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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.
Ridiculous humidity in Cairns today. The air has that "something's brewing" feel about it.
TC Savannah now Cat 4, our strongest TC in our region, this season.
Sitting on 951mb Central surface pressure, sustained core winds @165km/h, gusts @ 230km/h.
We Now have TC Trevor as a Cat1 system formed in the northern Coral Sea, due to make landfall on the Cape York Pen tomorrow night. Likely as a Cat2
Interesting the EC Cyclone page doesn't show Trevor at all.
I am guessing BOMs Category threshold is lower than EC and probably wasn’t reached by the 12z run?
Perhaps one off the NW coast next week too.
Yes, but probably ends up tracking way out West. I'm more interested in ex-TC Trev dumping its load on Inland NT and even the Simpson Desert....
Lovely cyclonic low spinning directly over Sydney right now...
Coming and going on GFS run to run, but the 00z run reckons it’s def coming in hot and spicy.
Geez there's a lot going on there
And about time too!
Looks like it could end up being a Shark Bay Special.
Chances of that coming off, 100 to 1!
Tonight's EC, looking very similar to GFS.
Two good looking lows/cyclones .
Looking like they will bring rain to NT inland and WA.
Also helping to switch the Autumn light on for Vic and SA and produce some much needed rain to the southern states.
Trev now Cat2, BoM likes it for Cat3 at landfall. Upgrade!
More than 1,000 feared dead in Mozambique storm
GFS this afternoon
Was expecting a slight downgrade this arvo. Will be interesting to see what outcome eventuates.
TC Trevor making landfall. Quite an impressive looking system on radar.
As a Cat 3.
The shit gets real when it re-intensifies in the GoC. BoM likes it for a Cat 4.
I reckon if EC is to be belived it'll reach Cat5.
Deep Layer Mean plots sure looks funky atm. Fujiwhara anyone ?
JTWC, put's it circa Cat4 with max (140 knots) 260km/h gusts, on Saturday.
Says it all really:
The 00z EC run has the NW cyclone crossing at Exmouth.
TC Veronica has now been named. Currently active as a Cat1 system NW of Broome.
Models currently progging it's track to make landfall between Karratha & Exmouth.
Trevor might add to the inland flooding in QLD
TC Trev looks like it could be a repeat of TC Kathy in March 1984 which trashed Borroloola:
Will Trevor and Veronica become one somewhere south of Alice
Nah. Trev will dissolve in to a trough and end up over SE Qld. Veronica will dissolve over inland WA and end up in the Bight near Esperance.
Nah, Trev is chasing the old duck; Savannah the cheeky boy. But alas, he’ll run out of puff and wind up dead in the desert.
The end result of this long distance relationship looks ...... moist
Good RI for Veronica; <12 hours of lifespan and already upgraded to Cat2.
Uncanny resemblence! Look at the dates - 22nd March (34 years apart)
EC suggesting Veronica may not cross the coast after all.
Veronica Cat 4 now with BoM suggesting Cat5 by tomorrow evening, an upsize on JTWC advice.
Every time this cyclone is mentioned this song gets into my head:
Pinhole eye has really cleared out in the last couple of hours.
DT value of 6.0!
Impressive radial outflow.
EC says hit and run.
Pushed out to the West by strong anti-cyclone South of Perth... And it looks like it may sit off Karratha for 3-4 days...
State of Emergency declared the in NT.
State of emergency declared in NT as cyclone Trevor looms
Ex-TC Trev might dump an enormous amount of rain on Southern and SW Outback Qld if 00Z GFS is correct.
That could help the Paroo and Darling Rivers get flowing again.
JTWC, going for Cat 5 in the next 6-8 hours.
135 knots sustained winds, 165 knot gusts.
Port Headland on notice.
Veronica is sitting on a Dvorak Technique value of 6.5, but I notice the latest Himawari image has the eye collapsed or obstructed.
20 mins ago:
Vs. 90 mins ago:
Yes I obs that late last night , or early this a.m zzzzz
I think apart from the severity , is the actual scale of these systems.
I wont embarrass myself too much trying to add tech comment on structure etc.
(paging old mate JWX or whatever he was on any given day depending on which shoulder the chip was . bummer that.)
But watching Himware convection last few days has been incredible.
Latest EC projections.
I know I’ve asked the same question before, but once again we see cyclones with full or dark moons when the gravity pull on the earth from the moon, at a peak, seems to coincide with cyclones.. looking at history seems to show that...
is there a real link, in surely the atmosphere must be effected in some way?