2019 NH Cyclone/Typhoon/Hurricane season

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by trappers, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    First named storm was Hurricane Alvin (#01E) which petered out after briefly reaching Cat 1 strength.

    Tropical Storm Barbara (#02E) is currently intensifying, however, and could be more interesting although also likely to be a fish storm

    JTWC is predicting it to be a decent fish storm peaking at 95 kt (1 min sustained) which is a high end Cat 2 Hurricane (~Cat 3 TC on Aus Scale).

    Current presentation not great with no clear banding and LLCC covered by CDO. SST's later into the track are not great either (27-28 °C) but she is presently over 29-30C water which helps.



     
    SnowBound and POW_hungry like this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,161
    Likes Received:
    22,327
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I haven’t looked at it in any detail but looks like some considerably dry air to it’s north?
     
  3. GOES17_1km_wv_201907010515_6.75_15.25_-120.00_-106.50_wv1_ltng17_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.gif Looks to be in RI with aleast 50% of a eyewall atm.

     
  4. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Yep definitely rapidly intensifying, but dont see an eyewall yet - everything covered by CDO and no recent MW passes to check - RGB over the last 6 hrs showing the increase in convection.

     
  5. Yeah not on visible sat yet. but micro showed the half wall spiral low level cyan inner ring.

    20190701.0129.coriolis.x.color37.02EBARBARA.40kts-1003mb-107N-1114W.089pc.jpg

     
  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Ahhh I was looking at the later MW shot (02:23Z) which is not quite as clear (see below) - it is 6:10 UTC now so these were 4-5 hrs ago. The most recent convective explosion only has taken place in the last hour, so will be interesting to see the next MW image.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Broad eye feature evident in latest MW
     
  8. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Nice little upgrade overnight! Interesting given the SSTs are not spectacular. It peaks at 13° N : 125° W, so it is intensifying significantly through 27-29 °C waters ... traditionally boarder-line
    [​IMG]
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Good night #Hurricane #Barbara. This image taken shortly before nightfall (20 min ago) from #GOES17 shows lovely overshooting tops in relief thanks to the low sun angle - 02 July 2019 01:20UTC GOES-WEST Band 3 - 860 nm (near IR) #HurricaneBarbara #02E Levels slightly modified to highlight cloud top relief, light sharpening applied, light vignetting applied ... cos it looks cool :) .
     
    Claude Cat and POW_hungry like this.
  10. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
  11. Be no supise to see this system when @ major status (cat 3 sshs),
    durring a eyewall replacement, take on a annular tuck tyre structure
    wth the model sst and moderate mid level shear combo.
     
  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Too lazy to repeat the post so ...
     
    User has resigned and Claude Cat like this.
  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    30,250
    Likes Received:
    13,617
    Location:
    Blue Mts
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,796
    Likes Received:
    17,063
    Location:
    Canberra
    Wicked little beast.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
  16. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Some potential for a tropical system to develop in the northern gulf over the next week. Climatology would suggest this system remains relatively weak however conditions at this stage do not appear to be too hostile overall so probably worth keeping an eye on.



    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A trough of low pressure located over south-central Georgia is
    producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to
    move southward or southwestward during the next day or two, and a
    broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
    Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected
    to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
    to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward
    across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a
    tropical cyclone develops, this system has the potential to produce
    heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf
    Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall
    threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast
    office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the
    Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida
    peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    Forecaster Cangialosi

     
  17. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Most recent EC and GFS runs have it hitting Houston between 980 hPa and 1000 hPa ... not massive, but if she stalls in the GOM for any length of time the outcome could be very different! The Ensembles seem fairly consistent though.

     
    Orebound likes this.
  18. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Hello HWRF! #94L
     
    POW_hungry and Kletterer like this.
  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,651
  20. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    NHC has begun issuing advisories for this system with the cyclone expected to reach minimal hurricane strength prior to landfall on the Louisiana coast sometime on Saturday. Regardless of any potential wind threats this system looks likely to be a major rain maker and subsequently cause problems with flooding in an area that is extremely low lying and susceptible to large flood events.



    Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
    1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

    High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
    data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
    northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
    initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
    speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
    poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
    some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
    gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
    chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
    Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
    storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
    Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
    advisories are being initiated at this time.

    The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
    motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
    center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
    global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
    southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
    toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
    into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
    from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
    into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
    to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
    Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
    would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
    guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
    farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
    GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
    Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
    extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
    model since it has performed well during this system's
    pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
    disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
    especially beyond 48-72 hours.

    Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
    the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
    with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
    however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
    become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
    conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
    global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
    temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
    that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
    intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
    hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
    72 hours.

    Key Messages:

    1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
    Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
    to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
    weekend.

    2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
    Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
    The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
    along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
    storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
    in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
    to any advice given by local officials.

    3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
    Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
    could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
    Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

    4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
    and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
    more information, see products from your local National Weather
    Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
    96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
    120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart



    Still a fair spread in model forecast tracks but the general theme is for a landfall somewhere over LA.

    Intensity forecasts are in that strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane range but as mentioned in the above forecast discussion a period of RI cannot be ruled out.



     
  21. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    HWRF still appears quite aggressive with the development of this system getting it up to a high cat 2 type of thing prior to landfall.



    Then of course there is the mesoscale CAM models like the NAM 3km that have simply blown up and overcooked the hell out of it.

     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,844
    Likes Received:
    51,095
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,651
    Now I know how Noah felt.
     
