1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    First approach? As in it took you a couple? Lol
     
    nfip and dibl0c like this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Wow. Just checked it too. Cat 2 tonight. Really? Isn’t it in ~24c of SST?
    Kinda laughable going off the Sat picture too. Visually, not much left of it now.
     
    nfip likes this.
  3. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2017
    Messages:
    2,139
    Likes Received:
    2,325
    Maybe going back for a home brew?
     
    dibl0c likes this.
  4. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2017
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    363
    Location:
    Burleigh Heads
    Oma gets a quiet nod from tired parents deep into summer sports season as Friday night cricket and Sunday morning nippers are cancelled :emoji_beers:
     
  5. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    4,100
    Location:
    An airport
     
    nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, BoM is coked up for the weekend if they reckon that thing is gonna get to Cat 2 tonight.
    Benign AF.
     
    Claude Cat and dibl0c like this.
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It’s certainly left quite the skidmark of a tail in the upper troposphere.
    Impressive jetstream to the south.
     
    dibl0c likes this.
  8. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2003
    Messages:
    11,280
    Likes Received:
    3,579
    Location:
    Northern Beaches
    trappers likes this.
  9. dibl0c

    dibl0c A man without wasta is not a man! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 22, 2007
    Messages:
    15,341
    Likes Received:
    22,112
    Location:
    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... take your pick.
    Flew 4 sectors today - first approach as in the one I flew back into Brisbane around 8:30 am.

    For the second flown by my colleague just after lunch the wind had died off quite a bit.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Just read BoM’s technical bulletin for Oma and it cites ‘Synoptic Forcing’ to aid development of the clone tonight and throughout saturday.
    Not sure it’s got any gumption as it’s all dry air to the North & West.
    But with a polar short wave hitting NZ (in summer) there’s a pretty unique scenario with the amount of WX in the Tasman RN, so I guess BoM calls it how it is.
     
  11. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    4,100
    Location:
    An airport
    They are not giving up!! Still looking at a cat 2 tomorrow ... TBH I'd be surprised if it is still a cyclone tomorrow!!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    4,100
    Location:
    An airport
    SO BoM had it at Cat 2 at 4am this morning due to "Synoptic forcing", not cyclonic and the results of an ASCAT pass. I can not find this ASCAT pass, but all the other passes I could find showed nothing above 35 kt (48kt min for a cat 2). I've never really trusted ASCAT and have not seen it used to detirmine cyclone / system strength before! SO this is a first for me and I am more than a little sceptical. Especially since they immediately downgraded it to a tropical low afterwards!
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    To be fair JTWC always reference the ASCAT obs.
    The only down side is the swathe reach is hit/miss
    Latest release refs it:
    www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1519web.txt
     
  14. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    4,100
    Location:
    An airport
    Yes they ref it, but I’ve never seen them base a categorisation SOLELY on it, which is what the BoM have done! Also note that they don’t reference 50 kt gusts there, still don’t know where BOM got that from... will have a deeper look.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    4,100
    Location:
    An airport
  16. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,950
    Likes Received:
    8,589
    Monster Oma generated surf at Burleigh Headland this morning with tow outs and crowds
    Ive seen a couple of major tropical lows and an ex cyclone come through over the past few years but this surf was something else
     
    Claude Cat, trappers and sharkbait like this.
  17. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2017
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    363
    Location:
    Burleigh Heads
    Yeh Burleigh was handling it pretty well today considering how massive this swell is. A bit more west in the wind than forecast had the bigger sets standing up and reeling down the point. Moments of perfection in between mostly victory at sea type conditions. The Pavilion survived mostly, sandbags at Rickshaws were being well tested around the 11am high tide!
     
    MisterMxyzptlk likes this.
  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    If ASCAT is good enough to be assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction for the UK Met Office and ECMWF it should be good enough for you ;)

    Links : ECMWF satellite surface-wind observation monitoring and assimilation statistics
     
    trappers likes this.
  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    28,749
    Likes Received:
    24,291
    Location:
    woonona
    I've been keeping an eye on the japanese weather.
    Thinking to myself. Thats strange that we have a Typhoon.
    GFS has it falling apart and joining up with a tropical low . That then smashes into Japan with heavy rain and warm temps.
    joy.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Would not be good.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    28,749
    Likes Received:
    24,291
    Location:
    woonona
    Unless you're surfing in the Phillipines at the moment
    [​IMG]
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Which would be freaking epic ‘cause ‘ain’t no one there for surfing at this time of the year.
    That stat is friggen nuts tho. That system is bizarre.
    Last MJO pulse was two weeks ago... and don’t mind that it’s Feb!
     
    Kletterer and Claude Cat like this.
  25. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    507
    Likes Received:
    650
    Location:
    Redfern
    I know it is a way off but 10th of March looks interesting if it comes off. Another progged for SE Qld. Probability 1000 to 1 i know.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    We have Pola in the South Pacific

    [​IMG]
     
    Trail Blazer likes this.
  27. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,509
    Likes Received:
    427
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Is that close enough for more swell?
     
    trappers likes this.
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep. Albeit more trade/groundswell-based, less wind. Cat dependant; less size, greater peak-period.
    Chiefly benefiting SE QLD & NSW North Coast though.

    EDIT: Core winds are more in the Eastern dissect at the moment @50-60knots. So NSW should actually get a look in from the ENE by the weekend.
     
    Claude Cat, Trail Blazer and Donzah like this.
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    Cylone Pola. Looks solid today on the Sat. Cat 4 at 25 degrees south is pretty huge.

    Awesome if it tracked west south west

    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    OMA had some 19 sec interval sets.(waves)

    Cyclone Pola may deliver.

     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    CMC showing something up, but nothing much on EC or GFS right now.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    In line with the above, virtually all major models in agreement with a TD North of the NW shelf this time next week, on the latest runs.
    Should have the NW's second clone of the season by the weekend, but most models suggesting it'll get ushered out into the Indian ATM.
    GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat and Kletterer like this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Mozambique on notice for TC Idai. Looking dicey.
    Cat 4-5 looks possible @ landfall.
    [​IMG]
     
    #486 POW_hungry, Mar 10, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2019
    7wombathead likes this.
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,021
    Likes Received:
    15,752
    Location:
    Canberra
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,021
    Likes Received:
    15,752
    Location:
    Canberra
    A nice spike there on the 0-48 hr graph .
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS stepping away from the NW now focusing on the Coral Sea TC development (00z run), however EC @ The Canuck in good agreement on the TD spawning in the Timor Sea heading through the Broome region, next weekend:
    [​IMG]
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    That right (Mck FUNNING) will be maxing.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    GFS really has more imagination than I could dare dreamup.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  42. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
    12z GFS has a TC smashing the Cairns region around March 21.
     
  43. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,218
    Likes Received:
    3,625
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Do not like.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC also going with the Cocos Keeling island system.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    Ho is eye on this beast "ADAI

    [​IMG]
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    TC Savannah expected to get to Cat 4 tomorrow after ~3 days on the run as a TC.
    [​IMG]
     
    Kletterer and Claude Cat like this.
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,221
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Another building in SE Asia

    [​IMG]
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Saw that!
    I immediately thought Wutip was no fluke.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,569
    Likes Received:
    20,779
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    FNQ communities are put on notice with possible Cat2:
    [​IMG]