2017 Winter Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans1000, Mar 11, 2017.

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  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So how's winter going to unravel this year?
    El Niño?
    Lake Eyre? The birds that go to it?
    Some awesome algorithm made by a certain Brisbane hydrologist?

    We don't exactly at the moment. So guessing time!

    CFS is currently forecasting a higher pressure anomaly in June, improving over winter to a weak month average low pressure anomaly. And Spring looks good with some strong lower pressure anomalies in the monthly average. These are the corresponding 500hPa height anomalies from CFS.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Late winter? Well CanSIPS and NMME are forecasting differently, so don't hold your breath for an accurate answer. One thing's for sure, it will be interesting.
     
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  2. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Lot's of predictions
     
  3. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I predict winter...............
    will arrive
    there will be the constant battle of high v low , high will win some and low will win some
    some will acclaim a certain hydrologist from Brisbane to be the new messiah
    others will scorn that same hydrologist
    we will have snow in the hills and people will be happy
    people will whine that there isn't enough snow
    the lifts will open and there will be crowds on weekends
    people will whine about the crowds on weekends
    there will be the gnashing of teeth when windhold events happen
    there will be those that whine just because they can
    these and a million other things will come to pass

    but winter will arrive and I for one will be damned happy when it does :):):):):):):):)
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    And get a new thermometer for the shed.
     
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  5. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Got a whole new setup , cost a pretty penny let me tell you. All the bells and whistles in a private weather station setup:)
     
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  6. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  7. Hemsley

    Hemsley Dedicated Member

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    Not really into weather charts and studying patterns or data. I normally go off gut feel, or walking around the back yard in my undies as a gadge. Going off what I'm feeling right now, I predict a 3metre plus reading at Spencer's Creek in the first week of August.
     
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not a great thing.
     
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  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    EC This is just a look @ the pattern EPS is suggesting over next month,
    basically a train of fronts/ with cut offs slamming VIC.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    @CC apologise's for the long range plots just pointing to a pattern.
     
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  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Their awesome IMO, no need to apologise.
     
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  11. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Fellow interested skiers / boarders, alpine aficionados ...... and weather gurus (I definitely do not fall into the latter category). When it is all said and done, do you folk look back and extrapolate the predictions against the actuals? Any history on say the snow predictions or weather forecasts against what you felt would happen? No challenge on my part, I'm genuinely interested to understand this stuff. Cheers
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    FHS ... as it sure looks dog at the moment. Need a good May/June ahead of an elnino should it appear in mid winter.

    for what it's worth - i'm leaning towards a 2014 year. stunning to start with before going to the dogs in August.
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I look back on my seasonal predictions and my long term forecasts as a whole(on my blog in the bio). I write the reasoning for my forecasts down, and once the season is done, find what went wrong. I find the errors and problems and make solutions for them. And then I put those into practice. Nobody can write the perfect forecast, but small steps to make them better will help a lot.

    As far as Australian snow forecasters go, The Frog and Grasshopper make no effort to review their mistakes in their forecasts from the public side of things. Gerg and I think that Mr Peterson guy review their predictions vs observations. People here and on other sites have found the flaws to my long term forecasts and I definitely take them on board. Opensnow, a big American snow forecaster, openly reviews their seasonal forecasts and others too, which I think is very good and gives me more respect for them.

    I think Gerg has a graph of his model's predictions vs observations. I can't speak for the other guys on this site, but there's my 2 cents. Great question btw!

    P.S.
    And I also review my personal decisions on a monthly basis. If you don't review and reflect on your mistakes, there is no hope of your life getting any better except by random luck.
     
  14. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Jellybeans - Nice reply... please know that I was not questioning anyones insights or expertise.... As a novice on the deeper insights regarding weather forecasting beyond what I see on the weather channel or from my window, was just interested on the science of forecasting compared to actual events over time. Hope that makes sense? Keep those forecasts coming..its interesting...! Cheers
     
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  15. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    What does that religious fraudster say? (Forgotten his name - the one who has babble verses posted all over his forecasts.)
    Well, really, we don't need to know what he said about this winter. Every winter according to him, will be the best ever.
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    John Moore. He retired.
     
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  17. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    I think it's time that southern Vic had a half decent season. Last winter was horrible.
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Can we have max snow depth during the ski season this year ?

    Thnx in advance

    DSNS
     
  19. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Your opinion is worth the = to all others hear. Myself atm not buying into another nino so soon.
     
  20. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    What gurus? why would am's bother to extrapolate who has time to go
    back and extrapolate cm fallen in actual forecast hours. Do you have or
    the code to cal.
     
  21. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    My punt = Lots of early frost/ ground cooling. 1 pineapple in June, none in July, 2 in later part of August and a painfully dry September. Tropopause will be gracious to us in July.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    OK then...

    Buller will be first to open 27-28May after running their containerized snowmaker day and night.

    Perisher will open on the QBW after running snowmaking on the front valley.

    There will be a good dump of snow during the first half of July which will allow the other resorts to open with the assistance of further snow making.

    The next decent dump of snow will occur in August.

    It will be rainy and windy during inter-schools.

    Several decent snow events will happen in August-September and max snow depth of 188cm will occur at Spencers Creek on Sep 21.

    Cold fronts in September-October will bring rain followed by snow top ups that don't replace what was washed away.

    Normo will ski past the 1 million vm mark after telling everyone he is just aiming to ski every day and he isn't worried about vms.

    Most resort areas will be closed by the October long weekend. Perisher just scrapes through to the long weekend.

    The backcountry guys break out their AT/tele gear and ski until the end of November.
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Isn't that just the summary of the average season? Except the new container snow making thing
     
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  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Yep, I'm predicting an average season.
     
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    so better than a crap season. it's generally a 1:3 chance for a fizzer season - 1:3 for average - 1:3 for epic.

    which reduces to 2:3 for good enough.
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    He's predicting a great crappy season which we all know and love.

    There will be pow days but you gotta storm chase, ski the worst of the weather and poor viz days to get the biccies.
    Pray for wind hold on the chairs (and the ropes to go out at Blue Cow) and then go play in the trees.
    Look at the spaces not the places.
    p.s don't complain about the rocks they where there first .
    It's a good day if you don't hit any. ;)
     
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  28. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Apart from the first statement it's situation normal.
     
  29. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Dont know if any of you have read to the signals and the noise..
    Currently working thru it and it produces some thought provoking ideas that can be applied to snow forecasting
     
  30. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    If not much change's over the two months i see a good season ahead.
    It may only take one good tasman low to break records and it due this
    season.
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    May not be in the book but if the white cockies are on the ground in Berridale it's snowing in them hills. :)
     
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  32. AJS

    AJS Well-Known Member

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    Might only get down for 2 trips in early Aug this year (and a potential 3rd in Sep), so hopecasting some big falls around then... And plenty more for everyone else's trips of course!
     
  33. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    Selwyn bought a slushy maker as well.
     
  34. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Doesn't matter if 2m falls in June , 3m in July , 2m in August and a top up metre falls in September - there will still be those people who will say we didn't get enough and it was only an average season in their view.
    What will happen will happen when it happens and we should all be happy that it damned well happened at all. For me .............I don't really care how deep it is as long as I can ski on it when I want to ski on it ( late June to mid August).

    As for a prediction over and above my earlier prediction.........................peak depth ( which really doesn't mean a great deal to me) of somewhere between 175cm and 195cm which should be plenty for everyone but it wont be..........you can take that to the bank.

    SMSkier - I make my living from the dirt I own near Tumbarumba so yeah I am constantly quantifying actual against forecast , if I didn't I would go bankrupt pretty quickly.........do I post my good/bad results on here.........not very often although I don't mind admitting I got it wrong but my real concern is why I had a good/bad result.
     
