2017-2018 Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by J_-W_-X, Sep 29, 2017.

  1. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    SIO is already producing tropical systems with invest 92s .I'm Expecting
    a season of a few v/strong systems across the shem basins this upcoming
    season.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No real major anoms as far as Northern Aus is concerned.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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  4. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    NCEP ens hinting @ Aus tropics switching on in Oct week2.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS progs a small Trop Dep originating in the Timor Sea/JBG @300hrs (lol). Shear/steering winds looks likely to kill it IMO.
    Just FYI, I guess.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    What's the earliest we have had a TC I'm Aus?
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Raquel came close. Extra-seasonally in July 2015... But never impacted the mainland.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    -BoM
     
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  9. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Flaky MJO at the moment.
    Models pointing to a bit of a disturbance around Solomon Sea/Eastern PNG over the next few days. It's got some good rainfall anyway.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM's Seasonal outlook is in:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
    Chance of more tropical cyclones than average


     
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  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    that's better than I was expecting.
     
  13. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    lots of heat built up in the spac,when a monsoon trough does eventually setup
    over the spitz. With the right ridging in place we may see another fijian express
    this season.


    [​IMG]
    That heat is going nowhere soon ,high octane for cyclones.
     
  14. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    GFS is picking up on k/wave signal thus the reason for spinning up a disturbance
    out in spac. low confidence without EC support

    [​IMG]




    The more interesting feature is the wwb across the indo with the two cells
    on either side of the equator spawned by a classic west moving equatorial
    robssy/wave
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Good insight, thanks.
     
  16. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    Ya welcome i like your input and enthusiasm with the tropics.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    beach

    My mate at Mission Beach won't be happy about that.
     
  18. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    Understand why ....I'm thinking a similar season to 2005-2006 @ this point.
     
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  19. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    EC showing a little bit of interest now over the tropics.
     
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  20. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    Both ens are modeling a tropical low over nth qlds tracking W.
    Both are also giving perth a touch up with a complex low.
    Gotta luv aussie weather extremes over the continent
     
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  21. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    A bit early for anything to happen in my neck of the woods yet but stranger things have happened.
     
  22. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    Every year there is always 1-2 lows that don't develop but they cross the nt
    over land. They never get named but they are land-phoons.

    With the mjo moving into the maritime it's a chance for a tropical low.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    MJO exponentially heating up in our region now. The strongest signal since last summer. Virtually just missing the cyclongenesis ingredient.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    There's no doubt the EPS has a closed off the low in GOC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. J_-W_-X

    J_-W_-X Active Member

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    Low pressure getting some rotation off NW WA.

    [​IMG]
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS staying with things firing up in the deep NW.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    CMC (with it's new Tropical upgrade last month) and EC both in agreement of a TD forming South of Indonesia next week.
    GFS/GEFS now the outlier with it's formation kicking off this week. Nonetheless, it's looking to heat up in the NW region over the next 7-10days.

    Invest 95S set-up:

    GEFS Ensemble
    [​IMG]

    CMC says it'll wriggle around Indo for 4-5 days before hitting it's straps, so to speak. I am interested to see how CMC tracks with this one. The TC upgrade last month is intended to make it one of the best deterministic TC models available.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM
    AXS hardly seems interested at the moment at least not in it's LR, out until Wednesday.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    WA BOM
    Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones:

    A weak tropical low lies near 10.4S 111.0E, approximately 240 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to move slowly westwards during Friday and over the weekend before shifting back towards the east early next week, persisting over waters south of Java. This tropical low has only a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and early next week, well north of the Australian Continent.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    We now have a secondary system in the Indian Ocean; Invest 96S. Located well off the coast of Sumatra.
    Models suggest it gains a little more than 95S. Pretty out there though.
    Might get interesting if it wanders into 95S next week.
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    It's warm
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM increases likelihood of TC development over the coming days.
    It will be interesting to understand what influence Agung eruption would have on the region, if any.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Deterministic models suggest we’ll see the tropical depression maybe develop as a TC and sink southward into the NW maritime region by the end of the week.
    BoM suggests this is also quite possible.
     
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  34. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Christmas Island might get a bit wet
    [​IMG]
     
  35. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Shear low but SST's not super warm to the south.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Weak MJO re-entering the Maritime Cont phase (our region) for the 4th time in 90 days.
    A merge of Invest 95S & 96S looking likely.

    Supportive conditions look ok from around NW of Karatha
    [​IMG]

    BoM update for 95S.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The Canuck likes the Indian Ocean (and associated seas) for some TD activity over the next week or so. Albeit with little severity.
    That sucker cradled by the JB Gulf on the WA/NT border is worth watching. Sea temps are good to go right there - CMC likes it for some action next week (31C, or +1.5C anoms)
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    Tropical cyclone structure.
     
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  39. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    Has been named in its regional AOR.
    IDJ21030
    METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta
    BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLON INFORMATION
    Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
    On: 02:04 WIB 28/11/2017
    Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM on the bandwagon, now. Alluding to a merge of the two systems. Should get interesting.
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Back to TD now for Cempaka
    Otherwise, not much more than some wind swell and rain.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Meanwhile, 96S is starting to play up a bit, and looking more organised than Cempaka.
    Here it is Top, Mid-Left of frame, SW of the tip of Java.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  45. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    cdo is expending and has very cold tops with a embedded llcc
    this system is intensifying. The classic closed fist look.



    TC Dahlia
    http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxxt01.adrm..txt

    likely the next runs will be a somewhat deeper system.

    [​IMG]
    If you look hard to top of this rb you can see the embedded core. When the
    convention wraps fully around it, its game over a (severe cyclone)
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks like Dahlia (the thoughts of reading the old landlord's name makes me shudder), should take a right after Christmas Island, but looking somewhat benign at this point.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  47. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    [​IMG]
    The curved banding has been glowing but as shown on this
    above graphic The intense storms have not been able into
    wrap. Need a full glowing cyan ring around the core for R
    I.


    There has been some se shear over the system impeding the
    deep convection from wrapping fully around core and chopping
    off the outflow. If this sorts it self out i still think a very strong TC
    is a real possibility.

    That said this system dont look to shabby.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    And correct me if I am wrong, but potentially the 2nd TC to impact Cilacap in a week too...
     
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  49. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    Needs upgrading 50kt pass today.
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. stormhunter

    stormhunter New Member

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    upgraded
    [​IMG]
     
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