Resource 2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Tropical Cyclone Riley already humming along at Cat 2 Status this arvo.
    JTWC maxing out sustained winds of 65 knots in the next 48 hours, before it's tour of the Indian Ocean deep...
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Quick look @ GFS suggests the broad monsoon lpa (eddy) /x savannah will likely keep the substantial moisture flowing for over the area.

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    GFS and AXS still very divergent.
     
  4. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    96P INVEST
    As of 12:00 UTC Jan 31, 2019:

    Location: 16.6°S 138.5°E
    Maximum Winds: 15 kt
    Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
    [​IMG]

    EC suggest's this has the hallmarks to become a landphoon.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty
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    Lived up there for years and never saw one of these, nor this amount of rain before. I can’t think of anything similar in the last 40yrs.
     
  6. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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    We are approaching 40 inches of rain in 6 and a half days. Bit damp.
     
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  7. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    You in Townsville? I'm from there and can't recall anything this extreme either.
     
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  8. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty
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    These are totals more associated with Tully to innisfail, triggered by geography.
     
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  9. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    You got that right. This year's golden gumboot award might go to Townsville or Ingham. Sorry Babinda and Tully, you might miss out this time.
     
  10. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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    Yep from talking to my mother in law this has even exceeded the 1946 flood which was before the dam was built. Place near the dam has just had another 12 inches in the last 4 hours so plenty more inflow unfortunately. Love to send it down south and to the western areas that need the rain.
     
  11. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    I believe the embankment along Queens Rd in Hermit Park was built after the 1946 flood. Probably useless in this situation. Hope you're in a safe part of town. You have a rough night ahead. When this eventually moved back north it will be our turn. Tinaroo dam topped the spillway this afternoon so anything can happen now.
     
  12. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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    Behind the Hyde Park Centre but in a high set house.Pretty much alot of homes on the river side of Hermit Park are flooding. Queens Rd was a river on footage I saw this afternoon. Parts of Railway Estate and South Townsville are flooded. Rooneys bridge has been shut since yesterday morning.
     
  13. emkae

    emkae One of Us
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    How is dam capacity measured? ABC news just showed someone saying the dam near Townsville was “at 230% capacity...”
     
  14. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty
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    That’s rare too...
     
  15. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    Been six or seven years since it last happened.
     
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  16. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    It's a geographical measurement of some sort. It's the estimated volume of water held back not the actual height above the spillway.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    Hope your vehicle is parked elsewhere like halfway up Castle Hill. My niece lives at Wulguru and she's got water starting to come into her laundry. God only knows what's going to happen overnight.
     
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  18. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty
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    It's a pretty serious situation developing up there. probably a bigger effect than most cyclones. The forecast is including tornadoes now too.

    It's case of WTF weather around the world this past month.
     
  19. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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  20. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Unfortunately there's been no westerlies to steer the low away. Until they kick in the low will just meander about where it is.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Keep an eye on the SPCZ over the next week, as the MJO stalls/backtracks around the region.
    Models showing increased TD, with Ensembles in alignment for good cyclone development - with a Westerly tracks as the ridge directs them South & West, North of NZ.
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. eyewall

    eyewall Early Days

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    Yeah its nice looking monsoon gyre on the model with a few vorts spining up out of head of gyre and circling inside the gyre as they do.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Major ensemble and deterministic models are going for TC formation in the SW Coral Sea, by the weekend.
    EC & GFS suggest it'll be SE QLD-bound and looks intense on the 12Z run.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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    SE Qld can have it. We definitely don't want any of it.
     
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  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    well statistically SE Qld and N NSW are due for 180 degree shift in weather. They seriously need water, and they are well overdue for their normal damp horrid weather.
     
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  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Frothing For OMA

    A deep bombing coral sea cyclone straight from the 90's
    [​IMG]
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    SSTs to potentially hinder intensity/development of TC Oma where it tracks South of >24S:
    [​IMG]

    GFS is talking smack IMO. It has the TC bottoming out in 940's hPa central pressure as it's levels in latitude with Brisbane (~26C SST). lol
    Whilst EC stays humble at ~976hPa central pressure.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    12Z EC run. Not as strong when it gets to NZ.
     
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  35. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    A bit of swell for the east coast at least before it goes off to the NZ graveyard
     
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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Do you think it will get pulled in by the SST or is the path governed by the 500 Hpa plot??????

    Yeah GFS and ECMWF seeing this a bit differently. GFS Kind of has this thing hitting SE Queensland. A bombing 940 Cyclone that close will destroy the beaches and Goldy. But latest runs shows signs that GFS is more back in line with ECMWF.

    The ECMWF looks a bit more productive surf wise.

    Rain in NZ is that like a thow away comment. Comment should be long period NE swell hits the GONG.

    I cant believe the BOM are not noting Fiji Cyclone weather warnings for TC OMA. They show no warnings current.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS just went all in. Oh My GOODNESS

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    JTWC states Low Confidence in the models track and it's well out of our region for now (it's 600kms from Vanuatu).
    Oma is highlighted in the Coral Sea regional outlook, but any impacts on the Aus continent are still ~4 days away, best case scenario, yet.
    I's likely to the only impacts Aus will see of it, will be in the form of swell on Sunday. Swell is in the BoM forecast for-sure.

    More to the point the STR building over the SE of our continent (Wed/Thurs) will send it NZ bound IMO.
     
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  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS really is my crystal ball into the future and ECMWF my moderator.

    The progged cyclone location in the Coral Sea really is perfect for long period swells on the East Coast. Even if hits ECMWF levels its gonna be ballistic

    Cyclone Yasi 929 hPa
    Cyclone Gita 927 hPa
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Latest EC guidance has a northern NSW hit a possibility.

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sounds like we should have a good idea by 00z run Sunday.
     
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Maybe it will just hover in the Coral see as per Access G
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Still looking confusing on EC

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Spare a thought for lil ole Norfolk Island on the latest GFS run.
    [​IMG]
    EC still going for a Fraser Island backhand. Noosa's 50 year storm my resurrect a few Bohdi's.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    Still a fair bit of difference between EC ensembles and deterministic.
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Huge
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Better convergence between ensembles and deterministic on EC now. Looks like SE QLD and northern NSW are in play, although she will probably stay offshore.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
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    Well on that run they calculate zero chance of being below Fraser Island so SEQ and Northern NSW look ok
    We could do with the rain though
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Does the 4 Dayer draw in its own subject analysis of all models? If so, who authors (experts) it.

    [​IMG]