  35. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Let's get this straight once and for all. I never contested the credibility of anyone! I simply asked Jellybeans an innocent question to which he responded (and to which I thanked him). Simple as that. I never mentioned specific snow depths etc. I queried about predictions and actuals in the context of the weather forum! For reference, my farm is in the rain shadow of the main range and depends on decent rainfall. It can piss down in Jindy and we miss it - 3mm in this current rain event. Same as many others! In respect to the snow depth, I ski locally probably as much as many folks on the various forums and to your point, the depth is irrelevant if there is sufficient cover. All the best.
     
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  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Apologies from me too, I left out something very important from my season prediction post.

    At some stage this year I will infuriate a certain felis catus and be told off in the weather forum (again).
     
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  37. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    SMSkier , I didn't think you were contesting anyone's forecasting credibility , far from it as I read your post. As far as snowcasting............my credibility isn't outstanding and I certainly don't hold myself up as a guru , more an interested observer , interested mostly because of precip/frost events that are part and parcel of winter that do affect my livelihood. I only threw in my snow totals as an aside and if you look at them probably 80% of seasons fit that range anyway.
    I am sorry you missed the rain over the past 36 hours , we on the western side of the range got significant totals ( mine was 63mm) which was the first real rain since mid November.
     
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  38. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Pleased you folk received some much needed rain! It all helps. Cheers.
     
  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Latest SOI is showing faily typical collapse back into neutral zone - the atmospheric condition would seem to preclude an El Nino actually developing this year.

    This could go similar to 2014 - with BOM the first one to give up once the early Austral Autumn data started to get worked into the models.

    Long Paddock shows where SOI is going:
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

    And look at the 90 day numbers - flat all the way through. Only the 30 day SOI has given weight to an El Nino.

    Next ENSO update on Mar 28th might see the first downgrade by BOM.
     
  41. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    He was widely out of range when it came to the latest election
     
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Atmosphere will not allow an El Niño to occur in it's current state.
     
  43. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Neutral ENSO could mean a decent year... just saying...
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Quite right!
     
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  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  46. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    meanwhile, up north, the lake effect is just getting started.


    [​IMG]
     
  47. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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    Tough to predict in my book. We can go from a little snow coming to suddenly a change in conditions and it turns out to be 30cm. Wait and see.
     
  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  49. Falls expat

    Falls expat Dedicated Member

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    In the last couple of months there has been a lot of Met chatter particularly in the USA about potential El Nino return, mainly from some aggressive model forecasts and also the recent warm El Nino like SSTS off the Pacific coasts of South America. However, for some reason most people have ignored the cool deep anomaly in the mid tropical Pacific.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

    This clearly shows an emerging cool anomaly which will mean any potential Nino will be at the very least delayed and probably more than likely not happen at all.

    Sometimes you can get lost in anomaly graphics and ignore the actual temperatures and if you look carefully at the actual temp evolution here

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

    You will notice that temps along the S American coast have cooled rapidly indicating upwelling of cold water associated with more normal or La Nina like conditions.

    850 hPa wind anomalies have remained consistently +ve in the western and central tropical Pacific as well

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/uv850-30d.gif

    This can only help the upwelling off cool deep water in the region.

    Therefore heading into this winter it looks to me that we enter the JJA period with neutral ENSO conditions and I think this normally means reasonable snowfalls statistically. Couple this with the very cool SSTs to the W or SW of Western Australia,

    http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/sst/sstanom_hires.latest.aus.png

    this should favour higher pressure in this region and if so there should be more tendency for downstream troughing likely in the Tasman or SE Australia region which is good for winter storm snowfalls.

    As always though a lot depends on moisture availablility from the tropical NW interacting with the polar weather fronts and this remains uncertain, although there has been a consistent feed of moisture from there this summer so perhaps this may continue.

    Lastly, as a working Met who specialises in forecasting for the week 1 and beyond forecasting, I look at climate, seasonal and subseasonal models regularly and they all have two things that stand out. One is they have a warm bias and the other is they are nearly always nothing like outturn and if they do then it is more likely luck rather than skill. You are much better off looking at longer term cycles like the MJO or SST anomalies to get a better chance of forecasting beyond week 1.
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I was getting to the climate drivers next time.
    But seriously thanks for the advice. Very Appreciated.