2017 Winter Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Mar 11, 2017.

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  1. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Part of me thinks this year could be like 1989. April 1989 was very wet, it's two years after a similar ElNino, there's a low Antarctic Sea Ice extent, and it's the year following a largely wet and warm year.

    What was 1989 like? Slow to get going (although late-June had some extremely cold minimums), a dry and cool July, but it went bonkers in August. Mt Buffalo had a Metre of snow at the end of that month. But it'll probably turn out to be something totally different....
     
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  2. SAL

    SAL One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    He hadn't been updating his blog all year...

    Last post was 28th April and the one before that was 28th September.
     
    #54 DidSurfNowSki, May 1, 2017
    Last edited: May 1, 2017
  5. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    he is onto it now (asked him last week about it)... needs to update a lot of his data feeds as i understand it.
     
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  7. SAL

    SAL One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Best amateur snow forecaster going around IMO.
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is there a better 'professional'?
     
  10. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    looking over the boards on this site, i think POW_hungry has his measure as a routine snow forecaster.
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That new fella aint too shabby either.
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we are talking about a seasonal snow forecaster. Currently that goes to Gerg.

    Defnitely not saying that POW is a bad forecaster though.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who's that?
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The one that used to have the high sucrose avatar .
     
  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are some fantastic forecasters here, but I don't recall season predictions being what they do.

    I'm not suggesting the couldn't though
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still got a high sucrose name though;)
    But your predictions are pretty good too.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    May 16 for the season starter.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I count at least 3 likely nodes that could almost have that served to you on a silver platter.
     
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  19. Canbat

    Canbat Hard Yards

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    I'm not willing to make any predictions, but I've got $544 on "It'll Be a Good Season".
     
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  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can we have an index to vote on each day - plotting seasonal pessimism versus optimism. Something like you tried a few years ago. It was fun and created another form of site engagement.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching the forecasters on the sky weather channel just now..... they are suggesting 20 to 40 cms for tassie above 1500 metres this Saturday / Sunday??
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably not the right thread, but 20-30cm is very possible, IMO.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Current predictions from the main seasonal snow forecasters.
    Still waiting for a snow depth from the Frog and Mr Peterson.

    Is there a consensus among the guys here? Time to issue the 'Dung Beetle Forecast' perhaps.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Move it on up.
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    #78 Jellybeans, May 16, 2017
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
  29. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    In the last paragraph his final prediction is a snow depth which follows the last 10 year average of 173.3cm
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes fair point. That 207cm figure is based on 1954-2016 figures. Perhaps one based on the last decade is more accurate, given current circumstances.

    But his figure is still over 10cm higher than the Grasshopper and Gerg.
     
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  31. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    I have never looked @ these guys. I guess you have jelly and in depth.
    If they base on enso we know that no event is ever a mirror image of past
    events.

    As you pointed to using past decades data as a measure would not reflect
    what to expect now and into the future.Global mean temps are considerably
    warmer in this decade. Volcanic active decades is another subject as well..
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without getting the mods too mad, I think this guy (Bruce A Peterson) hasn't explained the progression of the climate over the past couple of decades and certainly doesn't mention climate drivers, both ENSO and co, as well as explaining decadal trends. He acknowledges the trends, but doesn't explain them or show their source in the atmosphere. This doesn't help people trying to learn how climate prediction works.

    I sent him several emails asking him to explain his logic, never returned any of them. Analogs should be used with extreme care in association with climate drivers, not as a substitute for them. This guy just uses analogs.
     
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  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    You need to read some of Gerg's old posts. He explains it very well ;)
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't worry I already have, just a few more questions that can really only be answered by Peterson himself. I am also aware that Gerg doesn't like his predictions? Does anyone even know why he left?
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forum attrition.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry if I am asking a dumb question, but what does forum attrition mean please?
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    People come and people go.
     
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I wonder how many times you'll hear this theory come into play this winter:

    "Oh it was a bumper season in USA / Canada this year so it must mean that it will be a good season here in Oz"

    Yeah, good on ya.

    Meanwhile, IMO it will be a below average Oz season this year saved by snow making
     
  39. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    Already heard that one a bit around town :rolleyes:

    I have an extremely little scientific knowledge, but I've been in the mountains for a while and watched the weather with a skier's interest, and I'm getting 2005 vibes.
     
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  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    So long as it isn't 2006 vibes...
     
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  41. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    The 2006 autumn was very different. A couple of big dumps, very frosty, cold nights.

    That said there's probably no correlation between autumn weather and winter snowfalls, apart from the vibe
     
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  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    We've had a few dustings/small drops so far but that was quickly followed by warmer periods of weather

    Still stand by my below average season call - saved once again by loads of snow making
     
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  43. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Farmers intuition ( which is basically watching domestic herds and local flora/fauna ) with the add on of some science ( ground temps via probes at -100 mm and - 200mm on my property (709 - 832m asl ) are telling me its all set up at this stage for something around average , maybe slightly lower rather than slightly higher. Same intuition is saying an early spring/summer so I guess the end length of the season will be shorter.
    On that basis my guess would be 160 - 175 cm.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The chart above is a dud, although it conveys a clear message. There is an analog wave in there somewhere that gonna start bending back upwards (upwards and onward). I just don't see how a wee bit of CO2 in ppm can change the behaviors of the ATM and stop that much fun. Seems like a hoax to me.
     
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  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    He got sick of spending time on a supposedly-scientific sub-forum with climate science deniers.
     
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  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Whats is a Climate Science Denier? I think climate is a fairly open question that continues to be researched. There are deterministic models and non deterministic models. I am non deterministic kind of ??. :whistle:

    You can't say that one parameter can determine climate... That seems like a fact to me. thats all.:zzz:
     
  48. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Climate scientists simply add the probability of an event happening to the effects of that event, if it were to happen. You get an assessment of risk. The consensus is that there is a relatively high chance of significant warming that would have vast negative consequences. But the weather forum isn't the appropriate place for this.

    boom
     
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  49. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Indian Ocean Dipole looks decidedly +ve (which means poor precipitation in SE Australia). Antarctica is rather toasty at present (3degC+ anomaly yesterday).

    I predict a dry and very mediocre start to winter. IMO.
     
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  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yep - agreed @Hermon
     
  51. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You make a good logical point there Hermon.
    I like your post , but not the content.:(
    Think we all agree we will be at the mercy of MJO and a couple of random lusty big fronts from the Southern Ocean and beyond.
    Normal programming has been resumed.
     
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