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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.
The Brisbane based media is all over it like a rash already.
just linked you in on fb feed
I'll have a listen to what Nitso says as well.
He's the commentator in the OCC videos.
Owen's got a heartbeat, this morning.
this'll do it.
ECMWF predict Owen will re-intensify in the Gulf and then turn around and slowly move along the SE Queensland coast.
Firefighters in Qld will be happy about that.
he's doing it again.
nothing like some mild hysteria ....
serial offender iirc
And channel 7 just laps it up.
OCC appear to be approaching this with a much calmer and objective attitude.
He's a dick online, however I saw a interview. Seemed a shaken up little weather geek.
- Cyclones don't travel in straight lines in that direction ...sooner or later the steering winds will get em
Game on again.
Consensus on this track is pretty strong. The plumes from the ECMWF ensemble give very similar guidance.
His pictogram pretty much matches the following
Latest Cyclone track has Owen going a little further West than BOM had anticipated but seems in line with what HWF and EC put forward several days ago.
Cat 3 now. Meandering along the coast.
Love that description, "meandering". Saturday should be interesting for me with katabatic winds predicted for the Cairns area. They will probably be worse than what we normally would get.
No Like! The last one that tracked down the coast inland went past with barely a breeze and 150mmm of rain. What we didn't know was the amount of rain falling on the hills behind our region further to the west (Gayndah, Biggenden etc). We were consequently smashed here at Maryborough by floodwaters we didn't know were coming. So too Bundaberg. We hope lots of new rainfall gauges and river height monitors will prevent such an expensive 'surprise' in the future, though we are nonetheless preparing for worst case (training new staff, allocating tasks, revising communication protocols etc). Let's hope the internet doesn't break, as the Emergency Services specialists don't have a Plan B?
It did last time. The coastal fibre and the inland one through Kingaroy both failed at the same time. No internet, EFTPOS or ATM's in North Queensland and mobile phones were turned into paper weights.
We have had lots of practice trying to operate a business without internet, EFTPOS or telephones - ever since we were forced on to NBN. Currently, we only have to deal with EFTPOS not working for 15-45 minutes around 5pm (peak hour for us) and slow internet at times. We have also learnt NOT to rely on emergency services. Our biggest costs come from fear-mongering caused by politicians trying to get "strong leadership" coverage and media trying to drive readership. Holidays are being cancelled in their thousands as I type.
@Jacko4650 you're in Maryborough aren't you? My sister is there and lived at Maroondan during that last big flood. She was real worried about being washed away in that event.
Still in the Burra and only just recovering from the last event!
BOM saying this will get to Cat 4 now.
JTWC suggesting maybe only Cat 3 (next 12 hours) with max sustained winds of 90 knots, although I am guessing that's 1 minute sustained winds (not 10 mins)?
Flew Darwin to Sydney on Tuesday morning (1:00 am EST depart) and the electrical storm from this as we flew past the Gulf was very impressive.
Serious rain now in Maryborough. Seemingly small graphics on radar are not doing justice to what is falling and the current tracking is directly along our (Mary) River network. I hope we get a day or two of relatively low rainfall to empty some of it before the main event starts!
Cancellations coming in thick and fast. Visitors bolting back to their respective homes.
BoM still going for Cat4 tonight.
JTWC looking at a Max out of 80knots.
Slightly off topic I know but I think I can see the cause of the problem.
Owen has crossed the coast. Now a Cat2
Interestingly, never made it to Cat4 as per JTWC advice.
GFS has a cyclone off the NW coast around Christmas. Tracking parallel to the coast thankfully.
Nothing on EC.
ACCESS-GE2 spread suggesting similar tracks.
EC multi-week EPS ditto.
Comes and goes on GFS.
Latest run has something in the gulf (nice new year's present) and perhaps another in the Coral Sea.
CMC has something brewing there too. A couple of days earlier.
At the moment ACCESS-S1 favours a Christmas cyclone in the Gulf.
EC EPS has 20-30% chance of a Gulf storm (slightly above climatology), as opposed to 40-50% chance of something spinning up off the Kimberley.
CMC CMC ok sorry, but I just can’t stand the canuck!!
GE2 now less enthusiastic about TC activity over Australia's north after Xmas.
S1 still favouring chances above climatology of a system in the Gulf of Carpentaria after Xmas, however the model has a known convective precipitation bias in that area.
ECMWF EPS still giving 40-50% chance of a storm off the Kimberly coast with increased activity in the Coral Sea afterwards.
What are the other NWP models doing?
GFS likes something off the NW
And something in the Coral Sea
CMC still likes the Gulf
That >200 hours suggests it’s Chinese whispers yet.
The broad ridging on the LR models says to me all and sundry will fizz IMO.
Very fluid and no agreement anywhere really.
This is interesting. Ex Owen having another crack?
00Z GFS taking a hint from CMC although a few days later.
GFS staying with a very active first week of the New Year in the tropics.
There does appear to be a TD forming in the Coral Sea by late-next week. This scenario is favored by a strong Rossby Wave around the same time:
GFS then goes for a triple header on the LR deterministic circa 1st-2nd JAN, several days trailing the RW.
Nil agreement in counterpart models however. AXS?