Resource 2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    The Brisbane based media is all over it like a rash already.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  3. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    just linked you in on fb feed
     
  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    I'll have a listen to what Nitso says as well.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Nitso ?
     
  7. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    He's the commentator in the OCC videos.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    this'll do it.
     
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  10. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    ECMWF predict Owen will re-intensify in the Gulf and then turn around and slowly move along the SE Queensland coast.
     
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  11. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Firefighters in Qld will be happy about that.
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    OMG......
    he's doing it again.
    nothing like some mild hysteria ....
    serial offender iirc
     
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  13. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    And channel 7 just laps it up.
     
  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    OCC appear to be approaching this with a much calmer and objective attitude.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    He's a dick online, however I saw a interview. Seemed a shaken up little weather geek.

    - Cyclones don't travel in straight lines in that direction ...sooner or later the steering winds will get em
     
  16. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    Game on again.
     
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  17. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Consensus on this track is pretty strong. The plumes from the ECMWF ensemble give very similar guidance.
     
  18. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable
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    His pictogram pretty much matches the following

     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Latest Cyclone track has Owen going a little further West than BOM had anticipated but seems in line with what HWF and EC put forward several days ago.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Cat 3 now. Meandering along the coast.
     
  21. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    Love that description, "meandering". Saturday should be interesting for me with katabatic winds predicted for the Cairns area. They will probably be worse than what we normally would get.
     
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  22. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us
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    No Like! The last one that tracked down the coast inland went past with barely a breeze and 150mmm of rain. What we didn't know was the amount of rain falling on the hills behind our region further to the west (Gayndah, Biggenden etc). We were consequently smashed here at Maryborough by floodwaters we didn't know were coming. So too Bundaberg. We hope lots of new rainfall gauges and river height monitors will prevent such an expensive 'surprise' in the future, though we are nonetheless preparing for worst case (training new staff, allocating tasks, revising communication protocols etc). Let's hope the internet doesn't break, as the Emergency Services specialists don't have a Plan B?
     
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  23. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    It did last time. The coastal fibre and the inland one through Kingaroy both failed at the same time. No internet, EFTPOS or ATM's in North Queensland and mobile phones were turned into paper weights.
     
  24. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us
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    We have had lots of practice trying to operate a business without internet, EFTPOS or telephones - ever since we were forced on to NBN. Currently, we only have to deal with EFTPOS not working for 15-45 minutes around 5pm (peak hour for us) and slow internet at times. We have also learnt NOT to rely on emergency services. Our biggest costs come from fear-mongering caused by politicians trying to get "strong leadership" coverage and media trying to drive readership. Holidays are being cancelled in their thousands as I type.
     
  25. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    @Jacko4650 you're in Maryborough aren't you? My sister is there and lived at Maroondan during that last big flood. She was real worried about being washed away in that event.
     
  26. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us
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    Still in the Burra and only just recovering from the last event!
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    BOM saying this will get to Cat 4 now.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    JTWC suggesting maybe only Cat 3 (next 12 hours) with max sustained winds of 90 knots, although I am guessing that's 1 minute sustained winds (not 10 mins)?
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  30. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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  31. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us
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    Flew Darwin to Sydney on Tuesday morning (1:00 am EST depart) and the electrical storm from this as we flew past the Gulf was very impressive.
     
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  32. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us
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    Serious rain now in Maryborough. Seemingly small graphics on radar are not doing justice to what is falling and the current tracking is directly along our (Mary) River network. I hope we get a day or two of relatively low rainfall to empty some of it before the main event starts!
    Cancellations coming in thick and fast. Visitors bolting back to their respective homes.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM still going for Cat4 tonight.
    JTWC looking at a Max out of 80knots.

    [​IMG]
     
  34. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    Slightly off topic I know but I think I can see the cause of the problem.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Owen has crossed the coast. Now a Cat2
    Interestingly, never made it to Cat4 as per JTWC advice.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    GFS has a cyclone off the NW coast around Christmas. Tracking parallel to the coast thankfully.
    Nothing on EC.

    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    ACCESS-GE2 spread suggesting similar tracks.
    EC multi-week EPS ditto.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Comes and goes on GFS.
    Latest run has something in the gulf (nice new year's present) and perhaps another in the Coral Sea.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    CMC has something brewing there too. A couple of days earlier.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    At the moment ACCESS-S1 favours a Christmas cyclone in the Gulf.

    EC EPS has 20-30% chance of a Gulf storm (slightly above climatology), as opposed to 40-50% chance of something spinning up off the Kimberley.
     
  41. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    CMC LOL CMC LOL ok sorry, but I just can’t stand the canuck!!
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    GE2 now less enthusiastic about TC activity over Australia's north after Xmas.
    S1 still favouring chances above climatology of a system in the Gulf of Carpentaria after Xmas, however the model has a known convective precipitation bias in that area.

    ECMWF EPS still giving 40-50% chance of a storm off the Kimberly coast with increased activity in the Coral Sea afterwards.

    What are the other NWP models doing?
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    GFS likes something off the NW

    [​IMG]

    And something in the Coral Sea
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    CMC still likes the Gulf
    [​IMG]
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That >200 hours suggests it’s Chinese whispers yet.
    The broad ridging on the LR models says to me all and sundry will fizz IMO.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    For sure.
    Very fluid and no agreement anywhere really.
     
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  48. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    This is interesting. Ex Owen having another crack?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    00Z GFS taking a hint from CMC although a few days later.

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS staying with a very active first week of the New Year in the tropics.
    There does appear to be a TD forming in the Coral Sea by late-next week. This scenario is favored by a strong Rossby Wave around the same time:


    GFS then goes for a triple header on the LR deterministic circa 1st-2nd JAN, several days trailing the RW.


    Nil agreement in counterpart models however. AXS?
     
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