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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.
First approach? As in it took you a couple? Lol
Wow. Just checked it too. Cat 2 tonight. Really? Isn’t it in ~24c of SST?
Kinda laughable going off the Sat picture too. Visually, not much left of it now.
Maybe going back for a home brew?
Oma gets a quiet nod from tired parents deep into summer sports season as Friday night cricket and Sunday morning nippers are cancelled
Yep, BoM is coked up for the weekend if they reckon that thing is gonna get to Cat 2 tonight.
It’s certainly left quite the skidmark of a tail in the upper troposphere.
Impressive jetstream to the south.
Okay on record @trappers and @POW_hungry
BOM v ski.com.au punters, bring it On!
Flew 4 sectors today - first approach as in the one I flew back into Brisbane around 8:30 am.
For the second flown by my colleague just after lunch the wind had died off quite a bit.
Just read BoM’s technical bulletin for Oma and it cites ‘Synoptic Forcing’ to aid development of the clone tonight and throughout saturday.
Not sure it’s got any gumption as it’s all dry air to the North & West.
But with a polar short wave hitting NZ (in summer) there’s a pretty unique scenario with the amount of WX in the Tasman RN, so I guess BoM calls it how it is.
They are not giving up!! Still looking at a cat 2 tomorrow ... TBH I'd be surprised if it is still a cyclone tomorrow!!
SO BoM had it at Cat 2 at 4am this morning due to "Synoptic forcing", not cyclonic and the results of an ASCAT pass. I can not find this ASCAT pass, but all the other passes I could find showed nothing above 35 kt (48kt min for a cat 2). I've never really trusted ASCAT and have not seen it used to detirmine cyclone / system strength before! SO this is a first for me and I am more than a little sceptical. Especially since they immediately downgraded it to a tropical low afterwards!
To be fair JTWC always reference the ASCAT obs.
The only down side is the swathe reach is hit/miss
Latest release refs it:
Yes they ref it, but I’ve never seen them base a categorisation SOLELY on it, which is what the BoM have done! Also note that they don’t reference 50 kt gusts there, still don’t know where BOM got that from... will have a deeper look.
Monster Oma generated surf at Burleigh Headland this morning with tow outs and crowds
Ive seen a couple of major tropical lows and an ex cyclone come through over the past few years but this surf was something else
Yeh Burleigh was handling it pretty well today considering how massive this swell is. A bit more west in the wind than forecast had the bigger sets standing up and reeling down the point. Moments of perfection in between mostly victory at sea type conditions. The Pavilion survived mostly, sandbags at Rickshaws were being well tested around the 11am high tide!
If ASCAT is good enough to be assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction for the UK Met Office and ECMWF it should be good enough for you
Links : ECMWF satellite surface-wind observation monitoring and assimilation statistics
Hey @trappers go nuts : https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SMAPData.php
I've been keeping an eye on the japanese weather.
Thinking to myself. Thats strange that we have a Typhoon.
GFS has it falling apart and joining up with a tropical low . That then smashes into Japan with heavy rain and warm temps.
Would not be good.
Unless you're surfing in the Phillipines at the moment
Which would be freaking epic ‘cause ‘ain’t no one there for surfing at this time of the year.
That stat is friggen nuts tho. That system is bizarre.
Last MJO pulse was two weeks ago... and don’t mind that it’s Feb!
I know it is a way off but 10th of March looks interesting if it comes off. Another progged for SE Qld. Probability 1000 to 1 i know.
We have Pola in the South Pacific
Is that close enough for more swell?
Yep. Albeit more trade/groundswell-based, less wind. Cat dependant; less size, greater peak-period.
Chiefly benefiting SE QLD & NSW North Coast though.
EDIT: Core winds are more in the Eastern dissect at the moment @50-60knots. So NSW should actually get a look in from the ENE by the weekend.
Cylone Pola. Looks solid today on the Sat. Cat 4 at 25 degrees south is pretty huge.
Awesome if it tracked west south west
OMA had some 19 sec interval sets.(waves)
Cyclone Pola may deliver.
CMC showing something up, but nothing much on EC or GFS right now.
In line with the above, virtually all major models in agreement with a TD North of the NW shelf this time next week, on the latest runs.
Should have the NW's second clone of the season by the weekend, but most models suggesting it'll get ushered out into the Indian ATM.
Mozambique on notice for TC Idai. Looking dicey.
Cat 4-5 looks possible @ landfall.
A nice spike there on the 0-48 hr graph
GFS stepping away from the NW now focusing on the Coral Sea TC development (00z run), however EC @ The Canuck in good agreement on the TD spawning in the Timor Sea heading through the Broome region, next weekend:
That right (Mck FUNNING) will be maxing.
GFS really has more imagination than I could dare dreamup.
12z GFS has a TC smashing the Cairns region around March 21.
Do not like.
EC also going with the Cocos Keeling island system.
Ho is eye on this beast "ADAI
TC Savannah expected to get to Cat 4 tomorrow after ~3 days on the run as a TC.
Another building in SE Asia
I immediately thought Wutip was no fluke.
FNQ communities are put on notice with possible Cat2: