2017-2018 SHEM CYCLONE SEASON

Discussion in 'Weather' started by J_-W_-X, Sep 29, 2017.

  1. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    SIO is already producing tropical systems with invest 92s .I'm Expecting
    a season of a few v/strong systems across the shem basins this upcoming
    season.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No real major anoms as far as Northern Aus is concerned.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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  4. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    NCEP ens hinting @ tropics switching on in Oct week2.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS progs a small Trop Dep originating in the Timor Sea/JBG @300hrs (lol). Shear/steering winds looks likely to kill it IMO.
    Just FYI, I guess.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    What's the earliest we have had a TC I'm Aus?
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Raquel came close. Extra-seasonally in July 2015... But never impacted the mainland.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    -BoM
     
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  9. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Flaky MJO at the moment.
    Models pointing to a bit of a disturbance around Solomon Sea/Eastern PNG over the next few days. It's got some good rainfall anyway.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM's Seasonal outlook is in:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
    Chance of more tropical cyclones than average


     
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  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    that's better than I was expecting.
     
  13. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    lots of heat built up in the spac,when a monsoon trough does eventually setup
    over the spitz. With the right ridging in place we may see another fijian express
    this season.


    [​IMG]
    That heat is going nowhere soon ,high octane for cyclones.
     
  14. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    GFS is picking up on k/wave signal thus the reason for spinning up a disturbance
    out in spac. low confidence without EC support

    [​IMG]




    The more interesting feature is the wwb across the indo with the two cells
    on either side of the equator spawned by a classic west moving equatorial
    robssy/wave
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Good insight, thanks.
     
  16. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    Ya welcome i like your input and enthusiasm with the tropics.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    beach

    My mate at Mission Beach won't be happy about that.
     
  18. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    Understand why ....I'm thinking a similar season to 2005-2006 @ this point.
     
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  19. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    [​IMG]
    EC showing a little bit of interest now over the tropics.
     
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  20. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    Both ens are modeling a tropical low over nth qlds tracking W.
    Both are also giving perth a touch up with a complex low.
    Gotta luv aussie weather extremes over the continent
     
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  21. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    A bit early for anything to happen in my neck of the woods yet but stranger things have happened.
     
  22. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    Every year there is always 1-2 lows that don't develop but they cross the nt
    over land. They never get named but they are land-phoons.

    With the mjo moving into the maritime it's a chance for a tropical low.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    MJO exponentially heating up in our region now. The strongest signal since last summer. Virtually just missing the cyclongenesis ingredient.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X New Member

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    There's no doubt the EPS has a closed off the low in GOC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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