1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

2020 / 2021 - Canada

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Hoodie, Apr 12, 2020.

  1. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    2,418
    ^^^^
    If we’re not moving internationally by next northern hemisphere winter we are in for massive economic pain.
    It’ll happen.
     
    Captain Caveman likes this.
  2. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    I'd say you're right. Vaccine will be just starting to take effect on a widespread basis, but lots of uncertainty given no one knows how long immunity lasts after vaccination.
     
  3. main street

    main street Doing what I want. Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    72,135
    Likes Received:
    10,207
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
  4. main street

    main street Doing what I want. Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    72,135
    Likes Received:
    10,207
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
    I doubt the Canadian Govt gives a shit about travel bubbles right now....... It has larger issues to deal with first.

    The simple fact is that US land border will open first as part of a phased approach..... There will not be a switch flicked signaling an open free for all.

    Once Australians are free to travel to Canada, the US/CAN border will already be open.

    The US / CAN border will not open for tourism this side of the end of March given the infection numbers on both sides of the border,...... Possibly into June depending on vaccine status.
     
    Chalkie, Sbooker and Telemark Phat like this.
  5. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,584
    Likes Received:
    22,556
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    Talks of trvel bubbles are moot if BC's covid stats are increasing unfortunately.

    And the US is full of so many Trimpys yjayt who knows how many will refuse to take a vaccine even if it is effective
     
  6. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    I think it will take until this time next year to get the vaccine distributed widely enough to make a difference. Case counts will slow down over summer with everyone outdoors and then as fall begins we'll wait to see if cases will take off again like this year or if they just trickle in with reasonable herd immunity being achieved.
     
    #206 sly_karma, Nov 21, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
    Val Desire, Chalkie and main street like this.
  7. Chalkie

    Chalkie A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    5,246
    Likes Received:
    8,632
    Location:
    Vancouver, Canada
    We should do some predictions and see which ends up being the most accurate.

    This is my prediction about the timeline:

    1. Pfizer & Moderna vaccines approved by Health Canada late January / early February 2021.
    2. First vaccinations to priority recipients (health care workers & first priority vulnerable (care homes)) in March 2021.
    3. Rollout progressively through essential workers & second priority vulnerable April to June.
    4. Rest of us punters from July onwards.

    I think I read somewhere that north of 70% vaccine coverage / other immunity (eg, prior infection) is necessary for reasonable herd immunity. Fingers crossed there is a high take up rate from the outset.
     
  8. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    2,418
    I have no idea really but I’m counting on being able to fly from Brisbane to Vancouver by next December so I hope you’re right.
     
    Roymond, Ret-ro and Chalkie like this.
  9. aazz

    aazz One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2012
    Messages:
    681
    Likes Received:
    2,299
    Location:
    Hunter Valley
  10. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,584
    Likes Received:
    22,556
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    I hope you are correct.

    Now from the Oz perspective, if Pfizer start rolling theirs out in January, will the Oz governemt switch to Pfizer, expedite their Oxford/CSL supply or keep sitting until ours is ready
     
    #210 gareth_oau, Nov 22, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2020
    Chalkie likes this.
  11. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    2,418
    I believe they’ve ordered the Pfizer vaccine so I assume they will use it as soon as it’s available.
     
  12. Roymond

    Roymond One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2018
    Messages:
    870
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    I think they’ll snaffle whatever they can get. CSL is already manufacturing the Oxford vaccine. We’ve got 20 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine prepurchased.
    What will most likely happen is they will advise different vaccines for different groups- the more traditional vaccine (uq molecular clamp) for kids and pregnant women, mRNA for oldies , Oxford vaccine for rural/remote that won’t need such a restrictive cold chain requirement and whatever the in betweens (mostly us) can get their hands on.
     
    Val Desire, sly_karma and gareth_oau like this.
  13. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    1,409
    Likes Received:
    1,383
    I am with you.
     
    Roymond likes this.
  14. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    Generally agree with this timeline prediction. Seems reasonable to expect a slowdown in virus spread over the summer as we had this year, so vaccine effects will be hard to assess until the weather cools off and everyone moves back inside again. Next October we will all be wondering if cases are about to ramp up again and the coming ski season will have a lot of questions to be answered. Hopefully November comes and goes with no leap in cases, just low level bumps here and there that are handled with contact tracing and isolation as we do now. There won't be a light switch moment when we go from pandemic to healthy all at once.
     
