2017 Winter Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Mar 11, 2017.

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  1. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Despite the slow start this winter, I'm still rather optimistic for later on in the season. Take note of the latest POAMA model outputs which have both IOD and NINO3.4 heading into very neutral territory. Patience...

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml
     
  2. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Wouldn't mind some mid - late August goodness
     
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  3. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Works for me.
    Hill is empty , the Lodge is empty.....
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO we could see less pre frontal rain this Winter and as we all know this can make a big difference of total depths. So my prediction is 179cm
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well perhaps you are right. As I forecasted in my blog post, SSTAs in the GAB should be colder than average, creating colder conditions, which may create less prefrontal. Also I discussed the possibility of El Niño Modoki/Warmpool and the correlation between it and a Negative SAM. I also discussed about this in an article about 2 months ago.

    But of course the lack of moisture, due to a +IOD won't help either.
     
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  7. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see any snow events predicted ?

    What's on the "radar" over the next few weeks.

    Any joy there? :thumbs:
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Ubiquitous Steve Look at the Autumn weather thread. There's snow progged for tomorrow and Wednesday. And also the June 4-7 period.
     
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  9. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Some hints of a bombing low mid-next week. Looks like it could drop a lot of snow leading into QBW. But then again this time last week it was all doom and gloom and we've done OK in past 24 hours. 4 day rule...
     
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  10. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    "forecasted"??
     
  11. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    My two cents worth (but quite a long read)...
    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-season-outlook-2017/

    I'm feeling this winter is most likely going to be both a neutral ENSO and a neutral IOD, so that lets other water bodies come into play, like the incredibly warm Tasman Sea.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah interesting as always, definitely got the Tasman Sea warmth that might play into an ECL. I didn't mention that in my outlook, but it certainly will have an influence.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    OK, Americans use "forecasted"... didn't think I needed to make that distinction.
     
  18. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I notice there's a cyclone (albeit not that windy) forecast to hit Bangladesh today. That'll increase the chances of a +ve IOD, IMO.

    Cyclone's hitting Bangladesh are never much fun for the locals given the rainfall expected over that country.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What makes you think that this sways +ive IOD value? It is their cyclone season after all.
    Their first cyclone formed on the 17MAY16 last year as we headed into negative territory. No anomaly here, IMO.
     
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  20. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  21. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm predicting (ok, guessing) 200cm+ at Spencers Creek for the first time since 2012.

    I've just got a cold but not particularly wet vibe for the winter ahead.
     
  22. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    If you have ever been in the tropics or even nsw during summer.
    You would never call the Tasman Sea incredibly warm full stop.

    btw last 8 runs cfsv2 for 3.4 are well into negs for the months
    ahead.:)

    [​IMG]
    What you would expect to see with relentless easterly winds @160/180

    [​IMG]
     
    #122 jwx, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  23. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    #123 jwx, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  24. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    The easterlies over the Indian ocean with sst anoms plot with plus 04 active dipole chart puts it beyond doubt its already happened.
     
  25. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    I needs a negative sam to really ramp up a train of cold fronts.
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Hopecasting = $$$ :DLOL:emoji_cloud_snow:

    Updated hopecast = plenty more for everyone else's trips this season, keep it coming!
     
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