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Resource 2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    First approach? As in it took you a couple? Lol
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow. Just checked it too. Cat 2 tonight. Really? Isn’t it in ~24c of SST?
    Kinda laughable going off the Sat picture too. Visually, not much left of it now.
     
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  3. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Maybe going back for a home brew?
     
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  4. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    Oma gets a quiet nod from tired parents deep into summer sports season as Friday night cricket and Sunday morning nippers are cancelled :emoji_beers:
     
  5. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, BoM is coked up for the weekend if they reckon that thing is gonna get to Cat 2 tonight.
    Benign AF.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s certainly left quite the skidmark of a tail in the upper troposphere.
    Impressive jetstream to the south.
     
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  8. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    trappers likes this.
  9. dibl0c

    dibl0c ... not as special as I think I am. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flew 4 sectors today - first approach as in the one I flew back into Brisbane around 8:30 am.

    For the second flown by my colleague just after lunch the wind had died off quite a bit.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just read BoM’s technical bulletin for Oma and it cites ‘Synoptic Forcing’ to aid development of the clone tonight and throughout saturday.
    Not sure it’s got any gumption as it’s all dry air to the North & West.
    But with a polar short wave hitting NZ (in summer) there’s a pretty unique scenario with the amount of WX in the Tasman RN, so I guess BoM calls it how it is.
     
  11. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are not giving up!! Still looking at a cat 2 tomorrow ... TBH I'd be surprised if it is still a cyclone tomorrow!!
     
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  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    SO BoM had it at Cat 2 at 4am this morning due to "Synoptic forcing", not cyclonic and the results of an ASCAT pass. I can not find this ASCAT pass, but all the other passes I could find showed nothing above 35 kt (48kt min for a cat 2). I've never really trusted ASCAT and have not seen it used to detirmine cyclone / system strength before! SO this is a first for me and I am more than a little sceptical. Especially since they immediately downgraded it to a tropical low afterwards!
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair JTWC always reference the ASCAT obs.
    The only down side is the swathe reach is hit/miss
    Latest release refs it:
    www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1519web.txt
     
  14. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes they ref it, but I’ve never seen them base a categorisation SOLELY on it, which is what the BoM have done! Also note that they don’t reference 50 kt gusts there, still don’t know where BOM got that from... will have a deeper look.
     
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  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monster Oma generated surf at Burleigh Headland this morning with tow outs and crowds
    Ive seen a couple of major tropical lows and an ex cyclone come through over the past few years but this surf was something else
     
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  17. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    Yeh Burleigh was handling it pretty well today considering how massive this swell is. A bit more west in the wind than forecast had the bigger sets standing up and reeling down the point. Moments of perfection in between mostly victory at sea type conditions. The Pavilion survived mostly, sandbags at Rickshaws were being well tested around the 11am high tide!
     
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  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If ASCAT is good enough to be assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction for the UK Met Office and ECMWF it should be good enough for you ;)

    Links : ECMWF satellite surface-wind observation monitoring and assimilation statistics
     
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  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been keeping an eye on the japanese weather.
    Thinking to myself. Thats strange that we have a Typhoon.
    GFS has it falling apart and joining up with a tropical low . That then smashes into Japan with heavy rain and warm temps.
    joy.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Would not be good.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unless you're surfing in the Phillipines at the moment
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which would be freaking epic ‘cause ‘ain’t no one there for surfing at this time of the year.
    That stat is friggen nuts tho. That system is bizarre.
    Last MJO pulse was two weeks ago... and don’t mind that it’s Feb!
     
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  25. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    I know it is a way off but 10th of March looks interesting if it comes off. Another progged for SE Qld. Probability 1000 to 1 i know.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We have Pola in the South Pacific

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Is that close enough for more swell?
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Albeit more trade/groundswell-based, less wind. Cat dependant; less size, greater peak-period.
    Chiefly benefiting SE QLD & NSW North Coast though.

    EDIT: Core winds are more in the Eastern dissect at the moment @50-60knots. So NSW should actually get a look in from the ENE by the weekend.
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Cylone Pola. Looks solid today on the Sat. Cat 4 at 25 degrees south is pretty huge.

    Awesome if it tracked west south west

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    OMA had some 19 sec interval sets.(waves)

    Cyclone Pola may deliver.

     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC showing something up, but nothing much on EC or GFS right now.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    In line with the above, virtually all major models in agreement with a TD North of the NW shelf this time next week, on the latest runs.
    Should have the NW's second clone of the season by the weekend, but most models suggesting it'll get ushered out into the Indian ATM.
    GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mozambique on notice for TC Idai. Looking dicey.
    Cat 4-5 looks possible @ landfall.
    [​IMG]
     
    #486 POW_hungry, Mar 10, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2019
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice spike there on the 0-48 hr graph .
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS stepping away from the NW now focusing on the Coral Sea TC development (00z run), however EC @ The Canuck in good agreement on the TD spawning in the Timor Sea heading through the Broome region, next weekend:
    [​IMG]
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That right (Mck FUNNING) will be maxing.
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS really has more imagination than I could dare dreamup.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    12z GFS has a TC smashing the Cairns region around March 21.
     
  43. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do not like.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC also going with the Cocos Keeling island system.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Ho is eye on this beast "ADAI

    [​IMG]
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Savannah expected to get to Cat 4 tomorrow after ~3 days on the run as a TC.
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Another building in SE Asia

    [​IMG]
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw that!
    I immediately thought Wutip was no fluke.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    FNQ communities are put on notice with possible Cat2:
    [​IMG]