1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

2018/2019 Australian Cyclone Season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,224
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Location:
    Monaro
    Great question. I'll doubt you'll get an informed answer here. My working assumption was what you said, ie own (manual) analysis then signed off for release each day.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  2. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,898
    Likes Received:
    8,517
     
  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,898
    Likes Received:
    8,517
    Ive always presumed for the BOM it was their "in house models" which in this case would be ACCESS-R?
    @Rush
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  4. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2014
    Messages:
    171
    Likes Received:
    104
  5. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2014
    Messages:
    171
    Likes Received:
    104
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    The latest Access R suggest a more stational Coral Sea Event if anything.

    [​IMG]

    Residual Swell from above NZ hitting NSW
     
    nfip likes this.
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    big difference in the 4dayer compared to latest Access R. Access R has Oma east of Mckay, where as 4 dayer east of Fraser.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    NAGEM now onboard with EC, this via JTWC:
     
  9. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,898
    Likes Received:
    8,517
    Wow
    At least 2 of the models over the weekend had it whacking Auckland Friday
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    JTWC still seem to siding with GFS on its track but it’s only because the have to track it ‘somewhere’.
    IMO they’ve been very honest and made it very clear that not even they are firm on it’s track beyond 48/72 hours.
    A nervous wait for SE QLD and North Island NZ.
     
    nfip, TomGroggon, Belly and 1 other person like this.
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,185
    Likes Received:
    48,150
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    The Bom's 4 dayer tends to look like EC most of the time.
    As it does in this case.
     
    nfip, 7wombathead and MisterMxyzptlk like this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,185
    Likes Received:
    48,150
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I believe he's answered this before, they use EC most of the time.
     
    nfip, POW_hungry and MisterMxyzptlk like this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC staying with the SE-QLD stall on the 00z run.
    [​IMG]
     
    Trail Blazer and 7wombathead like this.
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    [​IMG]

    Yep very similar and different to GFS, although GFS is coming back into line. Thats a Very Very stationary cyclone. Oma (Grandma in dutch) is too old to fluff off to NZ

    Whatever its great set up for the points up north.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Oma entering the Coral Sea today - the eye is becoming more visible now (click GIF to play animation):
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Latest JTWC update makes for fascinating reading, as the low transitions from being Extra-TC to Cold Core Low, remaining in flux of deterioration & moderate re-intensification - due to it's own upwelling of colder SSTs (24/25C SST) & as it moves South.
    Core winds are tending a little more lack lustre on the latest guidance - irrespective of it's track beyond 72 hours.
    [​IMG]
    There's alot of hype for this system swell-wise and I am struggling to see a whole lot of validity for the Eastern Seaboard ATM.
    IMO, right now, it's looking like either; a milder version of what was all hyped OR a pysch-out EC 180 switcheroo back up-north.
     
    nfip and 7wombathead like this.
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    I guess the hype early was about 10 to 15 ft surf at 18 secs. But who wants to surf that (Maybe) Now its a manageable 4 to 8 ft at 15 secs for 4 days.

    Its about the location of that OM in a prime swell generating window for more than 4 days if you live up north.

    Very slow moving Cyclone at Pow Image shown above.
     
    nfip, The Plowking and POW_hungry like this.
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    I don't see waves for us
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    00Z- 06Z UD comparison
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, but then there's the horrific cross-shore winds for 90% of the coast Port Mac to Bundy....
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    To remove dirunal factors, do you have the 17FEB 0600Z Div plot?
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Oma and her fixation with '2'....
    [​IMG]
     
    Kletterer and 7wombathead like this.
  23. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,224
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Location:
    Monaro
    The latest swellnet notes focused more on cyclone track model divergence and some French archipelago near new Caledonia disrupting the sea state generated under the primary fetch aimed at the southern nsw swell window. This is for the initial NE/e swell.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Full Moon this week/King Tides + Significant waves heights for SE QLD = Coastal Destruction.
    Noosa's erroding waterfront is back, high on the agenda by the end of the week.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    But that 10% will be gold if you can find some solitude.

    Oma does seem to be downgrading its pressure but holding position.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Looks consistent.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    The Shear Tendency plots perhaps not too convincing that she will head much further South imo.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    06Z (latest) GFS deterministic holding ground. SE-Bound.
     
    7wombathead and The Plowking like this.
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,185
    Likes Received:
    48,150
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC now suggests it will head north and not affect Australia too much.

    [​IMG]

    So while we have little agreement in the models, anything is possible.
     
    nfip, POW_hungry and Kletterer like this.
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,164
    Likes Received:
    9,544
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Random cyclone random tracking.
     
    Belly, 7wombathead and Claude Cat like this.
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    Imagine if this was a snow storm in winter on this forum. It would be hilarious.
     
    The Plowking, Belly and Trail Blazer like this.
  33. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    170
    That's sick!
     
  34. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    170
    "Us" being? Sorry for the ignorance. Wollongong 2 - 2.5 m by weeks end, presently 1-1.5 m.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  35. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,224
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Location:
    Monaro
    Us referred to by Donzah would be southern nsw or Hunter and south. Donzah is in the Wollongong area.
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,076
    Likes Received:
    17,175
    Location:
    South Co.
    we'd be calling blocking high or ridged.
    edit * " steering influence "
     
    #286 nfip, Feb 19, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2019
    7wombathead likes this.
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Models remain divergent on 12z runs, beyond 48 hour track.
    JTWC 15z update still not favouring guidance >48 hours:
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,164
    Likes Received:
    9,544
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    The divergence really is quite incredible this close in.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    This.

    I'm not feeling the vibe.

    Looks like decaying Tropical Storm that will swing into noosa
    Strong southerly fetch.

    Any swell down this way will have some wind really close.
     
  40. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,224
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Location:
    Monaro
    As I often say, there will be swell, just how much. Looks like it comes out of the islands swell shadow on Weds and there's enough fetch (short but strong) on the e/se side of the system to send something south. But yeah for 'us' the main event seems to be the merge later in the week.
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    But we also look to be under the intrusion of a gale force onshore SE
     
  42. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,224
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Location:
    Monaro
    Fri but then weakening from then onwards. Swell probably won't fill in to sat or sun. I think Sunday looks pretty good.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    RE: Immediately above. Both scenarios are hypothetical choose your own adventures at this stage. Models are pointless beyond 3 days for this system, including it's wind field.

    Currently:
    [​IMG]
     
    Belly likes this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    AXS R/G still siding with EC on TC Oma.
    Fraser Island drive-by.
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    Thats my vibe
    I've told @smackies to bunker down in Noosa
     
    smackies and POW_hungry like this.
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,185
    Likes Received:
    48,150
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    direct strike.
    Probabilities looking very strong now.

    [​IMG]
     
    POW_hungry and 7wombathead like this.
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    "go back to where you came from "
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    Media on TV now

    "its not expected to come anywhere near the coast"

    Europeans
    Hold my XXXX
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    46,791
    Likes Received:
    15,746
    Location:
    Melbourne, Oz
    Damn chaos theory.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona