She is sounding saucy Miss Veronica: IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1332 UTC 22/03/2019 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica Identifier: 19U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.9S Longitude: 116.9E Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km] Movement Towards: south southeast [155 deg] Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h] Central Pressure: 944 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km] Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km] Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km] Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km] Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 22/1800: 18.2S 116.9E: 025 : 105 : 933 +12: 23/0000: 18.6S 117.1E: 040 : 105 : 934 +18: 23/0600: 19.1S 117.3E: 050 : 100 : 939 +24: 23/1200: 19.6S 117.7E: 065 : 095 : 945 +36: 24/0000: 20.5S 118.4E: 085 : 090 : 949 +48: 24/1200: 20.8S 118.5E: 105 : 050 : 981 +60: 25/0000: 21.1S 118.3E: 120 : 040 : 988 +72: 25/1200: 21.2S 118.1E: 140 : 030 : 995 +96: 26/1200: 21.7S 116.6E: 185 : 030 : 996 +120: 27/1200: 22.6S 114.1E: 275 : 030 : 996 REMARKS: The organisation and extent of TC Veronica's overcast has weakened over the last 6 hours, however it has retained a distinct though ragged eye. Microwave imagery suggests the underlying structure remains well organised. Dvorak DTs have been consistently 4.5 based on surrounding temperature of MG with LG/OW Eadj=0.0. MET is 5.0 or 4.5 over the same period based on a consistent W- trend. FT is 4.5 but CI is held at 5.5 for initial weakening. NESDIS/CIMSS ADT is at 5.4/5.2. There has not been any recent sounder passes and hence there are no recent SATCON estimates. Final intensity estimate is set at 95 knots [10-minute]. The overall environment remains favourable for some further development in the next 12 hours. Wind shear is ENE at 8 knots [CIMMS at 12 UTC], strong poleward upper level outflow continues, as does the abundance of moisture and SSTS of around 30C. Some reintensification may occur or at least be maintained depending on inner core variations. However, from Saturday morning, the upper level winds become less favourable so some weakening is forecast but the rate of change heavily depends upon the track as to when it reaches land and how resilient the circulation is to the increase in upper winds. A subtle weakening and shift in orientation of the mid-level steering ridge associated with the passage of an upper mid-latitude trough is forecast to steer the cyclone to the southeast towards the Pilbara coast during Saturday. The cyclone landfall is most likely Sunday morning with considerable variation amongst the guidance. The movement over land later on Sunday and early next week varies considerable in the guidance, a track close to the west Pilbara coast seems the most likely as the system weakens. Tides will be close to the highest astronomical tide over the weekend, exacerbating the risk of a significant storm tide impact, but will depend upon the landfall timing. The slow motion also means that rainfall totals will be higher than for normal cyclone rainfall amounts and cumulative totals in excess of 700mm are possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1930 UTC by Perth TCWC.