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2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMHO honestly the LR models (actually anything > tau ~240) are really fairly useless at predicting cyclogenesis. and I dont see what you are seeing in the current models.

    Interestingly though, there is a non-zero probability off NW WA / NT in the next 24 hrs though! ;) 6% LOL

     
  2. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which long-range model output can you see?

    The long-range cyclone forecasts (i.e. multi-week) work better in the Southern Hemisphere than they do in the Northern Hemisphere, because cyclogenesis is so tightly linked to the MJO.

    If you have a model which has good skill in predicting the movement of the MJO, you can have skill in predicting cyclone formation.

    Read this
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cilida looking nice at cat. 4 almost reached 5. Rare in that region atm early season.
     
  4. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I only have access to the standard GFS, EC, ACCESSR/G, CMC models. Are the TC specific LR models available anywhere (freely?)
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And how about your thoughts on the TD progged in the Coral Sea ~120 hours?
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting but lots of shear will likely hamper development...
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the recent Latitude comparisons paint the picture for MJO relevance imo
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In fact it only appears on GFS no other models that I have access to.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It appears on EC and moves into the GoC where it deepens. But yes, I get your point on LR models & Cyclones. I agree.
     
  11. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I saw that, but with the amount of shear, and no clear steering - I'm just gonna watch for the moment.

     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks, I knew that, but I don’t think they are the TC specific EC forecasts mentioned in Rush’s post above are they? And are you predicting cyclogenesis based on MJO phase / intensity alone?
     
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  14. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EMON: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Seasonal Prediction Ensemble Forecast System
    EMOM: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Seasonal Prediction Ensemble Forecast System (anomalies based on lead dependent model climatology, weekly - Thursday only)

    Neither of these are the tc specific one.
     
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Btw, am doing all this from 40,000 ft and 863 km/h above GAB at the moment! How awesome is in air wifi nowadays! Very fast and low latency!
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not alone, but it can be used with other teleconnections.

    The specific TC forecasts aren't really specific, they are within the ECMWF EPS (ensemble) model. The forecasts are just tailored for looking for probability of a TC as far as I am aware.

    The ones Rush alludes to, are not public.
     
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  17. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ECMWF multi-week cyclone product uses their 'Extended Range Forecast Model' - it is the standard medium-range Ensemble Prediction system**run at coarser resolution so it can run out to 46 days.

    The operational EC storm tracker (developed by Vitart and Prates - see that 2012 Newsletter I linked to recently) is then applied to the outputs to determine locations of possible tropical storm activity.

    It isn't a 'specific TC forecast' system. It's just a weather model designed to 'bridge the gap' to give skill in the multi-week space (or sub-seasonal space) between a traditional weather forecast and a long-range seasonal forecast.

    The Seasonal Prediction Model System is a slightly different beast. Its atmospheric model is slightly outside the standard Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model used by the ECMWF for their Deterministic/Ensemble medium-extended weather forecast system. It doesn't get updated as frequently because for seasonal prediction you have to run long hindcasts to calibrate your model.

    According to this the current Season Prediction Model (SEAS5) uses IFS v43r1 which is two years behind the latest weather models, see this.

    The Seasonal Prediction Model System is designed to be run out to six months.

    IMO you really need an ensemble prediction system to give guidance for any longer-range forecast. As we see the deterministic runs really flip-flop and only give you one possible outcome out of many.

    @trappers I don't there there are any publicly available multi-week cyclone products. The only extended range EC products that are publicly available are these ones.

    **52 member ensemble coupled to the full ocean model.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks.
    What sort of res is it run at?
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    0.4° x 0.4° or about 44km
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has two cyclones - one off the Kimberly coast and another in the gulf.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    EC also in the Gulf.
    [​IMG]

    CMC
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensemble stormtrack plot @240 hours ( storm 73U) is 1 of 13 under analysis.
     
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  22. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have disappeared from tau 186 in the latest GFS run but both EC and GFS have mutiple lones spinning up post tau 230 ... seems likely something will happen 1st week of Jan, but no gonna have a stab at what just yet.
     
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  23. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok GFS is back on-board at Tau 180 with a GoC Cyclone. EC is also showing a low in the same area at the same time but no cyclone as it crosses the coast before it can deepen ... beginning to look more likely now.

     
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  24. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    even ACCESSG thinks something will be there (just not a cyclone!)
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some room to move on that thing out past Fiji too.
    Send it West on the lazy Susan conveyor, perhaps?
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has a cyclone developing in the gulf and re-intensifying in the Coral sea

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has the cyclone in the gulf a couple of days later.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 00Z 26 Dec GFS solution out to 384 is rather terrifying! (and also a bit unbelievable ;) )
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS GE2 and S1 both suggest high chances of two storms in the next 10 days. One in the Coral Sea moving East, and another one forming further East and possibly impacting Fiji.
     
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  30. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Channel 7 just gave sensible long-range guidance out to next Wednesday re: cyclone formation. I wonder where they get their model data from for their visualisation.

    If only the Bureau did it.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Higgings? Or one of those muppet social media sources...?
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think Jane looks at the available models, just like we do.
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watch the TCFP in another 24hrs
     
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  35. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fujiwhara ?
     
  37. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is quite an extraordinary difference in the model solutions less than 72 hrs out. The EC solution is very very different to the GFS solution, and strangely ACCESS is more similar to GFS than EC?!
     
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  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's all happening.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and GFS 850hPa Zonal wind anomolies are quite similar ,but perhaps not conducive to sustained activity ?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Starting to happen.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Cyclone Penny (Cat 1) has been named.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good luck spotting a Dvorak Classification in that mess, should get really interesting once it hits the Coral Sea.
    Structure looks more evident on Doppler Radar. The 'eye wall' looks to be dissecting Weipa over the next few hours:
     
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  46. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    This system does not have any 'eye wall' its just the center of the low on radar.

    Agree this is not a good system atm for any dvorak classification. Dvorak does not do well with intensity estimation,
    on large monsoonal lows in the early stages. Nor does do well with midget cyclones.


    FYI image 1 Tropical Cyclone Penny
    [​IMG]


    image 2 is what a cyclone with a eyewall looks like.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    he's back....
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    JTWC likes it getting to 65 knot winds in the next 72 hours, however is expected to weaken once it turns the corner.
    [​IMG]

    Currently, little more than a fart in space:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Over night when the atmosphere cools this depression will likely,
    begin reorganizing. With warm sst neutral shear and good convergence
    the feeder bands should supply Lift into the storms via strong updrafts from that convergence.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Spiral banding ia already beginning too tighten on the depression.
     
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  50. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep but what will happen in 3-4 days? expecting it to recurve thanks to an upper level ridge which will also stifle poleward outflow. Increasing shear and lower SSTs will weaken it as it comes back at Aus ... or at least that is what the models hint at right now. If it slows a bit, stalls a while, it could change.
     
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