2007 Snow Depth Prediction Market

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by jl, Oct 10, 2006.

  1. jl

    jl First Runs

    Oct 10, 2006
    Likes Received:
    I am researching predictive markets, and have created a Perisher (Spencer's Creek) Snow Depth Predictive Market.

    You can access the makret here (free registration required): http://www.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2252

    The prices represent the expected probability of each event, and will change as the market moves. For example, currently the price for the peak depth to be less than 1m is $8.43, which indicates a liklihood of 8.43%.

    If the final peak depth was less than 1m, then the 1m option would expire at $100, and the other options would expire at $0. IF you purchased the <1m option, you would then make a profit of the difference between $100 and whatever you paid for the less than 1m option.

    At the end of the season I will analyise the results to see if the wisdom of crowds is better than a simple statistical prediction.

    Best of luck - remember you can buy & sell any stock at any time, taking profits and cutting losses.

    Who knows - if we can do something that predicts long range snow depth better than just guessing or using statistics, some people might find this information u$eful.

    <em>-- JL </em>
    <em>Please delete if this post does not belong here.</em>
    #1 jl, Oct 10, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  2. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Mar 3, 2000
    Likes Received:
    Sounds interesting... I've always thought of trying some sort of betting, or market model for the snow tipping competition, but that would be perhaps too complex. This concept, in trying to determine just one value seems much more accessible... [​IMG]

    I think some of the main problems with this sort of market at this time of year are little interest, and the fact that trying to forecast that far out and for a maximum snow depth is generally considered a 'dark art'.

    On a related note I think there is a general consensus around here that a better 'measure' of a season is not the peak depth, but the something like meter days (ie area of the snow depth graph). That may not matter though, as generally people do 'measure' a season by the maximum depth, even if it was reached after one big dump, and r*ined out the folling week... :rolleyes:

    Having said all that though I think it would be a fun thing to play with, once I get my head around how a market like this works...

    I'll have to gaze into my crystal ball and 'drop in some dough' while the prices are good. [​IMG]


    Oh, and welcome jl!
    #2 Djon, Oct 10, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013