Cyclone 2017-2018 Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Season

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
176
212
43
SIO is already producing tropical systems with invest 92s .I'm Expecting
a season of a few v/strong systems across the shem basins this upcoming
season.

WTNg6Sr.png
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
176
212
43

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Flaky MJO at the moment.
Models pointing to a bit of a disturbance around Solomon Sea/Eastern PNG over the next few days. It's got some good rainfall anyway.
rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_5.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BoM's Seasonal outlook is in:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
Chance of more tropical cyclones than average
2017-10-09_10-25-42.jpg


Typical number of cyclones likely for Australia

A typical number of tropical cyclones are likely to form in the Australian region this season. The season, which runs from November to April, typically sees between 10 and 13 cyclones in Australian waters, with around four of these crossing the coast. Australia has always seen at least one tropical cyclone cross the coast each season.

This outlook is influenced by:
  • ENSO-neutral to weak La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and
  • slightly warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia.
During ENSO-neutral years, the first tropical cyclone to make landfall over Australia typically occurs in late December. In La Niña years, the first cyclone landfall typically occurs earlier, around the first week of December.

Tropical cyclones that do not make landfall can still have a significant impact on coastal communities, through heavy rainfall, storm surges, and large waves.
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
176
212
43
lots of heat built up in the spac,when a monsoon trough does eventually setup
over the spitz. With the right ridging in place we may see another fijian express
this season.


SoTm0Nz.gif

That heat is going nowhere soon ,high octane for cyclones.
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
176
212
43
Flaky MJO at the moment.
Models pointing to a bit of a disturbance around Solomon Sea/Eastern PNG over the next few days. It's got some good rainfall anyway.
rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_5.png
GFS is picking up on k/wave signal thus the reason for spinning up a disturbance
out in spac. low confidence without EC support

g3DKt6U.png





The more interesting feature is the wwb across the indo with the two cells
on either side of the equator spawned by a classic west moving equatorial
robssy/wave
pJwPhGL.png


ZCH0OR2.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
GFS is picking up on k/wave signal thus the reason for spinning up a disturbance
out in spac. low confidence without EC support

g3DKt6U.png





The more interesting feature is the wwb across the indo with the two cells
on either side of the equator spawned by a classic west moving equatorial
robssy/wave
pJwPhGL.png


ZCH0OR2.png
Good insight, thanks.
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,226
8,053
563
60
Cairns, Queensland
lots of heat built up in the spac,when a monsoon trough does eventually setup
over the spitz. With the right ridging in place we may see another fijian express
this season.That heat is going nowhere soon ,high octane for cyclones.
beach

My mate at Mission Beach won't be happy about that.
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,226
8,053
563
60
Cairns, Queensland
tFuYHpx.png



vQaPWDV.png



Both ens are modeling a tropical low over nth qlds tracking W.
Both are also giving perth a touch up with a complex low.
Gotta luv aussie weather extremes over the continent
A bit early for anything to happen in my neck of the woods yet but stranger things have happened.
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
176
212
43
A bit early for anything to happen in my neck of the woods yet but stranger things have happened.
Every year there is always 1-2 lows that don't develop but they cross the nt
over land. They never get named but they are land-phoons.

With the mjo moving into the maritime it's a chance for a tropical low.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
CMC (with it's new Tropical upgrade last month) and EC both in agreement of a TD forming South of Indonesia next week.
GFS/GEFS now the outlier with it's formation kicking off this week. Nonetheless, it's looking to heat up in the NW region over the next 7-10days.

Invest 95S set-up:

GEFS Ensemble
95S_gefs_latest.png


CMC says it'll wriggle around Indo for 4-5 days before hitting it's straps, so to speak. I am interested to see how CMC tracks with this one. The TC upgrade last month is intended to make it one of the best deterministic TC models available.
95S_geps_latest.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BOM
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 20 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present. A weak tropical low may develop in a trough just south of Indonesia over the next couple days and then linger or move slowly west. It is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the short term, but the risk increases for next weekend.

AXS hardly seems interested at the moment at least not in it's LR, out until Wednesday.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
WA BOM
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 10.4S 111.0E, approximately 240 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to move slowly westwards during Friday and over the weekend before shifting back towards the east early next week, persisting over waters south of Java. This tropical low has only a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and early next week, well north of the Australian Continent.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
We now have a secondary system in the Indian Ocean; Invest 96S. Located well off the coast of Sumatra.
Models suggest it gains a little more than 95S. Pretty out there though.
Might get interesting if it wanders into 95S next week.
96S_gefs_latest.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BoM increases likelihood of TC development over the coming days.
It will be interesting to understand what influence Agung eruption would have on the region, if any.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:
Low
Monday:
Moderate
Tuesday:
Moderate
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Deterministic models suggest we’ll see the tropical depression maybe develop as a TC and sink southward into the NW maritime region by the end of the week.
BoM suggests this is also quite possible.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Weak MJO re-entering the Maritime Cont phase (our region) for the 4th time in 90 days.
A merge of Invest 95S & 96S looking likely.