    Roymond and Chalkie like this.
  15. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,584
    Likes Received:
    22,556
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    So how many of the trump brigade will refuse to get vaccinated? LOL
     
  16. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2001
    Messages:
    38,135
    Likes Received:
    20,316
    Location:
    macdonaldtown
    presumably not those who think it's a hoax, so the ICUs will still echo to the sound of 'it doesn't exist!'
     
  17. main street

    main street Doing what I want. Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    72,135
    Likes Received:
    10,207
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
  18. Captain Caveman

    Captain Caveman Early Days

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2020
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    26
    Just hard to imagine why so high still in BC and Alberta. NSW , day 18 with no cases. (0). Alberta over 1000 everyday.
     
  19. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    Almost winter, everyone is indoors a lot more now.
     
    Chalkie and Captain Caveman like this.
  20. Chalkie

    Chalkie A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    5,246
    Likes Received:
    8,632
    Location:
    Vancouver, Canada
    In both provinces there is significant non-compliance with the public health guidelines, for different reasons. Put bluntly, people are gathering indoors and taking the piss. BC is trying to encourage people to comply, and is taking half-arsed steps to try and flatten the curve (compulsory masks in interior public places and where physical distancing isn't possible), shutdown of some of the more egregious spreaders (gym and dance classes and some other bits and pieces) and continued earnest encouragement from our Chief Health Officer, Dr Bonnie Henry, to do the right thing. As much as I admire Dr Henry, I think she needs to get her tough shoes on and start kicking some heads. That said, I can't see her exercising her considerable powers under the Public Health Act to order a provincial shut down again to try and bring case numbers under control.

    Alberta isn't really interested in trying to do anything that would control the spread of Covid if interferes with the economy. I think there's an observable cause and effect in Alberta between government inaction to manage the pandemic and the growth in case numbers.
     
    Captain Caveman likes this.
  21. Chalkie

    Chalkie A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    5,246
    Likes Received:
    8,632
    Location:
    Vancouver, Canada
    Anyway, Covid aside, today was my first visit to Whistler this season. We made our reservation last week based on a more than three days out weather forecast, which is always a bit of a risk. Last week today was predicted to have sunny breaks, but they came a little later than expected. So we had rain on the drive up the Sea to Sky, which switched to snow when we reached Whistler, and then the weather throughout the day was mixed, but mostly cloudy with a couple of brief snow showers. Hence I didn't really get any decent photo opps. Here's a shot of a break in the weather:



    As a Vail resort, reservations are required to ski at Whistler. Passholders got early access to the system to make reservations for the peak season (so we have a week booked in late January), but early season up to 7 December is first in, first served. Wednesday and Friday this week are already "sold out" (the weather for the rest of the week is clear and sunny).

    We parked at Creekside in the underground parking as is our custom for day trips. Parking was easy - crowds were light. On exiting the carpark on foot, there were Whistler staff invigilators reminding everyone that nose and mouth face coverings were required for the gondola line and on all lifts.

    The single party per cabin rule meant for a slow gondola loading. Similarly, the lift lines - particularly big capacity lifts like the Emerald Express (six seater detachable high speed chair) are affected by the single party rule, although once we were on the mountain the longest line we encountered was only 10 mins.

    Reservations are also required for dining. For larger capacity locations like the Roundhouse, reservations open at 7am each day. We made our lunch ressie right on the dot of 7am immediately before walking out the door of home. Anyone who's tried to get a table in a place like the Roundhouse will appreciate the convenience of a reservation system, but that of course comes at a price, namely a greatly limited menu from what is usually on offer, and lots of physical distancing. Anyone who's eaten upstairs at the Roundhouse will know that this is a very different scene from the usual carnage of people hurling themselves at anything resembling a vacant spot at a table:



    And to the skiing: luckily, there was a decent fall last night (15cm) so there was plenty of fresh snow and good cover for the beginning of the season. The high alpine (Symphony, Harmony, Whistler Peak, 7th Heaven) did not open, but there was good skiing from midstation up to the Roundhouse (we stayed on the Whistler side today). As it was day 1 for the season we took it fairly easy, although we did take a wrong turn and ended up taking a rather more challenging course (Upper Dave Murray Downhill and an ungroomed Tokum) than we were planning to get back to the lift (which tired us out a bit!).

