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2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridiculous humidity in Cairns today. The air has that "something's brewing" feel about it.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Savannah now Cat 4, our strongest TC in our region, this season.
    Sitting on 951mb Central surface pressure, sustained core winds @165km/h, gusts @ 230km/h.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We Now have TC Trevor as a Cat1 system formed in the northern Coral Sea, due to make landfall on the Cape York Pen tomorrow night. Likely as a Cat2
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting the EC Cyclone page doesn't show Trevor at all.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am guessing BOMs Category threshold is lower than EC and probably wasn’t reached by the 12z run?
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Perhaps one off the NW coast next week too.
     
    Trail Blazer likes this.
  8. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yes, but probably ends up tracking way out West. I'm more interested in ex-TC Trev dumping its load on Inland NT and even the Simpson Desert....
     
  9. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Lovely cyclonic low spinning directly over Sydney right now...
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Coming and going on GFS run to run, but the 00z run reckons it’s def coming in hot and spicy.
     
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  11. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Geez there's a lot going on there
     
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  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    And about time too!

    Looks like it could end up being a Shark Bay Special.
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Chances of that coming off, 100 to 1!
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tonight's EC, looking very similar to GFS.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  16. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Two good looking lows/cyclones .
    Looking like they will bring rain to NT inland and WA.
    Also helping to switch the Autumn light on for Vic and SA and produce some much needed rain to the southern states.
     
    MarkV and Claude Cat like this.
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trev now Cat2, BoM likes it for Cat3 at landfall. Upgrade!
     
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS this afternoon

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was expecting a slight downgrade this arvo. Will be interesting to see what outcome eventuates.
     
  21. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Trevor making landfall. Quite an impressive looking system on radar.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a Cat 3.
    The shit gets real when it re-intensifies in the GoC. BoM likes it for a Cat 4.
    I reckon if EC is to be belived it'll reach Cat5.
     
    Claude Cat and Seafm like this.
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deep Layer Mean plots sure looks funky atm. Fujiwhara anyone ?
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    JTWC, put's it circa Cat4 with max (140 knots) 260km/h gusts, on Saturday.
    [​IMG]

    Says it all really:
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The 00z EC run has the NW cyclone crossing at Exmouth.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Veronica has now been named. Currently active as a Cat1 system NW of Broome.
    Models currently progging it's track to make landfall between Karratha & Exmouth.
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Trevor might add to the inland flooding in QLD

    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  29. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will Trevor and Veronica become one somewhere south of Alice
     
  30. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Nah. Trev will dissolve in to a trough and end up over SE Qld. Veronica will dissolve over inland WA and end up in the Bight near Esperance.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, Trev is chasing the old duck; Savannah the cheeky boy. But alas, he’ll run out of puff and wind up dead in the desert.
     
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  32. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The end result of this long distance relationship looks ...... moist
     
  33. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good RI for Veronica; <12 hours of lifespan and already upgraded to Cat2.
     
  35. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Uncanny resemblence! Look at the dates - 22nd March (34 years apart)
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggesting Veronica may not cross the coast after all.

    [​IMG]
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Veronica Cat 4 now with BoM suggesting Cat5 by tomorrow evening, an upsize on JTWC advice.
     
  38. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Every time this cyclone is mentioned this song gets into my head:
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pinhole eye has really cleared out in the last couple of hours.
    DT value of 6.0!
    Impressive radial outflow.

     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC says hit and run.

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Pushed out to the West by strong anti-cyclone South of Perth... And it looks like it may sit off Karratha for 3-4 days...
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Ex-TC Trev might dump an enormous amount of rain on Southern and SW Outback Qld if 00Z GFS is correct.

    That could help the Paroo and Darling Rivers get flowing again.
     
    nfip, Claude Cat and cookieman like this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    JTWC, going for Cat 5 in the next 6-8 hours.
    135 knots sustained winds, 165 knot gusts.:eek:
    Port Headland on notice.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Veronica is sitting on a Dvorak Technique value of 6.5, but I notice the latest Himawari image has the eye collapsed or obstructed.
    20 mins ago:

    Vs. 90 mins ago:
     
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  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes I obs that late last night , or early this a.m zzzzz
    I think apart from the severity , is the actual scale of these systems.
    I wont embarrass myself too much trying to add tech comment on structure etc.
    (paging old mate JWX or whatever he was on any given day depending on which shoulder the chip was ;) . bummer that.)
    But watching Himware convection last few days has been incredible.




    Trev
    [​IMG]

    *Veronica
    [​IMG]
     
    #548 nfip, Mar 22, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2019
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest EC projections.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    I know I’ve asked the same question before, but once again we see cyclones with full or dark moons when the gravity pull on the earth from the moon, at a peak, seems to coincide with cyclones.. looking at history seems to show that...
    is there a real link, in surely the atmosphere must be effected in some way?