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Resource 2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, GFS is going for the stall.

    EPS keeps it mostly over 980hPa through the recurve, so not really a strong system by the measurement of intensity.
     
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  2. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    I prefer too wait another two days if the tutt cell is over qlds as per GFS thinks if so upper level shear will be the issue.
     
  3. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    [​IMG]
    250mb
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    I would be preparing for a cyclone with possibly upto cat3 core winds crossing south of townsville.
     
  6. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Actually reminds me of a deja vu. possible Debbie like system only more expansive.

    Outta here now. was just a brief heads up.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  8. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Fresh GFS 4 ya trap
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't like this one! A low followed by a weak cyclone a bit further north may bring flooding rains to the Wide Bay area. Early days I know, but I def preferred the other models.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has it becoming a tropical low as it crosses the coast.

     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a very small perturbation atm. WISHE in very low percentile imo.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC is very similar to EC for this one.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  14. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Penny is trying too embed a core atm. Lets see how she looks in the morning. Also as you likely already know
    the stronger the system gets the more it should trend to the southern eps ens tracks.

    [​IMG]



    Also this system was 50kt many hours ago, not 40 as per the eps plot.
    [​IMG]

    purple time stamp on the bottom is actual pass time of the sample.


    Current
    Date (mmddhhmm): 01030634
    SATCON: MSLP = 984 hPa MSW = 58 knots
    SATCON Member Consensus: 56.0 knots
    Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 64 knots
    Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
    Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
     
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  15. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    ec thinking it may get a bit gusty.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM think it's going become a low.

     
  17. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    EC 12z thinks penny is large enough to protect the center from dry air intrusion
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GOES 17 image Low Level Water Vapour- Bottom left. Substantial at mid level also. Can we expect substantial radial inflow from this one ?
     
  19. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Its still fairly moist out there where the cyclone is.Only thing been holding the system back is shear in past
    12 hrs. The low level structure is still v/good ascat and microwave confirm this.

    [​IMG]
    pass show 40-45kts winds with still a good overall structure.


    [​IMG]
    obviously the center is displaced to nne by shear but the banding structure in the low levels is decent.

    37 comisite shows this well.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    The curved band is still intense and blue area is v//moist low level cloud around the system..


    00z ukmet
    [​IMG]



    current sat estimate


    2019JAN05 073000 3.1 993.3 47.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.24 -14.83 SHEAR N/A -27.4 -15.70 -155.80 FCST HIM-8 25.1

    doing just a tad better in the past hour.
     
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  20. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    still pumping up towers atm even with the shear, the divergence is likely off -setting some of the shear affects.
    - very strong divergence + 30

    - strong divergence + 20

    - moderate divergence +10

    - weak divergence +5

    [​IMG]
    Plots running @ 50 thats massive lift available
    blow up the loop and its easy to see over shooting tops

    [​IMG]

    Not thinking the system will fizzle out so quickly as per the bom TOA in the track.
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Agree those plots you posted above K show weak convergence and a horrendous mid-level shear forecast.


    EC thinks the mid-level shear will some what relax with the storms fwd annular motion as the system tracks towards the coast.
    [​IMG]

    The upper shear forecast is mint thinks the ec.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    As you can see atm the ec thinks the system comes in lopsided and may have some punch still left in it.


    12 hrs is the best time to access how thing are going.


    Moisture feed drawing from the rich mjo to the ne atm.
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some models are predicting a crossing near Cairns. I might have a very wet arse in a couple of days time.
     
  24. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a stubborn little one this one. The deep shear profile is giving it the wobbles but the vorticity doesnt want to give up the fight. GFS suggesting it heading for the Coast with an increase in ascent. - 700 and 600hPa ascent plots below. Might be some nice tall clouds.
     
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  26. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    no real surprise sat data estimations dribbling in suggesting penny. a 40-45kt tropical storm

    2019JAN06 001000 2.9 997.2 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF ON OFF -58.45 -60.35 UNIFRM N/A -15.0 -17.29 -154.86 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

    UW - CIMSS
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    ADT-Version 9.0
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 06 JAN 2019 Time : 001000 UTC
    Lat : 17:17:24 S Lon : 154:51:36 E


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    2.9 / 997.2mb/ 43.0kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    2.9 3.1 3.1
     
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  27. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    I know i should only be looking @12hr chunks. But since vortcity is mentioned . That 18z GFS was a interesting L/R
    run. As you can can see it thinks that voracity will carry across the topend into the indo.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    that would be persistence
     
  28. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    WTPS31 PGTW 060300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 025
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    060000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 155.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 155.0E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    061200Z --- 17.5S 154.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





    JT is over Cairns as weak tropical storm, would bring some flooding and tree's down .
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This scenario is echoed by both EC, BOM & The Canuck.
    Seemingly, it looks like JTWC is tending to a similar destiny for Penny also.
     
  30. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ground is pretty saturated here ATM. Won't take much to make rivers and creeks flood and not alot of wind would be needed to topple a few trees.
     
  31. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    [​IMG]

    Big margin for error on the track. Without dynamic wind modeling its not much use to tie down any wind impact area,
    not dig just fact.


    [​IMG]
    EC forecast for possible 100+ wind gusts impact area.



    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Bulk of the precip is well south of the center.


    Penny has been a under performer, really don't think system has any real chance to make a name
    in the indo. Broadscale subsidence is the forecast for the indo.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...And here comes Mona from waaay out in the Pacific rounding Fiji and taking the sub-trop ridge conveyor, bound Westward.
    Weighing in at a whopping 45 knots, she's not likely to have legs passed 20S as she is hindered by vertical W shear (25-30knots).

    Might bring some ground swell to NZ & SE QLD, though.
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Determs
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week looks to be an interesting watch for TDs. Decent Rossby Wave passing though early next week which looks to light the fuse for the tropical depressions in the Gulf &/or The Kimberley - depending on the model you look at.
     
  37. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thoughts on the TD circa Cape York this week? If it were to swing into the Gulf it may have some legs on Friday.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    890hPa now. LOL.
    EC bottoms out @979hPa, now that's divergent. Nonetheless, both models suggest it re-curves around the NW coast and into Shark Bay.
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Model guidance now suggesting the NW TD/TC hits a building ST ridge to the South and gets deflected out West into the IO, by this weekend.
     
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  41. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or two cyclones form, one hits WA and the other moves into the Indian Ocean.
     
  42. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    [​IMG]

    On paper the GOC system looks good for a rain event over wide spreed area's.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been watching the timestamps on this one, wondering if it can beat the NW system to being named Riley - doesn't look like it will deepen quick enough though.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    TC Riley.
     
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  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come back to the coast man!
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BRB, just screwing over the oil and gas industry first.
     
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  47. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They're fine. They get ample warning.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, forsure.
    Just threw it in for lols
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    TC Savannah
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pipped at the post by 8-10 hours!

    EDIT: Not yet TC status. 12 hours or so away yet.
     
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