the clear stuff at PB
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also calling 50mm of liquid pow today.
     
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  50. slotmachine

    slotmachine Hard Yards

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    might be able to double that for NSW