  24. Consolidating system.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Kletterer, Claude Cat and Orebound like this.
  25. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Yeah looks sexy on the VIS, not so great on the MW and IR though ... will get better in next 12 hrs. Good outflow

     

    Attached Files:

  26. Yeah mw shows some nw shear. I never really look @ dvorak in that basin when aerial reconnaissance running..
     
  27. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Cant post the gif here (too large) so here is a link to the tweet.
     
    User has resigned and Orebound like this.
  28. These systems where the centre keeps relocating are a pain
    to follow until they reach. ts intensity.
     
    trappers and Orebound like this.
  29. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    272
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Now named TS Barry. Looks like winds will die off not long after landfall, though sustained rainfall continuing well beyond landfall.
    Image 1 below 5 day Wind Swath.
    Image 2 below 5 day Rain Swath - note depths are in inches.
    Both from HWRF 12Z.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    POW_hungry and Orebound like this.
  30. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Still only modest pressure falls in TS Barry via latest recon data with the system still being adversely affected by northerly shear. Hard to see this shear relaxing too much for the duration of the storms life over water in my opinion. Model intensity guidance is tending towards reflecting this with a distinct downtrend over the past couple of model cycles.

     
  31. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,101
    Likes Received:
    4,199
    Location:
    An airport
    Again Animated GIF too large so just posting tweet.
     
    User has resigned and Orebound like this.
  32. Even with the shear this lopsided tc is slowly getting a little stronger.


    Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 0:04:30Z
     
    Orebound likes this.
  33. Rgem has handled this storm very well so far.


    rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh1-36.gif



    recon_AF302-0602A-BARRY.png

     
    Orebound, Claude Cat and trappers like this.
  34. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    Old Barry is still having his fair share of issues.

    Image speaks for itself really though some of the smaller mesovortices rotating around the broader circulation have been interesting to observe.



    Bring on the Westpac stuff!
     
    #37 Orebound, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
    POW_hungry and User has resigned like this.
  35. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    272
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Another recent rain swath map from HWRF

     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  36. Humm is someone itching on a chase i wonder. Global models atm thinking wpac will do its thing.
     
    Orebound likes this.
  37. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    205
    Location:
    Darwin NT
    ;) @Jwintermix Ha yeah it's getting to that time of the year where we start looking forward to a few trips up to the Westpac for sure! I still think it will be well into August before there is anything significant enough to bother with up there however, although as you know it doesn't take much to catch you off guard with something developing quickly against the odds.

    Always got an eye on it.

    MJO still not heading towards that "game on" mode just yet.

     
    Kletterer and User has resigned like this.
  38. POW_hungry and Kletterer like this.
  39. 19071415.png JMA has the area of interest marked.


    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 135E WNW 10 KT.

    download.png Looks a large monsoonal gyre.

    The GFS develops two systems eventually outta the gyre.

    44.gif

    The model see's divergence in the uppers. See how it pans out @ the least any system that
    forms and tracks into the scs should inhence the sw monsoon. A good thing for the PI.


     
    Claude Cat, Orebound and POW_hungry like this.
  40. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    272
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,796
    Likes Received:
    17,063
    Location:
    Canberra
    Nice bit of CAPE in the region.
     
  42. a-00.png
    092 WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 15.8N 132.5E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 17.2N 126.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = NNNN



    .........................................................................................................................


    May get some help from a cckw. 18-24
    2019-07-15 23_18_27-chi200.orig.sum.pacific.7 - Windows Photo Viewer.png

     
  43. sat_20190716_0800_animation (1).gif


    JMA

    TS 1905 (Danas)
    Issued at 07:00 UTC, 16 July 2019

    <Analysis at 06 UTC, 16 July>
    Scale -
    Intensity -
    Center position N17°05' (17.1°)
    E125°40' (125.7°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
    Central pressure 994 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
    ≥ 30 kt wind area SE 560 km (300 NM)
    NW 390 km (210 NM)

    <Forecast for 18 UTC, 16 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N17°50' (17.8°)
    E124°05' (124.1°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
    Central pressure 994 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 17 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
    E123°10' (123.2°)
    Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
    Central pressure 990 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 18 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N22°05' (22.1°)
    E122°05' (122.1°)
    Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
    Central pressure 985 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)

    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N25°55' (25.9°)
    E122°30' (122.5°)
    Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (10 kt)
    Central pressure 985 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)

    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 20 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N29°55' (29.9°)
    E122°30' (122.5°)
    Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (10 kt)
    Central pressure 990 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 July>
    Intensity -
    Center position of probability circle N33°00' (33.0°)
    E121°35' (121.6°)
    Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
    Central pressure 994 hPa
    Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
     
    Claude Cat and Orebound like this.
  44. Others are now seeing the cckw.
    ..png
     
    POW_hungry and Orebound like this.
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    64,167
    Likes Received:
    11,518
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    For the moment, this one looks like swinging in a northerly arc to hit southern Japan (Kyushu) and S. Korea around Friday next week.
    There was a bad one last year that hit just as the rainy season was pushing north, and the combined moisture produced huge rain totals and devastating floods. Is could be in exactly the same area, albeit 3 weeks later.
     
  46. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 27, 2004
    Messages:
    29,297
    Likes Received:
    26,581
    Location:
    in the cupboard covered in dust
    My current neck of the woods.
    Driving rain not too much wind.
    It's been a real mixed bag up here lately, from complete monsoonal washout to blue skies
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    64,167
    Likes Received:
    11,518
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    You're in Taiwan?