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2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    She is sounding saucy Miss Veronica:

    IDW27600
    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
    Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1332 UTC 22/03/2019
    Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica
    Identifier: 19U
    Data At: 1200 UTC
    Latitude: 17.9S
    Longitude: 116.9E
    Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
    Movement Towards: south southeast [155 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 944 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 22/1800: 18.2S 116.9E: 025 [050]: 105 [195]: 933
    +12: 23/0000: 18.6S 117.1E: 040 [070]: 105 [195]: 934
    +18: 23/0600: 19.1S 117.3E: 050 [095]: 100 [185]: 939
    +24: 23/1200: 19.6S 117.7E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 945
    +36: 24/0000: 20.5S 118.4E: 085 [155]: 090 [165]: 949
    +48: 24/1200: 20.8S 118.5E: 105 [190]: 050 [095]: 981
    +60: 25/0000: 21.1S 118.3E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 988
    +72: 25/1200: 21.2S 118.1E: 140 [265]: 030 [055]: 995
    +96: 26/1200: 21.7S 116.6E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 996
    +120: 27/1200: 22.6S 114.1E: 275 [505]: 030 [055]: 996
    REMARKS:
    The organisation and extent of TC Veronica's overcast has weakened over the last
    6 hours, however it has retained a distinct though ragged eye. Microwave imagery
    suggests the underlying structure remains well organised.

    Dvorak DTs have been consistently 4.5 based on surrounding temperature of MG
    with LG/OW Eadj=0.0. MET is 5.0 or 4.5 over the same period based on a
    consistent W- trend. FT is 4.5 but CI is held at 5.5 for initial weakening.
    NESDIS/CIMSS ADT is at 5.4/5.2. There has not been any recent sounder passes and
    hence there are no recent SATCON estimates. Final intensity estimate is set at
    95 knots [10-minute].

    The overall environment remains favourable for some further development in the
    next 12 hours. Wind shear is ENE at 8 knots [CIMMS at 12 UTC], strong poleward
    upper level outflow continues, as does the abundance of moisture and SSTS of
    around 30C. Some reintensification may occur or at least be maintained depending
    on inner core variations. However, from Saturday morning, the upper level winds
    become less favourable so some weakening is forecast but the rate of change
    heavily depends upon the track as to when it reaches land and how resilient the
    circulation is to the increase in upper winds.

    A subtle weakening and shift in orientation of the mid-level steering ridge
    associated with the passage of an upper mid-latitude trough is forecast to steer
    the cyclone to the southeast towards the Pilbara coast during Saturday. The
    cyclone landfall is most likely Sunday morning with considerable variation
    amongst the guidance. The movement over land later on Sunday and early next week
    varies considerable in the guidance, a track close to the west Pilbara coast
    seems the most likely as the system weakens.

    Tides will be close to the highest astronomical tide over the weekend,
    exacerbating the risk of a significant storm tide impact, but will depend upon
    the landfall timing. The slow motion also means that rainfall totals will be
    higher than for normal cyclone rainfall amounts and cumulative totals in excess
    of 700mm are possible.


    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    ==
    The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1930 UTC by Perth TCWC.
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OMFG, this has been done to death ... NO THERE IS NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MOON PHASE AND CYCLONES OR TORNADOS OR ... FFS

    YES, the atmosphere is impacted by the moon slightly through atmospheric tides, but the solar effect is much much larger and that has nothing whatsoever to do with the phase of the moon ...
     
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  4. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty rowdy up on the central Pilbara coast last night & this morning - Legendre Island & Roebourne stations recording some impressively sustained winds around 140km/h.
     
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  5. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    "Severe cyclone expected" - quite the forecast!!

    Port Hedland
    Close Precis
    Forecast updated at 7:51 am WST on Sunday 24 March 2019.

    Detailed Port Hedland Forecast

    Sun.24 Mar Mon.25 Mar Tue.26 Mar Wed.27 Mar Thu.28 Mar Fri.29 Mar Sat.30 Mar
    Summary [​IMG]Severe cyclone expected. [​IMG]Cyclone expected. [​IMG]Shower or two. Possible storm. [​IMG]Shower or two. Possible storm. [​IMG]Sunny. [​IMG]Sunny. [​IMG]Sunny.
    Max. Temperature 27 °C 28 °C 31 °C 33 °C 35 °C 37 °C 37 °C
    Min. Temperature 24 °C 25 °C 25 °C 25 °C 25 °C 24 °C
     
  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ??? Legendre and Roebourne have not seen sustained winds above 60 kts = 110 km/h ... did you mean gusts?