Supportive conditions look ok from around NW of Karatha
IDY00007.gif


BoM update for 95S.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 27 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 30 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low lies north of the region near 9S 110E, approximately 110 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected develop over the coming days, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Tuesday or Wednesday whilst remaining south of Java. It may enter the region later on Tuesday but more likely Wednesday after taking a turn to the south towards open waters well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Moderate
Thursday:
High
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
The Canuck likes the Indian Ocean (and associated seas) for some TD activity over the next week or so. Albeit with little severity.
That sucker cradled by the JB Gulf on the WA/NT border is worth watching. Sea temps are good to go right there - CMC likes it for some action next week (31C, or +1.5C anoms)
gem_z500_mslp_ind_31.png
 
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stormhunter

Hard Yards
Nov 25, 2017
164
216
43
IDJ22001 (1).gif
Has been named in its regional AOR.
IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta
BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLON INFORMATION
Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
On: 02:04 WIB 28/11/2017
Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
IDJ23201.png

H08_EH_Indonesia.png

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 03:50 UTC 28 November 2017

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA 999 hPa was within 15 nautical miles of 8,5 S 111,2 E moving east southeast at 2 knots.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected to decrease to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 28 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 8,7 S 111,9 E
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 29 November: Within 75 nautical miles of 9,1 S 111,9 E
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BoM on the bandwagon, now. Alluding to a merge of the two systems. Should get interesting.
IDW60284.png

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Cempaka was recently located north of the region near 8.7S 111.5E, approximately 40 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected move slowly southeast before taking a more south to southwesterly track later on Wednesday. Its likely to enter the Western Region on Wednesday evening and may still be at cyclone intensity whilst continuing in a south to southwesterly motion towards open waters well north of the Australian Continent.

Towards the end of the week, this system may interact with another tropical low (03U) that is expected to approach from the northwest (see system details below). It's not yet clear how these systems will affect one another and its not impossible that the two systems merge into one. Regardless of the outcome, there remains a High likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region from Thursday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:
Moderate
Thursday:
High
Friday:
High
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Back to TD now for Cempaka
OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 06:04 UTC 29 November 2017

SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Depression CEMPAKA 1003 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 9,9 S 110,0 E moving west southwest at 15 knots.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected to decrease to 20 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 29 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 9,8 S 111,3 E
Central pressure 1005 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 20 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 30 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 10,7 S 111,1 E
Central pressure 1005 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 20 knots near centre.
Otherwise, not much more than some wind swell and rain.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA has caused :
- Moderate to heavy rain at southern Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, and Lombok.
- Strong winds up to 20 knot at southern Java .
- Significant wave height 1.25 - 2.5 m on southern waters of East Java to NTB, Indian Ocean south of Bali to NTB.
- Significant wave height 2.5 - 4 m on southern waters of Banten to Central Java, Indian Ocean Southern of Java.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Meanwhile, 96S is starting to play up a bit, and looking more organised than Cempaka.
SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Depression TD96S 1003 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 8,5 S 101,0 E moving east at 4 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected to decrease to 40 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 29 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 8,9 S 101,0 E
Central pressure 1002 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 30 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 9,5 S 102,8 E
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 29 November 2017.
Here it is Top, Mid-Left of frame, SW of the tip of Java.
IDE00124.201711291030.jpg


IDJ22106.gif
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,001
36,746
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Looks like Dahlia (the thoughts of reading the old landlord's name makes me shudder), should take a right after Christmas Island, but looking somewhat benign at this point.
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 05:39 UTC 30 November 2017

SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DAHLIA 997 hPa was within 20 nautical miles of 8,8 S 105,9 E moving east at 11 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected stable in 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 30 November: Within 50 nautical miles of 9,5 S 107,6 E
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 01 Desember: Within 80 nautical miles of 10,3 S 108,9 E
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 30 November 2017.
IDJ23201.png

IDJ22001.gif
 

stormhunter

Hard Yards
Nov 25, 2017
164
216
43
UZsEDGq.jpg

The curved banding has been glowing but as shown on this
above graphic The intense storms have not been able into
wrap. Need a full glowing cyan ring around the core for R
I.


There has been some se shear over the system impeding the
deep convection from wrapping fully around core and chopping
off the outflow. If this sorts it self out i still think a very strong TC
is a real possibility.

That said this system dont look to shabby.
 
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