2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Outlook:


    All 3 Major Models progging little more than a trough to enter the Coral Sea via the Solomon Sea, late this weekend. SST's are plenty warm up north, but it would have to hang North of Mackay.
    GFS sniffed it out late last week, and has stayed with it. Access looks pretty disinterested in it for now.

    BoM QLD outlook:
    SST's in the Coral Sea:
    [​IMG]

    EC:
    [​IMG]

    BoM/Access-G:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    @Rush how's that cyclone model going?
     
  3. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS-GE2 and ACCESS-S1 are giving similar guidance.
     
    #3 Rush, Nov 29, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
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  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair amount of uncertainty with GE2 and S1 for the past two days. Most ensembles show storm tracks moving west across the top of Qld, while some head east towards Vanuatu.

    JTWC have been tracking 97P for two days now and give it good chance of intensifying.
     
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  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    The FB weather pages and media are already on the cyclone bandwagon. Too early to tell yet. What I've seen so far suggests it's too far north to really bother anyone.
     
  6. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Links to FB weather pages please?
     
  7. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    The OCC page is the only one I would really pay any attention to.
     
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  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC multi-week suggests 60-70% chance of formation at the top of Cape York Peninsula with most tracks taking it East into the Arafura sea.

    This is consistent with ACCESS-S1 guidance from 20181127. GE2 for the same forecast day gave a 50-50% split between tracks heading towards Vanuatu or the Arafura. GE2 is still hedging its bets based on last night's 00Z run.
     
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  9. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know of government departments that pay subscriptions to OZ weather chaser because they want cyclone outlooks into the 2nd week.
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS really loves it

    [​IMG]

    Hangs about in the Coral sea for a bit before heading towards Brisbane this time next week.
    EC not going with it
    CMC has a weak cyclone forming across the top end - perhaps

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this the 2nd one for the season? From memory, one popped up in a similar position a month or so back. I remember someone mentioning how strange it was to have clones both side of the equator to our NE.

    I'm betting on a more aggressive Clone season this year. We are due.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, it is. About the 4th in the Southern Hemisphere.
     
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  13. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    El Nino summer makes a lower number of cyclones more likely.
     
  14. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oi! I live at ground Zero. Don't wish bad karma on me.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM throwing caution to the wind for now. Anyone's guess beyond Sundee IMO.
     
  16. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry mate, just feeling the vibe. Last time I felt it, the vibe smashed SA back in 16.

    There is just too much energy stored in the coral sea already and Summer is only starting.

    The Westerly storms you saw over the last few days indicate an atmosphere primed for upper level instability.

    Hope I'm wrong.

    P.S. maybe I am the Karma warning of.....ha ha.

    Or maybe not.
     
  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love your work Rush and you know more than me but last 2 seasons saw a much lower number of East QLD Clones and less for WA.

    Please Correct me if I am wrong but 16/17 was transitioning from La Nina but still quiet. 17/18 was bouncing between the 2 but stable?

    The current year, 18/19 has seen a clone in the coral in early Oct and another on the brew.

    The monsoon trough should be nowhere near Nth Aus at this time of year but we are seeing monthly development? To me, that's scary.
     
  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My next comment will be boring (but useful) so heads up.

    I deal with the Actuaries who set your Insurance Premiums. Actuary workers crunch numbers. I explain those numbers to clients and work out solutions to avoid the increases, whilst maintaining cover.

    Actuaries put every claims event into a category. Random, Daily, Unforeseen etc.

    When a major storm hits, they assess quickly and if big enough, they assign a Catastrophy Code.....

    This is where it gets interesting. IF they place a Catastrophy code then they work out if it's a 1 in 10 year event, 1 in 20, 1 in 50, or 1 in 100.

    Now is where the math is comes. Insurance is a profit making business.... like all others

    IF you put a 10yr code on an event, the Insurer will split the costs of the event over your next 10 yearly payments....

    If it's a 50 year event, they split it over 50 years.

    THE PROBLEM IS: This weeks Sydney/ Gong event was called a 100year event BUT the last one was 86.... SO its become a 30 to 50 year event.... NOT A 100 YEAR EVENT.

    And the 100 year events keep repeating every 10 to 30.

    I am the canary in the coal mine.
     
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  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry all, the above was a stream of thought. I was planning to edit but i timed out.
     
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  20. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you have a business, PM me. I'll come see you and sort your sh't out.... and I'll split my Comms with Ski
     
  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Continued.

    IF a 100yr event occurs every 30yrs then it compounds your premium by 3.3.

    What drives investors? Loans.

    You want a loan? You need Insurance.

    No Insurance.... NO LOAN.
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    16/17 ended up being a fairly neutral season from an ENSO point-of-view. We got nine cyclones that season which is the 21st century average (long term average is 11 but that has been declining slowly).

    17/18 was ENSO neutral/weak La Nina, we got 11 cyclones.

    I reckon 18/19 will be a neutral / weak El Nino season.

    Here is the 2018/19 NIWA cyclone outlook for the South Pacific, it's a good read.
     
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  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyway today's GE2 run has favoured more TC activity over Vanuatu for the next 4-10 days.
     
  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    S1 still favouring a westerly track of 97P with possible coastal impacts in the Cape York Peninsula. Both GE2 and S1 have become more bullish for a second system spinning up at about 165 E heading west soon afterwards.
     
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  25. Jani Makaraiinen

    Jani Makaraiinen Addicted

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    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
     
  26. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Consistent with EC on this arvo's run also.
    Looks to be a solid Tasman ridge to the south to bring it westwards too.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM more optimistic on the prospect of a developing Cyclone this morning.
    Models agree but suggest a weak development.
     
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  30. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wash your mouth out. We are only just back on our feet after 2013 so definitely not "due" for another cyclone or its trailing low pressure system floods ! ! ! !
    BTW: I appreciate the weather gurus doing their advance spotting though.
     
  31. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Comments from JTWC
    Sounds like this system is keeping everyone guessing and will make a good model verification study in years to come.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In comparison to EC, NAVGEM, GFS models, any idea how the UKMET fairs for TC accuracy?
    GFS ensemble suggests it has no clue:
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. dogski

    dogski Hard Yards

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    TC Owen has been born,now be a good bloke and drop heaps of goodness on the nth coast.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  35. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could just about put this in another thread.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM thinks it will die, as does EC

    [​IMG]

    GFS still think it's a hit
    [​IMG]
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s got 30 knot shear impacting it. It’s surprising it’s had this much life it.
     
  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems like GFS is just as trigger happy as it was last season. Looks like they haven't upgraded the model in the past few months.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    They've got an upgrade pending IIRC.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS 00z has dropped Owen as well.

    But things something else is here in 10 days time.

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    HWRF model had a resolution upgrade early July.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM gradient wind analysis now showing possibility of cyclogenesis at 165 E
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keeping an eye on things
     
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  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Having said that, both ACCESS-S and the ECMWF long-range EPS have significantly backed off the chances of a storm forming in the Coral Sea in the next two weeks.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ex-TC Owen looking to play games in the Gulf over the next week. Remarkably it deepens partially over land.
    JTWC brief:
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    It delivered a pretty wet night here with something like 169mm in the can since 9am yesterday. Still several areas without power from fallen branches on power lines. Higgins is suggesting it may do what Oswald did a few years back and go down the interior to the south east.
     
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  49. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have been in good agreement that it will imminently meander SE back through QLD.
    I don’t think it’ll reach NSW though. Brisbane should be on notice IMO.