2006 Forecasting Comp

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Phanto, May 15, 2006.

  1. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    Not long to go...

    How are things AJ?
     
  2. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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    Have you guys already posted your predications? What are they ???
     
  3. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    #3 Phanto, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  4. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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  5. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    They are last years scores at the moment
     
  6. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ill be in. Always look forward to it.
     
  7. MISFIT

    MISFIT First Runs

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    Im in.6th straight year. [​IMG]
     
    #7 MISFIT, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Misses Frog

    Misses Frog First Runs

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    Yeah, I wouldn't miss it, bit of fun.

    Think I'll stick with Thredders, even though both there and PB have had reporting issues.

    (oops, have to remember to log out as missus frog and log in as The Frog). [​IMG]
     
    #8 Misses Frog, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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  10. Misses Frog

    Misses Frog First Runs

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    Do we need prizes? or should we leave it as is?
     
  11. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    I'll be in. Looking forward to it :woohoo:

    It makes a good platform for those (like myself) who are very new to snow forecasting, as we get too see the acuracy of our predicitons. Hopefully this means we can refine and improve!
     
  12. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Alright, it's set to go for initial testing.

    If you can remember your password from last year go ahead and log in and add a few test forecasts and comments.

    For new users/password resets please email snowcomp{-at-}panoramas.com.au with the resort you wish to tip for and your ski.com.au name and member number (we use a thread in here in case my site is offline so you have to have an account on the forums)

    I'll see if I can organise some imaginary snowfalls from Djon so I can test the scoring. The graph errors will remain until there is some data generated.

    I haven't had time to make any improvements yet but the existing code will do the job for the moment. I'll be working on things from time to time so don't panic if it's sometimes broken in these first couple of weeks.

    I'll be resetting everything in early June when the comp starts for real so none of the forecasts you enter now will count but I will retain any changes you make to your forecasters page. Snow hope still holds the prize for the most creative forecaster's page but remember if you break it, it's broken until I can fix it and you accept the consequences and don't post anything you wouldn't post here.

    I look forward to another exciting season and hopefully not too many arguments over snowfall reports. :doh:

    :thumbs:
     
    #12 AussieJimbo, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  13. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    People take it seriously enough as it is.

    [​IMG]

    Not sure if it's a good idea or not. Comments?
     
    #13 AussieJimbo, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. CP

    CP Hard Yards

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    Aj,

    Site seems to be down?

    :cheers:
     
  15. skibeaver

    skibeaver First Runs

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    I just want to say that I had a great time learning to forcast in the comp last year. Even though I stopped halve way through.

    Thanks to all the people that take the time to put it on! I really appriciate the time you put in!!!

    Bring on pleanty of snow this year. I can't wait for that 300cm base!
     
  16. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Worked ok for me just now.
     
    #16 AussieJimbo, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  17. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    :thumbs:
     
    #17 AussieJimbo, May 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    Legend AJ! :thumbs:

    What sort of prizes we talking about Frogbreath?

    Im all for prizes but I think it may cause more dramas when different resorts put up what some might call 'dodgy' reports...?
     
  19. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    Cant wait! as for prizes, isnt being on top enough? I do agree with Phanto it may cause more dramas then its worth, you all remember how #>*% off people get when their chosen resort doesn't match what they think fell.

    going for a Vic resort this year.
     
  20. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

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    Play for pride.....like me!
     
  21. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    It worked for you last year!
     
  22. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    I've got a few account requests. I'll get to them tomorrow evening.

    :cheers:
     
  23. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Another issue I'm considering is whether to allow forecasting for CP this year despite it's season/snow reports not starting until a week or two later than the rest of the resorts.

    I haven't yet decided if this would give these forecasters an advantage or disadvantage or how significant this would be. In some ways it depend on how the initial weeks of the season pan out.

    Would CP forecasters have an advantage in not having early season stuff ups in marginal conditions or do they miss out on nice point scoring opportunities from early season dumps. It's hard to say if this would be positive, negative or neutral.

    Any thoughts?
     
  24. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    if you could find someone who would be independant and report what fell for the period then they shouldn't be excluded. That is if someone wanted to take on the task.
     
  25. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    If I recall CP are pretty airy fairy about the amount of snow fallen in their reports. Im pretty sure you get days where they say 5-10cm or 20-30cm.
    Obviously you take the middle ground in those situations but you are guaranteed to get complaints.

    I say no but it doesnt worry me either way. Just thinking of your potential issues AJ.
     
  26. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Gee, not long to go... [​IMG]

    Regarding CP, I agree with Phanto. Their reports tend to be not very specific for a start. Whilst that is perhaps often appropriate to the real world as they might get different accumulations in different parts, it doesn't work to well where we need to score from one number.

    From memory they also tended to be a bit erratic in their posting of falls, sometimes missing days, or posting late, a bit like Baw Baw!

    At the end of the day we could take into account the fact that they gave ranges and just took the lower value, or perhaps the average, but anyone tipping for them would have to understand the possible implications for their tipping.

    Regarding them having a shorter season, that I think mainly means you have a slightly better chance of being lucky with your forecasts overall, but it may not make much difference over a whole season. eg. with less potential scoring days overall, one say 100% score will increase your overall score by a larger amount than somewhere with more scoring days. A similar situation occurs with mountains that do get less snow-days than others such as Baw Baw, Lake Mountain, Selwyn, and to some extent Buller. Over a whole season though it probably makes 2/5ths of bugger all difference...

    We are not trying to forecast the actual amount of snow to fall at a resort. Rather it is the amount that the resort will report for the 24hr period to around 6am each day. This fact has been used, particularly last year when for instance Thredbo only gave amounts in 5cm intervals, and stated that they only gave falls in 5cm intervals...