    The attention to Covid physical protocols is fairly consistent, although enforcement of face coverings in lift lines varied a bit, depending on who was doing the invigilation - some staff were more vigilant than others.

    The drive home was pretty spectacular - we had clear weather on the Sea to Sky and a beautiful sunset. These were taken at the Mount Tantulus lookout:


     
    Val Desire, MarzNC, GlendaN and 6 others like this.
  22. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    26,776
    Likes Received:
    16,352
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Sigh. Great shots.
     
    Chalkie likes this.
  23. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,584
    Likes Received:
    22,556
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    has this been an ongoing attitude or has it evolved since news of a vaccine?

    It makes you wonder if they have seen WA statistics. fortunate because we are an islamd within an island, but great compliance and attitude too
     
    GlendaN likes this.
  24. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    People underestimate the effect of weather. The pandemic was announced during spring school holidays, and everyone did as they were asked and it all went very quiet. By May, when reopening started, the weather was great and everyone learned to socialise outdoors. In summer, Canadians flocked to BC in record numbers. Camping, boating, dirt biking, hiking, mountain biking, fishing etc were all seeing record equipment sales. Pubs and restaurants and hotels caught up on some of the losses from the spring. The only restrictions were bans on assemblies of 50 or more. Masks were rarely seen, yet BC had case numbers that were the envy of all North America. We were lauded for our balance between open economy and low virus spread.

    Then came fall and the end of outdoor living for most people. Our casual attitudes were ingrained by this time, and reinforced by the daily delivery of good news from Dr Bonnie and the TV images of medical system mayhem in the US. In September we were consumed with reopening of schools, and when that passed with little downside, we were once again reassured that we were doing it right. But the deleterious effects of air flow, heat and UV on the virus were no longer there to cover up our laxity. October brought Thanksgiving and Halloween, and people did their usual thing despite pleas to the contrary. Now of course the gatherings were largely indoors, and the virus fell on fertile ground. October was when the damage was done, with the case numbers spiking hard during November.

    In summer it really wasn't that hard to live "normally", but the messaging was telling us that we were making sacrifices - and winning. Now a lot more is being asked of us and the fatigue is very apparent. We're not getting away with it anymore because we keep socializing inside and the nice airtight homes I build with central heat systems efficiently distribute the virus. Compliance with masking is quite good in public - the vocal contrarians are a tiny minority - but the problem is people are having small private get togethers of family or friends, and no one wears masks at those. People trust their family and close friends at the social and human level and don't get that the virus neither knows nor cares who is family or trusted friend.

    Spring is four long months away, and vaccines won't hit in sufficient numbers to make a difference during that time; it will be well into summer before we get the 70% uptake needed. Canada is facing a long dark winter indeed.
     
    MarzNC, gareth_oau, GlendaN and 6 others like this.
  25. main street

    main street Doing what I want. Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    72,135
    Likes Received:
    10,207
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
  26. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2005
    Messages:
    21,617
    Likes Received:
    13,971
    Location:
    Penticton, BC
    I know you guys would like to drive south, but really our day to day lives are unaffected by the border closure. Trade is flowing as well as it can given the covid precautions. It was a momentous thing when the border closed in March because it hadn't happened before, but most people don't give it a second thought now.
     
  27. main street

    main street Doing what I want. Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    72,135
    Likes Received:
    10,207
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
    We're ok with the border being closed actually,.... We made the call to not drive down to Mexico through the US quite some time ago.....

    What we may consider is a flight into Cancun from Calgary and rent a car to get back to Celestun..... But that will be late March at best and we'd only stay for 2 - 3 weeks.

    Late 2021 trip planning is already underway and if we have to fly down, we'll do that...... We are also exploring options of a focus shift back to the Baja,.... San Felipe on the northern end and Loreto for a more central/lower area on the Baja..... Part of a 5 year plan at this point and that will make the drive easier.
     
    Chalkie and sly_karma like this.