    Roebourne / Legendre (Before it went offline.)

     
  7. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, meant sustained gusts, IMO if that's been consistently 'gusting' to above 100km/h for that kind of period, things are getting pretty loose.

    Roebourne copping a battering now, gusts have been over 100km/h since 2300 last night, getting up above 150km/h now. That type of wind on land, at sea level will be doing some damage, coming out of the south quarter with that rain, must be like a slurry blasting, storm surge will be impressive in that low lying coastal country.

    Going to be an interesting coastal tour of the Pilbara, as you know Trappers, will be a lot of disruption.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS, CMC and EC have another brewing up off the NW coast in 7-10 days time, with potential to track down the WA coast.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Some divergence in models
    GFS now has a hit north of Port Hedland. CMC more circumspect, with a depression much further north off the Kimberlies.
    Waiting for EC.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks nicely uninhibited for now. EC surface based CAPE also all over this one- 3500 - 3800
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS and CMC much closer together now.
    GFS has a more intense system, hitting near Port Headland, CMC is a bit weaker, crossing perhaps a day later.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC mirrors GFS

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and GFS still locked in for this one, very little variation.
    CMC has it staying off the NW coast - just.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC going the way of CMC, and this possibly not making land fall.
    GFS has an Exmouth hit.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All seems ironically deja vu of Veronica. GFS went a little wide (at times) whilst EC toyed with a coastal player.
    Can't blame the stale synoptic outlay though...
     
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  19. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lets not forget about the east coast. GFS has had this system on model runs for a little bit now around 2-weeks out. Normally rubbish at that range, though I think Yasi appeared like this without much change from first forecast to impact.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC, GFS and CMC now have the NW system as a "miss", probably not a bad result.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We now have TC Wallace NW off the Kimberley Coast, on a WSW movement.
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Safely heading away.

    [​IMG]
     
  24. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the east coast system in the long range has disappeared. Still looks to be a generalised area across the Cape and through to Solomons of low pressure and enhanced rainfall on the 7-15 days forecast. Might be the final monsoon pulse for the season, this morning it was distinctly cooler in Cairns than it has been since about Oct/Nov last year. Cracking SE'ly trade winds too, the beaches have been copping it, seasons' changing.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The disappearing act is likely as a result of those SE’lies you mention. A markable cooler week just gone, here in NSW too.

    Sure has been a mild TC season, just a BoM suggested back in October.
     
  26. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where you been hiding? Haven't seen you on here for ages.
     
  27. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been around here and there. Had no internet for a long time at house out-of Innisfail, moved to gVale got internet back...but toddler is too demanding of time...so now I guess I log in from work occasionally for a quick read and post.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and GFS both pointing to a TD to form through Timor over the next week, despite the end of our Cyclone season by definition.
    Possible Cyclone to form as it enters the Timor sea.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A spin-off from the strong (peak) MJO pulse through the Indian Ocean is TC Fani. It's undergoing some pretty unique drivers at the moment and due to intensify over the next 24 hours, probably to an equivalent of a Aus/BoM Cat 4/5:
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggesting a late cyclone off the NW later next week perhaps over Timor.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and TC Ann is officially official.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
    For 4:53 am EST on Sunday 12 May 2019
    At 4 am AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Ann (Category 1) with central pressure
    1001 hPa was located
    over the Coral sea near latitude 16.2 south longitude 159.1 east, which is
    about 1420 km east of Cairns, and moving west at 15 kilometres per hour.

    The tropical low over the eastern Coral Sea has developed into Tropical cyclone
    Ann, category 1. The system has been moving slowly southwards for the past few
    days, but has recently shifted onto a track to the west-northwest, and this
    motion is expected to continue for several days. Ann is expected to strengthen
    a little through today, before beginning a weakening trend on Monday.

    The system poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast at this time.
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    And I thought the wet season was finished.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    it started 8 or 10 weeks late iirc ?
    natures balance.
     
  35. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I could tell a couple of weeks ago that a cyclone was coming to extend the wet, signed a contract on a house and settlement goes through this Thursday so my packing and moving week had to be a wet one.

    It has been a bit breezy in Cairns for a few days should ramp up a little this evening and tomorrow with the isobar compression between the TC and that big fat high down south.
     
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  36. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic but where did you buy?