    ....except of course when they didn't! :rolleyes:

    Anyways, here's to a great season of snow! :cheers:
     
    #26 Djon, May 17, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    i'd love to see nosey get his predictions up there - ie whatever his model spits out as of june 10, as well as another nosey where he can update as he goes. that way the model's long range power can be demonstrated (refuted) as well as it's short term use....
     
  28. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    ps/ will all the inactive accounts be deleted this year? guys like boyataris and snd haven't been around for ages but their names are still in the comp....
     
  29. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    The old name help my self esteam when I have a bad week tipping
     
  30. quro

    quro First Runs

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    We all know about the 24hr snowfall measurements from our resorts on any given day can be highly suspect, physically imposssible or just not reported at all. We can define "reporting errors" as resort reports that do not represent the true conditions that a trained observer with reasonable instruments would report.

    [​IMG] What factors influence a forecaster's long-run comp scores at their particular resort.... :clown:
    #'TED'- Average Total Error Days in a season for the resort - A combination of incompetency & deception
    #'SOF'- Skill Of Forecaster (a long-run average daily score, between 0 & 1, without error effects)
    #'PLE'- Probability of forecaster getting lucky by scoring on an error day
    #'TSD'- Total Scoring Days ie. a day where the forecaster recieves a score after a forecast of some non-zero amount of snow was made for that day

    Obviously, without the reporting errors, the forecaster's score at the end of a long season is equal to their average daily score ie. directly represents their true skill... Here is how reporting errors can change scores away from this average...

    # [​IMG] Unlucky Error Score (UES)...ie. the score after you cop a bunch of zero days when your resort makes erroneous reports [​IMG]
    UES = [SOF*(TSD-(TED*(1-PLE)))] / [TSD]


    # :nerd: Estimated Final Score (EFS)...ie the final score due to both skill and reporting errors...
    EFS = UES + LES
     
    #30 quro, May 19, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  31. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Hi everyone, sorry I haven't created those new accounts yet. I'll do them in the next day or so.

    On CP, I'll leave them out again this year.
     
  32. quro

    quro First Runs

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    ran some test examples using estimates, it seems that if you average 40% score and are calling for a more reliable resort like hotham, - then you stand to lose more than you gain from the errors when they do happen..

    #on the flipside, if you average 20-25% and are forecasting for perisher then the errors may even slightly help you out overall...
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Haha nice work quro!
     
  34. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well a few of us have pleaded with Thredbo and Perisher to be more accurate and have been met with the usual level of enthusiasm.
     
  35. CP

    CP Hard Yards

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    AJ I emailed u about changing my password as ive got no idea of what it was last year!
     
  36. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Interesting conclusion quro but perconally I think there are too many random elements involved to make an accurate assesment of the impact of reporting errors.

    As Djon pointed out earlier, everyone needs to note that the aim of the comp is to predict the snowfall that will be reported by the resorts.

    I will get those IDs done soon. I'm locked in to looking after the comp for the whole season so I'm taking it a bit easy while I still can. [​IMG]

    :thumbs:
     
    #36 AussieJimbo, May 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  37. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    I still think that for days you pick 0cm and nothing falls you get 100%. Reason being you are forecasting no snow to fall. This way you are counted each and every day and not just when snow falls. You could then say that Djon for example sake forecasted correctly to the cm from four days out around 91% (rough guess) success. People who look at the results see 35% or so and think that is low when it is actually very good.
     
  38. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    I know what you mean but the trouble with that method is that someone who doesn't ever submit a forecast in the comp would end up with a score of over 50% (probably).

    It also ends up rewarding you with 100% when blind freddy could tell you there will be no snow but often less than 100% when you are skillfull enough to call nearly the correct snowfall when it does arrive, particularly in marginal conditions.
     
  39. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    perhaps the answer lies in an automatic "N/A" entry if you don't forecast it. To choose 0 cm you need to specify 0 cm and hence you score points for it. an N/A is completely wrong, regardless.

    of course, the shifty ones could go through the whole season up front and put in 0 cm for each day in case, but that would be lame....

    requires updating software i suppose...
     
  40. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    I just don't think predicting nothing when there's a big high parked over the snowfields should be worth the same as a spot on prediction of a snowfall amount.
     
  41. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    fiddle the formulas so that percentage = 2/3(sum(#cm predicted daily/#cm actual daily)/snow days) + 1/3(#no snow days predicted/#no snow days actual)

    or some such...

    starts getting too complicated. perhaps no snow days could be omitted from the calculation of percentages?
     
  42. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    They are already omitted, unless you wrongly predict snow.
     
    #42 AussieJimbo, May 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  43. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    Yep agree AJ
     
    #43 Phanto, May 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    I see your point AJ. [​IMG]
     
    #44 The Frog, May 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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  46. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    #46 AussieJimbo, May 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  47. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    Alright, I got un-lazy and completed a long needed update to the forecast entry page.

    :woohoo:

    Data entry is now integrated into the same format as the public forecast display page. This is cleaner and also finally allows you to see what result you are entering a postscript against.

    There is a minor bug (which was in the old page too) that prevents you entering data for the last two dates listed but otherwise I think it's working OK. Let me know how you go.

    :thumbs:
     
  48. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    Yes Im winning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  49. Phanto

    Phanto First Runs

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    Just tried to log in and got the followung?


    Phantom, forecasting for Perisher Blue.
    Predictions Query failed
     
  50. AussieJimbo

    AussieJimbo First Runs

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    :doh:

    Don't know why that would be. Works for me. I'll look into it this evening.

    Anyone else having the same problem?